Overestimating the Black Population in the US

A recent article in The Atlantic reported that the 2000 General Social Survey asked 1,000 White adults to estimate what percentage of the US population is Black. 95% of White women and 85% of White men overestimated that percentage, which at the time, was 12%.  The overestimation was stronger for women than men: 69% of women and 49% of men guessed that Blacks comprised more than 20% of the population. 

U.S. Investors' Worries

According to a recent Gallup poll, from which the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index is based, the top worries of investors in the US are a politically divided government and the budget deficit.  Fifty-four percent of investors say now is a good time to invest in the financial markets, up from 51% in March and 39% in November 2012. Still, in a separate question, 62% of investors anticipated a market correction that would take back significant market gains later this year. Despite that expectation, only 16% of those who expected a correction say they shifted into safer investments, while 80% made no changes to their portfolio's composition.

From  a list of 10 specific issues, investors are most likely to say the greatest challenge they are facing is "a politically divided federal government," with 73% saying it is hurting the current investment climate "a lot." This item has been near or at the top of investors' concerns since September 2011. The federal budget deficit is investors' second-greatest concern, with 67% saying it is hurting the investment climate a lot; this has been near the top of investors' worries over the past 2 1/2 years. 

Investors' concerns about a politically divided federal government are also consistent with Gallup's recent polling concerning the problems facing the country. 

The Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index, conducted quarterly, is a broad measure of investor perceptions that tends to be a precursor of economic activity. The current survey, conducted May 16-27, included a random sample of 1,426 investors.

The index peaked at 178 in January 2000, just before the dot-com bubble burst, and hit a low of -64 in February 2009, just before the equity markets bottomed out in March 2009.

Chinese Leaving in Droves for Other Developed Nations

On October 31, the New York Times highlighted China's difficulties in keeping residents from emigrating to other developed nations. While China's economy has experienced robust economic growth in recent years, more and more Chinese continue to leave the nation in search of a new life.  The lack of religious freedom and the lure of a more liberated social and economic environment has driven an increasingly high number of Chinese out of the country. In 2010, 508,000 Chinese departed for one of the 34 developed countries that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The U.S. welcomed 87,000 permanent residents in 2011, up from 70,000 in 2010.  But this feeling of uncertainty and unrest is not a one-way street.  The lethargic recoveries hampering the economies in the West has driven Chinese students back home in droves. In 2011, the number of students returning to China was up 40% from the previous year. Even still, it appears China is experiencing a sort of "brain drain." The United States' investment-based green card program allows foreigners to obtain a green card if they invest over $500,000 into American businesses. Chinese citizens obtained well over 2,000 of these specialized permits, more than double the investment-based green cards of all other nationalities combined.  

Violent Child Abuse On the Decline

A special report from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics finds that during 2010 roughly 2.8 million “children age 17 or younger… lived in a household in which at least one member age 12 or older experienced one or more nonfatal violent victimizations during the year.”  The data does not specify whether the child was present during the abuse or whether he was the victim of the attack, but it does provide insight into how diminished, yet still widespread, the issue violent crime against children is.  In 2010, 3.9% of children fell into the category of having lived in a household where violent child abuse took place, but this percentage has fallen over 68% since 1993, when approximately 8.7 million children, or 12.6%, lived in a household that experienced violent victimization.  Violent crimes occurred in low-income households (less than $15,000 a year) and in urban areas.  Additionally, households headed by one parent or a nonmarried adult were more prone to experiencing violent child victimization.

Household Income Left Behind In Recovery

Rakesh Kochar, writing for the Pew Research Center, examined household income during the recent recession and recovery.  From 2007 to 2009, the median household income fell 4.2%, and while the economy began to turn around and businesses started to rebuild, incomes continued to drop.  From 2009 to 2011, as the U.S. embarked on a sluggish recovery, the median income failed to improve.  In fact, the median household income fell almost as much (4.1%) during the recovery years as during the recession.  After a 5.7% decrease in household income due to the 1973 recession, incomes salvaged a 2.3% increase in the following 2 year recovery period.  The 1980 to 1982 recession drove incomes down 5.0%, but in the subsequent two-year recovery, incomes rebounded with a 2.4% improvement.  This prolonged period of income losses reflects a greater trend from the past decade.  The highest median household income was $54,932 in 1999, and since then, that level has only been approached in 2007, when incomes were $54,489.  

Manufacturing Sector Profits Down From 2011

The Department of Commerce released its quarterly report on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector today.  Manufacturing corporations' profits totaled $149.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012, up $0.7 billion from the previous quarter, but down from the $153.4 billion logged in the second quarter of 2011.  Though profits have idled, they’ve still rallied significantly since posting losses of more than $70 billion in late 2008.  In fact, current profits are the highest experienced in the 21^stcentury other than the marginally higher 2^nd quarter in 2011. 

Looking Back at the Frontier

As NASA's Curiosity rover roams Mars' surface, pushing man's frontier into space, the Census Bureau looks back at the American Frontier with its graphic representation of the population growth from the late 18^th to late 19^th century.  In 1790, the population extended up and down the eastern seaboard - from southern Maine deep into South Carolina - but the frontier remained close to the Atlantic Ocean.  

By the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, the frontier extended into the western portion of the U.S., and population centers on the East Coast expanded rapidly.  In the middle of the 19^thcentury, Americans pushed the limits of civilization well into the Midwest and established burgeoning cities throughout the region.  The frontier remained at borders drawn in the Louisiana Purchase, but the populace was well on its way to filling in the gaps from the East Coast to the Midwest.  When the gold rush caught the attention of millions of Americans, the frontier finally reached the West Coast, and people across the nation tried their luck in the gold-rich rivers of California. Moving onto the late 19^thcentury, the population’s reach extended throughout the entire continental U.S., and though gaps remained in the Midwest, the Superintendent of the Census declared the frontier to be nonexistent.

Housing Prices Still Low, But Sales Fail to Pick Up

While housing prices have stabilized, the quantity of one-family homes sold throughout the U.S. continues to fall to levels unseen in decades.  Though prices continue to rebound, the median cost of a single-family home is still at its lowest in 8 years ($227,000).  The drop in price, however, has not motivated Americans to buy homes.  The Department of Housing and Urban Development’s estimates the sales of new single-family houses at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 372,000.  Though up 25% from July of last year, housing sales haven’t been this low since before the Census began tracking the figure in the 1963.  Sales fell 76% from 2006 to 2011, and have yet to show significant periods of recovery.  With a record low number of houses starting construction this year, and an unemployment rate still above 8%, the recession’s lingering consequences still hinder a sales rebound.  With that said, prices have fallen three straight months; will relatively low prices incite a rebound in the housing market? 

Unemployment Falls in 305 of 372 Metropolitan Areas

Unemployment in America is slowly improving.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly report on metropolitan area employment and unemployment shows that from July of 2011 to last month, unemployment rates decreased in 305 of 372 metropolitan areas.  The number of areas posting over 10.0 percent unemployment nearly halved from 112 to 67.  Overall, the unemployment rate was 8.3% in July, illustrating a comeback – albeit a sluggish comeback – from when unemployment topped off at nearly 10.0% nationally.  Still though, just 18 of the 372 metropolitan areas registered unemployment rates of less than 5.0%.  To put that figure in perspective, before the recession, the national unemployment rate dipped below 5.0% for over a year.

Health Spending Represents 17.9% of GDP

The California Health Care Foundation recently released its 2012 report on health care costs.  The report illustrates how America pays for its health care, as well as how these costs have evolved over the past half-century.  In 1960, health spending represented just 5.2% of GDP.  By 2010, that proportion ballooned to 17.9%.  Per capita spending has experienced an even more dramatic increase.  In 2000, health spending per capita was $4,878, but after just a decade, that figure rose to $8,402.  Compared to other countries, the U.S. spends far more on health care both per capita and as a percentage of its GDP.  Switzerland’s $5,270 spent on health care per capita makes the nation a distant second to the U.S. in health spending.

Over the past 50 years, the question of who foots the health care bill has constantly changed.  In 1960, the bulk of health care funds came from out-of-pocket spending. Today, however, government programs like Medicare and Medicaid along with private insurance cover the majority of costs, and hospital care, physician and clinical services, and prescription drugs all necessitate far less out-of-pocket spending.  For instance, in 1960, nearly all of the money for prescription drug costs (96%) came from the consumers’ pockets.  In 2010, out-of-pocket spending accounted for just 19% of the expenditures. 

55% of American Cell Phone Owners Have a Smartphone

From Nielen's Report on Mobile Consumers

Nielsen reportsthat smartphones are most popular among the younger and higher income demographics in America.  81% of those aged 18-24 and earning over $100,000 possess a smartphone representing the highest usage of any age and income category.  Overall, smartphones are a popular product: 60% of those aged 25-34 and making less than $50,000 still own a smartphone; and 72% of Americans aged 25-34 earning between $50,000 and $100,000 possessed one.  In early 2012, smartphones achieved the majority share of users in the mobile phone market, and today, 55% of cell phone owners have a smartphone.  Additionally, women are more likely to use apps frequently.  While men retain the greater share of app users, 58% of women actually rank in the top third of app users.  Finally, consumers continue to embrace the iOS and Android operating systems.  In May of last year, the number of Android and iOS users topped off at 49 million, but this figure pales in comparison to the number of users by May of 2012: 90 million.  

U.S. Drought Worst Since Dust Bowl

The drought currently overwhelming much of the U.S. ranks among the worst in American history and is the worst since the Dust Bowl.  Since 1999, the National Drought Mitigation Center has tracked the spread and intensity of droughts, and according to the center, 11 states possess regions with an "exceptional drought," characterized as resulting in "widespread crop losses," and water emergencies.  The "exceptional drought" category is the center's most extreme classification.  CNN provides an animated map to display the growth of the drought, which is now entering its eight month.  The expansive region experiencing the seriously low water levels covers land throughout the South, Midwest and West. Additionally, the NOAA's most recent projections paint a picture of a clear and swift recovery in the near future.

Most Efficient Country at the Olympics?

With the Games of the XXX Olympiad underway, this week’s edition of The Economist’s daily chart features an analysis of the Olympics’ most successful countries.  The magazine established its rankings based on the number of competitors per medal won.  The most successful country – though it is now nonexistent – was East Germany.  The communist nation undertook effective but controversial training methods; however, the country’s practices yielded a highly competitive team, and its 3.3 medals per competitor topped the rankings.  The Soviet Union placed second, with 3.4 medals per competitor.  The U.S., though easily boasting the highest medal count of 2,292 total medals, ranked third with 4.1 medals per competitor.  

56.7 Million Americans Have a Disability

Last Friday, Matthew Brault from the Health and Disability Statistics Branch of the Census Bureau appeared on C-SPAN to discuss Americans with disabilities in the U.S.  There were 56.7 million people with a disability in 2010, up 2.3 million from 2005.  38.3 million possessed a severe disability – a disability that totally prevents the survey respondent from doing many different activities listed in the Survey of Income and Program Participation.  Of Americans aged 21 to 64 with a disability, just 4-in-10 were employed, and 11% of Americans aged 15 to 64 with a severe disability experienced persistent poverty.

4th Graders Read for Fun Much More Than 8th Graders

According to the U.S. Department of Education, almost half (46%) of American 4^thgraders read for fun almost every day, and nearly three quarters read at least one to two times a week. Just 15 percent read never, or hardly ever.  8th graders on the other hand, read markedly less. Almost one in three (29%) report never or hardly ever reading, and just 21 percent read for fun almost every day. Female 8^thgraders read far more than male 8^th graders, with nearly a quarter reading every day compared to 40 percent of males. 4^th grade girls are also more likely to read frequently than boys. 

U.S. Manufacturing Industry Posts Nearly $150 Billion 1st Quarter Profits

The U.S. Department of Commerce reports that American manufacturing corporations posted $148.0 billion in profits during the first quarter of 2012.  These profits, though only marginally higher than the net income of $145.4 billion in 2011, are still at a level unseen even before the recession.  In the fourth quarter of 2008, manufacturing corporations truly felt the brunt of the recession, and actually recorded a loss of almost $75 billion, but since then, profits have rebounded swiftly to their current levels of nearly $150 billion.  Sales on the whole also increased.  In the first quarter of 2012, sales reached almost $1.7 trillion, up from about $1.57 trillion in the first quarter of 2011.

12 Million Americans Take Out Payday Loans

A new Pew Charitable Trusts report demonstrates the surprisingly high number of Americans who utilize payday loans.  These payday loans are generally short-term, high-interest cash advances that average $375.  The typical borrower takes out eight of these loans each year and spends $520 on interest.  The report states that 12 million Americans use payday loans annually.  69 percent use these loans for everyday expenses, such as credit card bills, mortgage payments, groceries and the like, whereas only 16 percent take out a payday loan to cover unexpected expenses such as unanticipated medical costs or car repairs.  The most common borrower is white, female and between 25 and 44 years old, but the study also found five other groups of Americans that are more likely to take out these loans: those without a college degree; Africans Americans; home renters; those who earn less than $40,000 a year; and those who are divorced or separated. 

Obesity in America

Gallup’s assessment of obesity in America illustrates some interesting trends.  Blacks are more likely to be obese than any other race.  20.8% of Blacks received the distinction of falling into the obese class I.  8.8% were in obese class II and 6.0% in obese class III. The latter two categories are recognized as very obese.  Asians were the least likely to be obese with only 7.6% falling into obese class I, 2.1% in obese class II, and 1.0% in obese class III.  Overall, men are more likely than women to be obese, but a slightly higher percentage of women are categorized in obese class III (4.0% versus 2.9%).  Additionally, unemployed Americans are more likely to be obese than those who possess a job.  

Finally, both income and education are related to obesity levels.  As Americans obtain higher levels of education (the study tracks those with high school or less up to postgraduate degrees), they are less likely to be obese.  5.2% of those who earn less than $36,000 a year have BMIs high enough to be categorized in obese class III, compared to just 1.8% of Americans who earn greater than $90,000 a year.  

To be considered obese, one must have a body mass index (BMI) of over 30.  For a person who is 5 feet 9 inches, his/her weight would need to rise above 203 pounds to be classified as obese.  To fall under obese class III, that same person would need to weigh over 271 pounds.

America's Trade Deficit Decreases

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on U.S. International Trade in Goods and Serviceson July 11^th.  As of May, America is running a $48.7 billion trade deficit.  The trade deficit was revised downward from its previous estimate of $50.1 billion in April.  Exports of goods and services rose $0.4 billion during May – due mostly to an increase in the exports of services – and imports decreased by $1.6 billion.  While the imports of goods decreased, imports of services actually increased.  America’s goods deficit with China contributes greatly to the overall trade deficit, and in the month of May, the goods deficit with the nation of over 1.3 billion increased $1.4 billion to $26.0 billion total.

America at a Glance

The New York Times has extracted data from the Census Bureau's 2005-2009 American Community Survey in order to compose a map displaying the racial, socioeconomic, and educational composition of the U.S.  In terms of income distribution, there is a high density of Americans earning over $200,000 in the Northeast.  For instance, more than 15% of the population in Hunterdon, New Jersey, Fairfield, Connecticut, and Westchester, New York earn over $200,000.  Another map illustrating the percentage of foreign born residents shows a high concentration throughout much of California, southern Arizona, south and southwest Texas, and southern Florida.  Additionally,  New York City and the region surrounding it possesses a high percentage of foreign born residents.