Smoking Ban Support Increases in US

In a recent article on the Web site, Gallup Wellbeing, by Andrew Dugan, based on the Gallup Daily Tracking Survey that interviews a random sample of 2,027 adults, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia by telephone that was conducted July 10-14, 2013, it was found that 22% of respondents say that they would support a complete smoking ban today, up from 12% in 2007. Additionally, this article reports that 55% of respondents support a smoking ban in all public places.

Though support is growing, the percentage of Americans wanting to ban smoking entirely remains relatively low. Nonwhites (39%) back a complete smoking ban and those with no more than a high school diploma (29%) are more likely than those with more education to say they want to make smoking illegal. In a previous survey, it was found that respondents with no college education were generally the most likely to smoke.  Not surprisingly, less than 10% of smokers support the ban and only 12% of Midwesterners compared to 25% of respondents in other regions of the country are supportive of the ban. Republicans support (19%) mostly aligns with the overall support of the ban while Democrats support (26%) is slightly higher. 

Read more:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/163736/support-complete-smoking-ban-increases.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/156833/one-five-adults-smoke-tied-time-low.aspx

Half of Iranians Lack Adequate Money for Food, Shelter

According to a recent Gallup Poll of based on telephone surveys of Iranian adults during 2011 through 2012, half of respondents say there have been times in the past year when they had trouble paying for adequate shelter and food for their families. The 50% figure is the highest among 19 populations in the Middle East and North Africa region that Gallup surveyed in 2012 and 2013.

Iranian’s election of moderate cleric Hassan Rouhani to the presidency has been widely interpreted as evidence of their desire for meaningful change in the country. Widespread economic hardship among the Iranian people carries mixed implications for the future of relations between Washington and Tehran under President Rouhani. Some Western leaders may take the effects of the international sanctions on the Iranian people as a sign that the sanctions are working and should be maintained. However, U.S. officials claim that the Iranian people are not the target of the sanctions. Almost half of Iranians (46%) say they hold the U.S. responsible for the international sanctions against their country, while 13% blame their own government.  What's more, Gallup finds that most Iranians (68%) still support the country's efforts to develop its nuclear capabilities. Additionally, the head of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently reported no signs that sanctions have slowed down Iran's nuclear program.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is -8 for June, similar to -7 in May

According to a recent Gallup Poll, Americans' confidence in the economy held steady in June, despite U.S. stock prices registering a monthly decline for the first time this year. The results for June are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cellphone, with more than 15,000 Americans.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is based on two components: Americans' assessments of current economic conditions in the United States and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or worse. Americans remain more negative than positive toward the U.S economy's current state and future momentum.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged -8 in June, on par with -7 in May -- the highest monthly score since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in January 2008.

While U.S. stock prices declined in June, the Dow and S&P still had their best performances in the first half of the year since the late 1990s. Higher stock prices this year and increased optimism about housing prices have likely contributed to Americans' growing confidence.

U.S. Investors' Worries

According to a recent Gallup poll, from which the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index is based, the top worries of investors in the US are a politically divided government and the budget deficit.  Fifty-four percent of investors say now is a good time to invest in the financial markets, up from 51% in March and 39% in November 2012. Still, in a separate question, 62% of investors anticipated a market correction that would take back significant market gains later this year. Despite that expectation, only 16% of those who expected a correction say they shifted into safer investments, while 80% made no changes to their portfolio's composition.

From  a list of 10 specific issues, investors are most likely to say the greatest challenge they are facing is "a politically divided federal government," with 73% saying it is hurting the current investment climate "a lot." This item has been near or at the top of investors' concerns since September 2011. The federal budget deficit is investors' second-greatest concern, with 67% saying it is hurting the investment climate a lot; this has been near the top of investors' worries over the past 2 1/2 years. 

Investors' concerns about a politically divided federal government are also consistent with Gallup's recent polling concerning the problems facing the country. 

The Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index, conducted quarterly, is a broad measure of investor perceptions that tends to be a precursor of economic activity. The current survey, conducted May 16-27, included a random sample of 1,426 investors.

The index peaked at 178 in January 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst, and hit a low of -64 in February 2009, just before the equity markets bottomed out in March 2009.

Gallup Poll: Better Off This Year, but Not by Much

In an extremely close poll conducted by Gallup, Americans were asked about their opinion regarding their personal financial situation this year as compared with last;  are things better, worse, or the same?

38% of Americans described their financial situations as better than last year, jumping for the first time since 2008 over Americans who considered themselves worse off.  Considering the 4% points separating the two opinions, the finding is not abrupt, but signals questionably positive public opinion regarding the economy.

However, this sentiment splits down partisan lines.  62% of Democrats consider themselves better off this year, while only 16% of Republicans describe themselves similarly.  Conversely, 9% of Democrats find themselves worse off this year, while 55% of Republicans responded likewise.  Independents hover somewhere in the middle, with 40% sharing a worse off response and 34% self-describing as better off.  With opinions regarding present situations minimally optimistic, future predictions are quite high;  66% of respondents predict that next year will be better than this one, pulling in 57% of Republicans, 62% of Independents, and 80% of Democrats.

Presidential Race Polling Very Close

With the election looming just two weeks away, and the final debate between President Barack Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney in the books, the focus turns to polls.  The race has tightened in recent weeks, especially in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The President carried all these states in his win over Senator John McCain in the 2008 election, though polls indicate the 2012 election will be much closer, particularly in the previously mentioned battleground states.  While the President maintained an early advantage in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, recent polls in these states place the two candidates in a near deadlocked battle.  Mitt Romney has retained a slight lead in Florida, arguably the most important battleground state, over the past month.

The Economist has compiled an election season map, with polling details for each state.  Based on the most recent polling results President Obama possesses 253 likely Electoral College votes (17 shy of the 270 necessary for victory) to Mitt Romney's 191. However, there are still 94 votes from battleground states that are up in the air.  Should Mitt Romney hold onto his lead in Florida, he would receive 29 votes - the third most for any state.  This would leave him 50 votes shy of victory with 65 votes still on the table.  While Florida represents the most votes for any battleground state, Ohio may yet be the most important.  If the President takes Ohio along with the other 253 likely Obama votes, he surpasses the 270 vote mark with a single vote to spare.  A recent Quinnipiac Poll gives the President a five-point lead in Ohio, and he's led the state in most polls throughout the past two months.  

Most Americans Favor Quick Removal of U.S.Troops from Afghanistan

A recent public opinion poll suggests that Americans are increasingly pessimistic about developments in the Middle East.  This report released by Pew Research Center found that the majority of Americans (60%) believe that U.S. troops should leave Afghanistan as quickly as possible.  This number has significantly increased since May 2011, when only 48% of Americans supported quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  According to the survey issued October 4-7, 2012, 73% of Democrats support quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  The majority of Independents (58%) similarly support a quick troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.  However, Republicans remain divided, as 48% believe that U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan until the country is stabilized. Overall, only 35% of Americans believe that U.S. troops should stay in Afghanistan until the country has stabilized.  The presidential candidates will likely respond to American’s growing pessimism about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan as they debate foreign policy tonight in the final presidential debate. 

Two-Thirds of Americans Hold Favorable View of President Clinton

President Bill Clinton’s approval rating has reached its highest point yet.  According to Gallup, 66% of Americans hold a favorable view of the ex-President, twenty points higher than President Obama’s approval rating.  And while President Clinton enjoys widespread favorability among his Democratic base - with 90% of Democrats holding a favorable opinion of Clinton - the historically moderate Democrat also won over many Republicans: 44% view President Clinton favorably.

For Pollsters, Finding Respondents Gets Harder Every Year

Pew Research Center reports that societal and technological changes have made it increasingly difficult to contact and persuade respondents for the purpose of surveys.  For a typical telephone survey, the contact rate (percent of households in which an adult was reached) was 90% in 1997, but today, it is just 62%.  The cooperation rate (percent of households contacted that yielded an interview) was 43% in 1997 but is only 14% in 2012.  Despite the declining rates, Pew maintains that polls continue to supply precise data.