Housing Starts and Prices Rise


The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development’s September report on new residential construction illustrated a 15% jump in housing starts.  The annual rate rose to 872,000 in September compared to 758,000 in August – the highest level in four years.  The 872,000 new residential construction projects is well below the heavily inflated annual rate of over 2 million, which was the norm while the housing bubble remained intact.  Housing starts bottomed out in mid-2009 at 478,000, but have since rebounded nicely.  Coupled with housing starts is housing prices, a figure that is highly important in understanding the overall housing market in America.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, a measure of home prices in 20 major metropolitan regions in the U.S., showed a 2.0% increase in prices from August 2011.  This is the largest increase in two years, and represents three straight months of year-over-year gains.  

Serimuka Labu Pulut Hitam (Steamed Black Glutinous with Pumpkin Topping)

 Beautiful looking kuih with all natural colors..... The topping taste just nice by its own but not sweet enough when matched with the plain glutinous rice layer, hence I have slightly increased the sugar measurement below. My bottom layer is slightly softer than what I wanted but this can easily be fixed next time. Overall, I think this is an average taste.....

By: Roz@HomeKreation
Size: 8" round
BOTTOM LAYER:
1 cup Black Glutinous Rice - wash & soak 10 min 
1/2 cup White Glutinous Rice - wash & soak 30 min / more 
1/2 cup Coconut Milk + 1/4 tsp Salt

TOP LAYER:
1 cup Pumpkin Puree (mash steamed pumpkin & measure) 
3/4 cup Sugar
1/2 cup Plain Flour
1 tbsp Hoen Kwee Flour
2 tbsp Rice Flour
1 cup Coconut Milk
1 Egg
1/2 tsp Salt

METHOD:
1. Boil black glutinous rice until cooked (tips: water level fully cover the rice).

2. Steam white glutinous rice for 10 minutes.
Sprinkle with coconut milk and add in the cooked black glutinous rice.
Mix well and steam for 15 minutes until rice is done.

3. Blend all the bottom layer ingredients until smooth.
Heat up for a while & pour onto the rice layer.
Press down the rice layer to firm it before pouring the top batter.
Steam 30 minutes or until cooked with low fire.

4. Cool the kuih completely at room temperature before slicing. 

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Kuih yg nampak cantik menarik tapi Along rasa ia nya agak sederhana. Terpulang pada citarasa masing2, mungkin bagi peminat kuih talam ia nya menarik. Lapisan atas tu Along buat sederhana manis dan bila di gandingkan dgn lapisan pulut yg agak tawar perlukan lebih manis lagi, jadi Along dah tambahkan sedikit lagi gula dalam resepi di bawah di bandingkan dgn sukatan yg Along buat pada mula nya.

By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation
Saiz: 8" bulat
LAPISAN BAWAH:
1 cwn Pulut Hitam - basuh & rendam 10 min 
1/2 cwn Pulut - basuh & rendam 30 min / lebih 
1/2 cwn Santan + 1/4 st Garam

LAPISAN ATAS:
1 cwn Labu Lecek (kukus labu, lecek & sukat) 
3/4 cwn Gula
1/2 cwn Tepung Gandum
1 sb Tepung Hoen Kwee
2 sb Tepung Beras
1 cwn Santan
1 bj Telur
1/2 st Garam

CARA2:
1. Rebus pulut hitam, dgn air yg cukup utk tenggelamkan beras pulut, sehingga masak.

2. Kukus pulut putih selama 10 minit.
Percikkan santan ke atas pulut & gaulkan pulut hitam tadi sehingga rata.
Kukus selama 15 minit sehingga pulut sebati & lembut.

3. Blend kesemua bahan2 lapisan atas sehingga sebati.
Panaskan sebentar & tuangkan ke atas lapisan pulut tadi.
Mampatkan lapisan pulut dgn penekan sebelum menuang lapisan atas.
Kukus selama 30 minit dgn api sederhana kecil sehingga masak.

4. Biarkan kuih betul2 sejuk sebelum di potong.


Integrating Data Analysis into the Community College Curriculum

Join us for a Webinar on November 19
Space is limited.
Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/770576698
Join Kathy Rowell, Professor of Sociology at Sinclair Community College, for a discussion of "lessons learned" about integrating data analysis into the community college curriculum.  Kathy has been instrumental in the Integrating Data Analysis (IDA) initiative of the American Sociological Association and the Social Science Data Analysis Network since its inception in the early 1990s.  She will share her favorite resources and sample activities, tips from her own classroom, and briefly address the challenges faced by community college faculty when bringing data into the classroom.
Title:Integrating Data Analysis into the Community College Curriculum
Date:Monday, November 19, 2012
Time:1:00 PM - 2:00 PM EST
After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.
System Requirements
PC-based attendees
Required: Windows® 7, Vista, XP or 2003 Server
Mac®-based attendees
Required: Mac OS® X 10.5 or newer
Mobile attendees
Required: iPhone®, iPad®, Android™ phone or Android tablet

Non-profit Volunteers & Staff: An Essential Team

By Virgil R. Carter

Successful non-profit organizations are often those whose volunteers and professional staff work effectively together as an essential team for the organization’s success, year after year.  Yet, we often see examples of non-profit organizations in turmoil, with tenuous and/or tension-filled relationships between volunteers and staff.  What can we learn from these less-than-ideal relationships and how can non-profit organizations avoid adversarial relationships?

A good place to begin is to an understanding of volunteers and professional staff.  In professional societies and trade associations, volunteers usually care passionately about the organization and its mission.  Many volunteers are leading figures in their field and are subject-matter experts.  At the same time, many volunteers may have little leadership experience in the unique setting of nonprofit, volunteer-led organizations.  And volunteers, while knowledgeable in the setting of their personal interest, may have little knowledge or interest in the organization as a whole.

By comparison, many professional staff, particularly those at senior executive staff levels, spend years expanding their enterprise-wide knowledge of and leadership in nonprofit organizations. Many senior staff executives actively participate in the broader nonprofit world. Long-time staff also comprise the “corporate memory” of an organization, knowing what works and what doesn’t.  And staff are clearly accountable for organizational performance, whereas volunteers may place higher priority on collegiality than accountability for results.

Compounding this disparity of knowledge, experience and varied roles is the fact that job descriptions and responsibilities of volunteer leaders and professional staff often are highly ambiguous. Even where there are written policies, there may be many more unwritten policies actually determining who does what, when, and how.  Sound familiar?

How can successful volunteer-staff teams be organized and maintained in non-profits?  One approach is creating and maintaining a volunteer-staff partnership, with clear roles for both volunteers and staff, built on two categories of activity essential for many non-profit associations:

·         Mission-driven activities: These activities tend to represent the purpose of the organization. These activities motivate volunteers and are where most want to be active. These activities, which are rightly led and populated by volunteers, may produce few revenues and may be largely subsidized. This financial situation may even be coupled with volunteer assertions that association activities shouldn’t produce net revenues over expenses, to keep volunteer expenses to a minimum.  Mission-driven activities are critical. There is nothing wrong with subsidized activities, so long as revenues from other sources are available for the needed subsidies.

·         Business operations activities: These activities are where most of the positive revenue is created to subsidize mission-driven activities. Because they are profit-and-loss oriented, they must be staff led and managed, since volunteers simply have neither the access to timely information nor the available time to manage business affairs in the timely and agile manner required. A caution: business activities must be related to the mission, as much as subsidized activities.

Establishing clear roles and accountabilities for these two categories of association activity enables volunteer leaders and CEOs to play to their respective strengths. Such clarity, coupled with good communications, enables effective leadership, improved relationships, and strengthened organizational performance.

Leadership role clarity is an important step to transform tension between volunteer leaders and CEOs into essential teams--productive partnership. The results—more effective volunteers, stability in staff performance, and more successful, enjoyable teams—make the successful volunteer-staff partnership worth everyone’s effort.

Crude and steel - an unbreakable pair

The price of iron and steel is likely to fall in October-December 2012 following the drop in oil price.  We have been reporting on the trade-off between the (not seasonally adjusted) producer price index of crude oil (domestic production) and the PPI of iron and steel since 2009. It has been always a linear and lagged link between them.  Here we present data through September 2012.

We first reported that the PPI of crude oil had been likely evolving in sync with that of iron and steel, but with a lag of two months in September 2009.  In order to present both indices in a comparable form, the difference between a given index, iPPI (i.e. iron and steel or crude), and the overall PPI was normalized to the PPI: (iPPI(t)-PPI(t))/PPI(t). These normalized differences represent the evolution of the rate of deviation from the PPI over years.  

Figure 1 depicts the corresponding time histories of the normalized deviations from the PPI, including the most recent period through September 2012.  Even a simple visual inspection reveals the following feature: the (normalized deviation from the PPI of the) index of iron and steel lags by approximately two months behind the (normalized) index of crude oil.


Figure 1. The deviation of the iron and steel price index and the index of crude oil from the PPI, normalized to the PPI.

In order to reduce both deviations to the same scale we additionally normalized the curves in Figure 1 to their peak values between 2005 and 2012.

(iPPI(t)-PPI(t))/[PPI(t)*max{iPPI-PPI)}]

This scaling allows a direct shape comparison. In Figure 2, we display the normalized index of iron and steel shifted by two months ahead to synchronize its peak with that observed in the normalized index for crude petroleum. The scaled index of crude demonstrates short-term deviations from the index of iron and steel in the overall shape and timing of the peak and trough. Simple smoothing with a three-month moving average, MA(3), makes the curves resemblance even better. As an extra benefit of the resemblance, one can use the two-month lag to predict the future of the iron and steel price index.




Figure 2. Deviation of the iron and steel price index from the PPI, normalized to the PPI and the peak value after 2005 as compared to the deviations of the index for crude petroleum normalized in the same way. The normalized index for iron and steel is shifted two months ahead. One can expect the index of iron and steel to fall relative to the PPI in October-December 2012.  

Conclusion
The link between oil and iron has been unbreakable. Between 2006 and 2012, the deviation of the price index of iron and steel from the PPI in the USA repeats the trajectory of the deviation of the index of crude petroleum (domestic production) with a two-month lag. Therefore, the prediction of iron and steel price for at this horizon is a straightforward one. From Figure 2, one can expect the price of iron and steel to fall relative to the PPI in October-December 2012 in line with the observed fall in oil price.

Ayam Kriuk-Kriuk (Crispy Fried Chicken)

 Tasty chicken coated with crispy crumbs..... This fried chicken is actually served as "Ayam Penyek" menu but I was short of all other ingredients namely "Tempe", bean curd and assorted vegetables that supposedly the standard set; therefore I served it simply along white rice, Sambal and vegetable dish.
By: Roz@HomeKreation
Serve: 4-5 persons
INGREDIENTS:
4-5 big Chicken pieces
7 Kaffir Lime Leaves
3 tbsp KFC Flour
3 tbsp Rice Flour
2 Shallots*
2 cloves Garlic*
1" Ginger*
1 Lemongrass*
1 tbsp Black Pepper Corns* (* blend) 
1/2 tsp Turmeric Powder
Salt

METHOD:
1. Boil chicken with enough water, lime leaves & salt until cooked.
Drain the chicken pieces.
2. Mix the remaining ingredients and add enough water to form dipping batter.
3. Roll chicken pieces in rice flour & dip in the batter.
Deep fry until crispy and nice golden colour.
Dish out into a serving plate.
4. Fry the remaining batter and sprinkle onto the chicken.
5. Serve with rice and other side dishes.
*******************************************************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Ayam Kriuk-Kriuk..... kruuuup, kraaaaap, kriuuuuuk, kriuuuuuuk.... hahaha... memang ketawa lah Along sebab nak cuba bayangkan kepada anda betapa rangup nya ayam ni sampai berkriuk2 ni. Lebih sedap lagi kalau hidangkan ayam goreng ni sebagai menu Ayam Penyek, tapi Along hidangkan ringkas jer dgn Sambal dan kangkung goreng belachan. Biasalah... setiap malam darurat..... masak nak cepat siap jer, lagi pun bahan2 yg lain2 tu (tempe, tahu, ulam) utk Nasi Penyek memang takda pun sbb tak buat perancangan awal. Bagaimana pun tetap sedap di hidangkan ringkas.

By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation
Hidangan: 4-5 orang
BAHAN2:
4-5 ketulan besar Ayam
7 helai Daun Limau Purut
3 sb Tepung KFC
3 sb Tepung Beras
2 ulas Bwg Merah*
2 ulas Bwg Putih*
1" Halia*
1 btg Serai*
1 sb Biji Lada Hitam* (* blend) 
1/2 st Serbuk Kunyit
Garam

CARA2:
1. Rebus ayam dgn air secukupnya dan daun limau purut, garam sehingga ayam empuk.
Tapis ayam.
2. Campurkan kesemua bahan2 yg lain dgn air secukup nya menjadi bancuhan tepung goreng.
3. Golekkan ayam ke dlm tepung beras & kemudian celup ke dlm tepung goreng.
Goreng ayam dalam minyak yg banyak sehingga rangup & keperangan.
Angkat & letak di dalam pinggan.
4. Goreng lebihan tepung & tabur ke atas ayam goreng tadi.
5. Hidangkan sebagai Ayam Penyek bersama sayuran goreng, ulaman dan sambal belacan atau pun di hidangkan sebagai lauk sampingan lain. 

 Yg ini pula, Cik Kantan kat laman rumah Along.... takda kena mengena dgn resepi di atas tapi suka2 nak interprem kat sini. Cantik mekar.... alhamdulillah, banyak rezki keliling rumah ni dgn herba dan buah2an.


Gallup Poll: Better Off This Year, but Not by Much

In an extremely close poll conducted by Gallup, Americans were asked about their opinion regarding their personal financial situation this year as compared with last;  are things better, worse, or the same?

38% of Americans described their financial situations as better than last year, jumping for the first time since 2008 over Americans who considered themselves worse off.  Considering the 4% points separating the two opinions, the finding is not abrupt, but signals questionably positive public opinion regarding the economy.

However, this sentiment splits down partisan lines.  62% of Democrats consider themselves better off this year, while only 16% of Republicans describe themselves similarly.  Conversely, 9% of Democrats find themselves worse off this year, while 55% of Republicans responded likewise.  Independents hover somewhere in the middle, with 40% sharing a worse off response and 34% self-describing as better off.  With opinions regarding present situations minimally optimistic, future predictions are quite high;  66% of respondents predict that next year will be better than this one, pulling in 57% of Republicans, 62% of Independents, and 80% of Democrats.

Cat Eye Jelly (Agar-Agar Mata Kuching)

 I love creating jelly especially when am desperate to clear things from my pantry..... I bought few cans of Longan and it lasted almost two years (luckily not yet expired) because nobody in the house wanted to drink it unless I make something out of it. I knew I wanted to make jelly out of it for the recent Idh Adha but still had no idea initially. I came home quite late in the evening so at late night preparation, the idea just suddenly springed out when I got ingredients in hands.

This is a very nice jelly, tastes like "Cat Eye Juice" (literal translation of "Air Mata Kuching")....
By: Roz@HomeKreation
Size: 8" square or heart shape
INGREDIENTS:
13g Jelly / Agar-Agar Powder
700 liter Water
150g Palm Sugar
70g Sugar
1 can Longan
200ml Evaporated Milk

METHOD:
1. Boil jelly powder and water until dissolved.
Add in both types of sugar & stir until dissolved.
Add in juice from canned Longan (measuring about 300ml).
2. Divide the jelly mixture into two equal parts.
Add milk to one part & pour into mould.
Add 200ml water to the other portion.
3. Once the bottom part has slightly set, arrange Longan fruit on top.
Pour the clear portion slowly and let it set at room temperature.
4. Chill before serve.
***************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
 Satu lagi menu Hari Raya Haji baru2 ni..... Kepada yg tertunggu-tunggu resepi Agar-Agar Mata Kuching, boleh lah mencuba nya segera. Ini adalah satu lagi rekaan agar-agar dari Along. Nak habiskan stok buah longan yg dah lama terperap dalam stor makanan sebelum expired. Ilham nak buat ni tak sempat nak pikir2 & rancang2 pun sebab sibuk sangat tugasan kat pejabat & di rumah sehingga malam raya tetiba jer terus buat apabila terjumpa itu dan ini dalam gobok simpanan.

Rasa nya sama macam minuman Air Mata Kuching, jadi Along pun namakan nya sedemikian.


By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation
Size: 8" persegi atau tin bentuk hati
BAHAN2:
13g Serbuk Agar-Agar
700 liter Air
150g Gula Kabung Serbuk
70g Gula Putih
1 tin Longan
200ml Susu Cair Ideal

CARA2:
1. Masak serbuk agar2 dgn air sehingga larut.
Masukkan kedua2 jenis gula & masak sehingga larut.
Masukkan jus Longan (~300ml).
2. Bahagikan adunan kepada dua bahagian.
Masukkan susu ke dalam satu bahagian & tuang ke dlm acuan.
Masukkan 200ml air ke dalam adunan yg satu lagi.
3. Susun buah Longan apabila lapisan susu sudah mengeras sedikit.
Tuangkan bahagian tanpa susu perlahan2 ke ats susunan buah longan.
4. Sejukkan dalam petisejuk sebelum di hidangkan.


Krugman: denial of denial of denial of economics

Paul Krugman   will never surrender.  He insists that the economic theory  does give a good explanation of the current  economic trajectory. However, a half of economic profession does not support him (and the other half).  When I and many other scientists working in physics) deny the economic theory this is a "denial of economics". When Krugman denies our denial - this is a denial of denial. When the other half of  economists deny Krugman's opinion - this is a denial of denial of denial of economics. They do not deny economics as we do.

Fried Pandan Chicken (Again)

Still on the recent Idh Adha menu.... For recipe, refer here.
*****************************************************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Lagi tayangan menu Hari Raya Haji baru2 ni. Ayam ni buat anak-anak ratah-ratah di samping menu lain. Resepi dah ada kat sini dalam BI. Along terjemahkan ke BM di sini ya. Cubalah resepi rekaan Along sendiri ni.... tersangat sedap tau!

By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation
BAHAN2:
6 ketul Ayam
Garam

2" Halia*
2 ulas Bwg Putih*
(*tumbuk/blend)

1 st Serbuk Lada Hitam
2 sb Tepung Beras
2 sb Tepung KFC
4 sb Tepung KFC
- utk golekkan Ayam

Daun Pandan
Pencungkil Gigi


CARA2:
1. Gaul ayam dgn garam & bahan2 blend.
Balut dgn daun pandan & semat dgn pencungkil gigi.
Perap sejam/semalaman.

2. Bancuh tepung beras, tepung KFC, garam & air secukup nya.
Celup ayam dalam tepung bancuhan & golekkan ke atas tepung KFC.
Goreng sehingga ayam masak & tepung nya rangup.
Enjoy...!

Comparison of personal income distributions reported by the IRS and Census Bureau


We have discussed many times in this blog that personal incomes are not well defined and the lack of a comprehensive definition does not allow any accurate estimate of income inequality. Here we compare two data sets for 2001. The IRS reported 128,227,145 people with the cumulative income of $6.37E+12. The Census Bureau (CB) found 221,591,000 people with the total income of $6.45E+12, with the working age population of 243,946,000. All figures published by the CB are obtained as a projection of about 200,000 people covered by the Current Population Survey to the working age population as a whole using so called population controls and thus the higher incomes with just few representatives are subject to large biases. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has estimated the personal income in 2001 as $8.89E+12. Therefore the IRS and the CB both reported only 72% of the gross personal income (GPI) as based on 53% and 87% of working age population, respectively. This BEA provides no personal income distribution (PID) and thus its data are worthless for the analysis of income inequality. The IRS and CB data sets are also not comprehensive since give two different and mainly independent slices of the personal income distribution. One might try to recover the overall PID from these data sets.

The IRS and CB provide PIDs in different income bins.  This excludes any direct comparison of the relevant PIDs.  The CB covers incomes between $0 and $250K with bins of $10K before and $50K above $100K. The IRS distribution spans the interval between $0 and $10M with the bin width varying from $1K to $5M. All incomes above $250K and $10M, respectively, are covered by open-end bins for which the width cannot be determined. We have calculated two probability density functions (PDF) for the IRS and CB by dividing their PIDs by the widths of income bins and total population. (We did not normalize to the total incomes because they are practically identical.) Figure 1 presents both PDFs. These curves represent the portion of total population in $1 bins as a function of income. Between $15K and $40K, the PDFs practically coincide. Below $15K, the probability density reported by the CB is higher, and above $40K the IRS curve is above the CB one. Both curves reveal a power law distribution above approximate $70K. This allows an extension of the CB curve above its limit of $250K with a power law function with the index of -3.34 as shown in Figure 2. From Figure 1, one can conclude that the excess of 93,000,000 of people in the CB’s PID is inherently related to low incomes. The IRS compensates the total income deficit associated with the lack of low-incomers by a larger portion of people with higher incomes. In that sense, the CB better covers the sources of low incomes and the IRS includes more accurate sources of incomes above $50,000.

In order to construct a comprehensive definition one should combine all sources on income over the whole income axis. The simplest way is to use the CB’s PID below and the IRS’ PID above some threshold. We have chosen the level of $75K because there are bins starting with this value for both the IRS and CB. The number of people reported by the IRS and CB with incomes above $75K is different: 19,452,000 and 15,218,000, respectively. The former number is more accurate since the IRS includes almost all sources of high incomes and we consider the joint (merged IRS/CB) distribution at high incomes to be that reported by the IRS. The extra 4,234,000 people with incomes above $75K might be counted in by the CB as having lower incomes. However, one cannot easily redistribute the CB’s PID by extracting these four millions. Therefore, we just added 4,234,000 to 221,591,000 reported by the CB in order to calculate the basis for the corresponding PDF. This is a crude approximation but it should not introduce a large bias in the lower income bins since it is less than 2% is added. At lower incomes, we use the CB’s PID. Figure 3 shows the new merged PID (black line) which includes 225,000,000 and $7,819B.  The total income in the merged distribution is closer (895) to the GPI.
 
Figure 1. PDFs for IRS and CB

Figure 2.  The high income PDFs for the IRS and CB. The actual CB PDF shown by red circles and is extended by a power law with the index of -3.34 as shown by yellow circles.  The highest two values reported by the IRS lie above the power law distribution and are shown by blue squares with red contour. The expected values are shown by yellow squares.  
 
Figure 3. The merged personal income distribution.  At lower incomes, we retained $5K bins instead of $10K in Figure 1. At higher incomes, the merged PID is parallel to that reported by IRS but is much lower because the normalization basis has been increased from 128M to 225M people.

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