Positive Momentum in Economic Confidence

A recent report released by Gallup Economy indicates that Americans' confidence in the US economy is the highest it has been in four years.  The monthly average of economic confidence in November (-13) is significantly improved from confidence levels recorded during the onset of the Great Recession in January 2008 (-32).  Throughout the month of November, Economic Confidence was relatively stable, ranging from a high (-10) in the week leading up to the presidential election and dropping slightly toward the end of the month (-15) as the fiscal cliff approaches.

The Gallop Economic Confidence Index determines monthly averages of economic confidence by averaging Americans' interpretation of current economic conditions and their future expectations for the US economy. Although in November more Americans viewed the economy as "poor" (38%) than "excellent" or "good" (17%) and the net score of Americans' opinions of the current US economy was negative (-11), the average rating of the current US economic conditions in November was the highest it had been since March 2008 (-20).  Additionally, while more Americans believe that the US economy is getting worse (50%) rather than better (45%) for an economic outlook net score of (-5), the economic outlook score is steadily improving.   Therefore, while Americans' assessment of the current economy and their economic outlook is bleak, it is the best it has been nearly five years.

Certain subgroups of the American population are more confident in the US economy.  Notably, Democrat (30), Black (30), Hispanic (6), and 18-29 year old (3) Americans reported the highest levels of confidence in the US economy, whereas married (-20), elderly  (-23) White (-23) and Republican (-59) Americans expressed the least confidence in the US economy.

Deteriorating Jobs Outlook Across the EU

Across the European Union, the jobs outlook is steadily worsening. According to a Gallup report, over 90% of citizens in Greece (98%), Italy (95%), Spain (94%), and Ireland (92%) think that it is a "bad time" to find a job in their area. The majority of citizens in 25 of the 27 countries in the European Union report a pessimistic job outlook. This finding coincides with Eurostat's findings that the EU is currently experiencing some of the highest unemployment levels ever recorded in Europe. Countries with the most staggering unemployment rates include Spain (23.8%), Greece (25.1%), Latvia (15.9%), Portugal (15.7%), Ireland (15.1%), and Slovakia (13.9%). The jobs outlook across the EU has worsened since 2011, and in recent months (August 2012-September 2012), unemployment levels have continued to decrease. Since 2011, the jobs outlook has gotten significantly worse in Finland, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Belgium, Sweden, France, Austria, Denmark, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom.

It is important to note that since 2011, there have been improvements in the jobs outlook in Latvia and Estonia. Additionally, the majority of Germans (46% compared to 43%) and approximately 1/3 of Swedes (32%) and Austrians (35%) feel that it is a "good time" to find a job in their country. Comparatively, 25% of Americans feel it is a "good time" to find jobs in their area. Also, the estimated percentage of the population that is employed by a full time employer has remained stable in most EU countries in 2012.

However, the countries that have severely pessimistic jobs outlooks also have the lowest percentage of full-time employees. Less than 1 in 3 adults are employed full time in Greece, Romania, Italy, Belgium, Spain, and Ireland. Because of the decreasing percentage of the population that is employed full time, the tax-base is shrinking. Therefore, countries across the EU are not just facing high unemployment levels and dismal job outlooks; they are facing long-term economic instability.

National Job Creation Remains Steady

The Gallop Job Creation Index averaged around +19 in October.  The Job Creation Index is obtained from surveying employees’ perceptions of workplace hiring and firing.  The percentage of employers who are firing is subtracted from the percentage of employers who are hiring. For the month of October, 35% of respondents said that their employers were expanding their workforce and 16% of respondents indicated that their employers were reducing their workforce.  These estimates of hiring and firing nationwide have remained steady in recent months, as the Job Creation Index has stayed in between +16 and +20 for the majority of 2012.

Regionally, employers in the Midwest (+23) and the South (+19) are consistently hiring and expanding more than employers in the East (+16) and West (+16).  In addition, nongovernment employers continue to score higher on the Job Creation Index (+22) than public-sector employers (+4).  However, in October, federal government employers (+8 percentage change) and state government employers (+5 percentage change) showed a significantly greater increase in Job Creation Index scores than private sector employers (+1 percentage change).  

Ultimately, nationally, the Gallop Job Creation Index remains steady and positive. However, the nation’s net-hiring score has not yet been restored to its pre-Recession 2008 peak (+26).  It is predicted that in response to the 2012 election, hiring and firing averages will fluctuate. If government leaders are able to effectively respond to economic challenges and implement national policies that boost employers’ confidence in the economy, it can be expected that the nation’s net-hiring score will improve.  

More Chinese Women in Labor Force than Indian Women

Recent findings released by Gallupindicate that China’s female labor force participation rate (70%) is significantly greater than India’s (25%).  Not only are Indian women less likely to be present in their country’s labor force than Chinese women, women in India’s labor force are three times more likely to be unemployed (with an unemployment rate of 15%) than their Chinese counterparts (with an unemployment rate of 5%). Furthermore, women in China are nearly twice as likely to be employed full-time than women in India (21% verses 11%).  In addition, 53% of highly educated Chinese women reportedly hold a “good job” whereas only 17% of Indian women who received tertiary education maintain a “good job”.  There are also significant discrepancies in the literacy rates of Chinese females (91%) and the Indian females (50%).   In sum, Chinese women are much more likely to receive even a basic education than Indian women, and, among Chinese and Indian women who receive higher education, Chinese women are much more likely to find full-time employment. While the Chinese economy (with a 9% growth rate) is currently out-performing India’s economy, (with a 6.8% growth rate) China’s growth is expected to stall due to low fertility rates and an aging population. On the other hand, India’s population of working-aged citizens is expected to steadily increase until about 2030 and this can lead to major economic growth if India encourages greater female labor force participation.  

Worldwide Views of Immigration

Recently released findings from a Gallup survey reveal which nations view their communities as good places for immigrants to live. While adults from 146 countries participated in the survey, citizens of New Zealand, (89%) Paraguay, (88%) and Canada (88%) demonstrated the strongest belief that their communities would be good locales for immigrants. Regionally, residents of the Americas, (71%) Europe, (67%) and Sub-Saharan Africa (66%) were most likely to view their communities as a good destination for immigrants. Most migrants cite countries in North America and Europe as their preferred destination; in accordance, countries in these regions are major receiving countries for immigrants. Few potential migrants cite countries in Sub-Saharan Africa as their desired destination. Therefore, citizens of Sub-Saharan countries are likely to have expressed the belief that their communities are good destinations for immigrants because of the high-volume of cross-border migration that occurs within these countries.

Citizens of Asian nations (42%) and Middle Eastern and North African countries (48) were least likely to view their communities as good destinations for immigrants.  Specifically, citizens of Malaysia (77%) and Thailand (76%) demonstrated the greatest consensus that their communities would not be a good place for immigrants to live.

Most Americans Favor Quick Removal of U.S.Troops from Afghanistan

A recent public opinion poll suggests that Americans are increasingly pessimistic about developments in the Middle East.  This report released by Pew Research Center found that the majority of Americans (60%) believe that U.S. troops should leave Afghanistan as quickly as possible.  This number has significantly increased since May 2011, when only 48% of Americans supported quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  According to the survey issued October 4-7, 2012, 73% of Democrats support quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  The majority of Independents (58%) similarly support a quick troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.  However, Republicans remain divided, as 48% believe that U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan until the country is stabilized. Overall, only 35% of Americans believe that U.S. troops should stay in Afghanistan until the country has stabilized.  The presidential candidates will likely respond to American’s growing pessimism about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan as they debate foreign policy tonight in the final presidential debate. 

The Number of Uninsured Americans Age 18-25 Continues to Decline

A report on Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index indicates that the amount of uninsured 18-25 year-old Americans is decreasing.  The number of uninsured 18-25 year-old Americans began to decline (from 28% to 26.3%) in the fourth quarter of 2010, after the passage of the Affordable Care Act.  This act allowed Americans up to age 26 to stay on their parents’ healthcare plan.  Currently, 23.2% of 18-25 year-old Americans are uninsured.  While the passage of the Affordable Care Act had a significant impact on reducing the number of uninsured 18-25 year-olds, the number of uninsured 24-64 year-olds (20%) is increasing and the amount of uninsured Americans over 65 (3%) has not changed significantly.  The increasing amount of 26-64 year-old uninsured Americans can be attributed to high levels of unemployment and the decreasing employee benefits.  For instance, currently only about 44.8% of Americans receive employer-based coverage whereas 49.8% received employer-based coverage in January, 2008. In accordance, since January 2008, more Americans receive their health insurance coverage from a government plan (25.3% compared to. 22.9%) and more Americans are uninsured (16.9% compared 14.6%).  But, it is important to note that that number of uninsured Americans over 26 can be expected to decrease once additional ramifications of the Affordable Care Act go into effect in 2014.   
 

South Sudan Makes Strides in Education

A report recently released by the World Bank shows positive trends in the educational system of South Sudan. Between 2005 and 2009, roughly 700,000 more children were registered for school. The chances of a child going to school are also up by 20% compared to 10 years ago. Although there is reason to be optimistic about South Sudan’s educational system, it is evident that South Sudan is still struggling to catch up to other African countries. The country still faces the challenge of reaching children in poor rural areas and increasing the quality of the educational system since each salaried teacher, on average, has 80 children in their classroom. Additionally, the state also faces the challenge of evenly allocating the teachers to the states. Only about 32% of the teachers in Jonglei, the largest and most populous state in South Sudan, are government funded and 84% are government funded in Eastern Equatoria.