U.S. Immigrant Population Continues to Grow

According to Pew Research Center, the immigrant population in the United States was 40.4 million, a record high for the country.  In 2011, the 13% of immigrants living in the United States was slightly lower than the nation's peak at 15%, which occurred between 1890 and 1920.  The 40.4 million immigrants in the United States are distinctly comprised of Latin Americans (50%) and Asians (27%), as opposed to the influx of European immigrants in the period between 1890 and 1920.

The population of unauthorized immigrants, a segment of the 40.4 million immigrants in the United States, were down slightly since 2007, from 12 million to 11.1 in 2011.  Highlighting other trends relating to unauthorized immigration, Pew links to further analysis in other articles, which can be found here.

40 Years of Roe v Wade

Wednesday marks the 40^th anniversary of the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark decision in Roe v Wade regarding the legality of abortions.  The Economist’s Daily Chart notes this anniversary by highlighting the trends in abortions and abortion-related deaths in the United States since 1965.  The graph to the right illustrates an oft-overlooked statistic: although Roe v Wade is the national milestone for abortion rights, abortion laws had already been liberalized in fifteen states three years earlier.  In fact, abortion-related deaths saw an extreme decline between 1970 and the 1973 Supreme Court ruling, from roughly 140 deaths in 1970 to approximately 40 in 1973.  In a similar trend, abortions per 1,000 women aged 15-44 began to steeply increase in 1969 and continued at a similar increase throughout the 1970s.

Since 1980, abortions have been on a steady decline, from almost 240 per 1,000 women to less than 20 in 2008. The Economist also points out that many states have been attempting to curb abortion rates in their states, introducing 135 provisions and regulations in the past two years.  In addition, sixteen states retain laws which would ban abortions if Roe v Wade were ever overturned.

The Economist's article primarily used data from the US Census Bureau's Statistical Abstract, found here.

Positive Momentum in Economic Confidence

A recent report released by Gallup Economy indicates that Americans' confidence in the US economy is the highest it has been in four years.  The monthly average of economic confidence in November (-13) is significantly improved from confidence levels recorded during the onset of the Great Recession in January 2008 (-32).  Throughout the month of November, Economic Confidence was relatively stable, ranging from a high (-10) in the week leading up to the presidential election and dropping slightly toward the end of the month (-15) as the fiscal cliff approaches.

The Gallop Economic Confidence Index determines monthly averages of economic confidence by averaging Americans' interpretation of current economic conditions and their future expectations for the US economy. Although in November more Americans viewed the economy as "poor" (38%) than "excellent" or "good" (17%) and the net score of Americans' opinions of the current US economy was negative (-11), the average rating of the current US economic conditions in November was the highest it had been since March 2008 (-20).  Additionally, while more Americans believe that the US economy is getting worse (50%) rather than better (45%) for an economic outlook net score of (-5), the economic outlook score is steadily improving.   Therefore, while Americans' assessment of the current economy and their economic outlook is bleak, it is the best it has been nearly five years.

Certain subgroups of the American population are more confident in the US economy.  Notably, Democrat (30), Black (30), Hispanic (6), and 18-29 year old (3) Americans reported the highest levels of confidence in the US economy, whereas married (-20), elderly  (-23) White (-23) and Republican (-59) Americans expressed the least confidence in the US economy.

Chinese Public Expresses Concern over US Relations

Despite China’s vast economic growth, many citizens are concerned for the state of the nation. Concerns regarding food safety, corruption, income inequality, and relations with the US were at the top of the public's list of worries. Food safety is a paramount issue for the country. In 2008 only 12% of those surveyed considered food safety a very big problem. Over the past 4 years, this figure increased by nearly 30 percentage points, with 41% reporting that they worry about the safety of their food.  The Chinese public is also concerned about corrupt officials. About half of those polled reported that corruption was a large problem for the country. Additionally, the growing inequality between the rich and poor is a huge problem in the minds of Chinese citizens. When asked whether they agreed that in China “it’s really true that the rich just get richer while the poor get poorer”, 81% completely agreed or mostly agreed. 

Their concerns are not isolated to the state of domestic affairs. Many Chinese express growing reluctance to work with the US. In 2010, 68% of those surveyed said the country’s relationship with the US was one of cooperation, but in 2012 only 39% adopted this same view. Moreover, in 2010, 52% of those surveyed expressed confidence in Obama. In 2012, this figure dropped to 38%. Although these figures may seem to be a cause for concern for the Obama administration, it is important to note that many Chinese people still support American ideas about democracy. A majority of Chinese people between the ages of 18-49 support American ideas concerning democracy and when broken down by education, 65% of those with some college also embrace these key values.

Cigarette Use Declining in the U.S.

In the United States, smokers are lighting up less than ever.  Gallup reports that since the 1970s, cigarette smokers that smoke more than a pack a day have steadily decreased, reaching their lowest point yet measured.  This all-time low coincides with this year's tie with 2009 for lowest cigarette usage among American adults; Gallup reports that one in five  lit up in the past week.  To anti-smoking advocates looking forward, these surveys represent success with struggles on the horizon; the study underscores the fact that most smokers know the negative effects of tobacco use, decreasing the usefulness of media campaigns that highlight the negative effects of smoking.  This in turn makes recommendations concerning tobacco control programs being brought to CDC-recommended levels require further analysis.  The question remains as to whether spending more money to bring states into compliance would bring a significant impact on tobacco usage or not.

U.S. Naturalization

The Economist's recent Daily Chart depicts the number of naturalizations that occurred over the past decade in a handful of countries.  The graph also displays the proportion of each country's population that is foreign born.


The nations that naturalized the most citizens were the United States, Russia, and Canada. With a figure of 6.6 million, the United States naturalized the most citizens from 2001-2010. Russia comes in second, with about half as many naturalizations at 3.1 million people, while Canada follows with just under 2 million naturalized citizens in just as many years. Other countries with more than a million naturalized immigrants are Britain, France, and Germany.

However, the countries that naturalized the most immigrants are not necessarily the ones whose populations have the greatest proportion of foreign born people.  For example, while the United States conferred citizenship on 6.6 million individuals in the past decade, immigrants only account for 13% of its total population.  On the other hand, Australia and Switzerland naturalized 1 million and about 0.4 million people, but both their foreign born populations constitute 27% of the total population, the most of any countries depicted in the graphic.  Countries with other high proportions of foreign born people are New Zealand (23%), Canada (20%), Spain (15%), and Sweden (15%).

Minorities Now Account for The Majority of Births in the U.S.

This past Thursday, the Census Bureau announced that white births now account for less than half of all births in the United States.  For the first time, minorities account for the majority of births (50.4%).  Dr. William H. Frey, SSDAN Director and senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, explained, “This is an important tipping point.”  He described the trend as a “transformation from a mostly white baby boomer culture to the more globalized multiethnic country that we are becoming.  Sabrina Tavernise of The New York Times writes that Hispanics, blacks, and Asians accounted for 26%, 15%, and 4% respectively of births in the year ending in July 2011.  Still, though, whites represent 49.6% of all births – the single largest share of any ethnicity.  Dr. Frey also discovered another interesting fact: minorities accounted for a whopping 92 percent of all population growth in the decade ending in 2010.  You can read the full New York Times article here, which goes more into detail on historical implications and on what else may have contributed to this fascinating trend.

One in Two Youth in Spain is Unemployed

Business Insider’s Chart of the Day for May 2^nd highlighted a graph from Scott Barber and Thomson Reuters depicting youth unemployment rates in Europe.  Greece and Spain both possessed the highest rate, with more than one in two youth being unemployed.  These two nations are followed by Portugal Italy, and Ireland, with youth unemployment rates of 36.1%, 35.9%, and 30.3% respectively.  Germany, on the other hand, has weathered the economic recession quite well, and its youth unemployment rate has actually decreased since the recession began.  In comparison to the United States’ 16.4% rate, Germany, Malta, Austria, and the Netherlands are the only nations in the EU27 with a lower youth unemployment rate.  Overall, the Euro area possesses a 22.1% youth unemployment rate.

Global Wellbeing: U.S. Fails to Make Top 10

The U.S. failed to round out the top 10 among countries where residents were "thriving," according to Gallup's Well-Being Index. Denmark took the top spot, with 74% of residents rating their current and future lives high enough to be classified as thriving. Canada, The Netherlands, Israel, and Sweden rounded out the top 5. In the United States, 56% rated their lives well enough to be classified as thriving. Cambodia came in last, with only 2% of residents "thriving." Comoros, Laos, Togo, and Afghanistan rounded out the bottom 5. Ghana experienced a 19 percentage point gain, the largest gain among the countries, to bring the total percentage of residents thriving to 29%. El Salvador experienced the greatest decline from 2010, losing 22 percentage points and decreasing to 17%.

Amnesty International Releases Report on Executions and Death Sentences Around the World

Last week, Amnesty International released its report on death sentences and executions for 2011.  The report finds that China executed the most people, with reported executions numbered in the thousands (the true number of executions is unknown in China, due to the fact that the government does not publicize the exact figures).  Next was Iran, which executed over 360 men and women, followed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United States, with 82, 68 and 42 executions respectively. The report finds that the number of countries that imposed death sentences and carried out executions dropped marginally from 2010 to 2011.  Amnesty International also notes that the United States remains the only G8 country to utilize executions, and that 20 nations continue to partake in judicial killings.  

Female Economic Advancement

The Economist's recent Graphic Detail post "Where to Be Female" discusses the results of the annual Women’s Economic Opportunity Index recently published by the Economist Intelligence Unit.  According to the report published by the Economist Intelligence Unit, "women are a key driver of economic growth" as their entry into the workforce has coincided with GDP growth in both the United States and Europe, yet "nearly one-half of working women are not currently active in the formal global economy."  The Women’s Economic Opportunity Index seeks to assess women's entry into the workforce and economic advancement using data released by a variety of major international organizations, including the United Nations and International Monetary Fund.  The Index ranges from 0 to 100 (100 being most favorable) and ranks 128 different countries.  As the chart from the Economist’s website shows (below), Sweden received the most favorable ranking of 90.4, followed by Norway and Finland at 88.3 and 88.2 respectively.  The United States was ranked 14^that 78.4, only slightly below the United Kingdom, which was ranked 13^that 78.9.  Sudan and Chad received the worse ranking (128^th and 127^th) with scores of 19.2 and 23.3 respectively.

GDP Growth Predictions Indicate Sluggish Recovery, but Possible Return to Form In 2013 For Some Economies

Each month, The Economist asks a group of renowned economists to forecast GDP growth in 2012 and 2013.  Of the fourteen countries/regions considered in the March poll (one of which is the entire Euro area), Japan is the only nation expected to have a higher GDP growth in ’12 than in ’13.  This discrepancy is due to massive spending on earthquake-related reconstruction, as well as the government’s new policy of subsidizing energy-efficient cars.  Australia is predicted to have the highest GDP growth of all the countries, topping off at a 3.1% increase in 2012, and a 3.3% increase in 2013.  Italy and Spain performed the worst in the poll, due to great uncertainty regarding both countries’ financial stability.  Economists predict that the United States will have a 2.1% GDP growth rate in 2012, and a slightly higher 2.2% rate in 2013.  The Euro area is expected to endure negative GDP growth in the current year, with an average prediction of -0.6% change.  While it seems that the polled economists view the world to be on its way to recovery, they still view it to be an uphill battle.  The sluggish rebound from the Great Recession is characterized by the 1.4% average growth predicted in 2012, but the picture does look brighter in 2013.  The averages point to a return to form for many of the major economies around the world in 2013; however, other countries such as Italy, Spain and France are expected to remain hindered by the recession and its wide-ranging effects.   

Years Lost to the Financial Crisis

In the daily chart for February 23^rd, The Economist analyzed various economic indicators to determine how many years were lost to the financial crisis of 2008.  The data covers economic output, wealth, and labor markets.  With these figures, The Economist calculates, in economic terms, what year each country is in.  For instance, the United States’ GDP per person was higher in 2005 than it is today, its main stock market index is lower today than in 1999, and based on all the indicators, the nation has traveled back in time roughly ten years.  The worst performing country of all those considered was Greece; based on the indicators, the country would just be reaching the new millennium.  Of course, as lawmakers in Greece fight to alleviate the effects of the debt crisis, reaching the millennium in economic terms may still be quite a struggle.  Germany has weathered the storm best of all the countries evaluated; the financial crisis has set the country back to approximately 2009. 

World's Best Organ Donors

Yesterday's daily chart from The Economist compared organ donation rates across selected countries. The subject of organ donation has been in the news recently, as the British Medical Association suggested this week that Great Britain change from an opt-in system to the opt-out system more commonly featured throughout Europe. The opt-in system gives individuals the opportunity to sign up for organ donation, but does not assume that they are otherwise willing to donate; the opt-out system, on the other hand, assumes individuals are willing to donate their organs unless they opt out.

As The Economist points out, however, differences in rates may have more to do with "culture and capacity...than legal regimes." After all, "Spain has an opt-out system and leads the league with around 32 deceased donors per million people; but so does Greece, and it lurks near the bottom with four. Americans, like Britons, have an opt-in system, but also one of the highest total donation rates in the world."

Number of Uninsured Americans on the Rise

More Americans are now uninsured in 2011 than in 2008, according to a recent Gallup poll. The declining number of Americans who have health insurance has been evident in most population groups, with the exception of younger adults and seniors whose decline rate was within the margin of error. For those who are fortunate enough to have insurance, fewer of them are receiving it from their employer, likely because the employer can not afford to provide insurance or because the employee can not afford to purchase insurance.  Many factors are likely at play in the steady increase of the uninsured. As Gallup reports, while the unemployment rate may be lower in 2011 than in 2008, many more Americans still remain underemployed and thus unable to afford insurance. Health care costs are also continuing to rise with no end in sight, indicating that this trend is likely to continue.

8.1% Unemployment Predicted for Fourth Quarter

A survey conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserveinvolving 45 economic forecasters estimated that with current trends, unemployment is likely to drop to 8.1% by the fourth quarter. This poll shows an upward trend in the forecasting of economic prospects. A similar poll conducted in November projected unemployment averaging 8.7% in the fourth quarter. This optimism about the future of the nation’s economy is not necessarily unfounded. As of January the employment rate declined to 8.3%, a major improvement from November’s unemployment rate of 8.7%.

U.S. Projected to Decrease Foreign Oil Dependence

On Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released the Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release.  This report provides projections for the U.S. energy markets under the assumption that current energy laws and regulations stay fairly unchanged.  This information can be used to discuss the current state and trends of the energy market for the ultimate goal of analyzing and identifying necessary changes in energy policies, rules, and regulations moving forward.

The AEO report presented a projected decrease in dependence on foreign oil in the United States.  Figure 1 from the AEO is shown below and illustrates the anticipated closing gap between U.S. fuel consumption and domestic fuel supply.  At its peak in 2005, 60% of fuel consumed in the U.S. was imported.  This percentage decreased to 49% in 2010, and the EIA believes this trend will continue until 2035 when foreign fuel will constitute only 36% of fuel consumed in the United States.  This trend is due to increased domestic fuel supply from growth in domestic oil production as well as limited increases in consumption due to increased use of biofuels, moderate growth in the transportation industry’s demands, and higher fuel economy standards in vehicles.