Fried Kembung in Chilli Oil

 This is my last entry before getting into Ramadhan. Just to share an instant & quick cooking with Chilli Oil that I made earlier here and here. Apart from accompanying noodles & rice, you can also use chili oil for instant cooking like what I did here. Just fry some big onion until soft, add in chilli oil & stir in fried fish ( I used Mackerel or Kembung)..... ready in just 5 minutes! Very much suitable for Sahur when you need to cook something quickly..... serve with hot rice and that's all you need!

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Kalau ada cili oil memang mudah sebab selain makan cili oil dgn mi goreng/sup & sebagai nya, boleh juga buat masakan lauk segera. Cuma kalau nak beli cili oil yg dah siap di jual harga nya memang mahal. Kalau rajin, boleh lah buat sendiri, resepi dah ada kat sini dan sini dulu. Untuk buat masakan ikan macam ni, cuma goreng bawang besar & letak cili oil dgn api padam (supaya tak hangus sbb cili oil dah cukup garing) & ikan yg dah siap di goreng.... siap.

Salam Ramadhan 2011

Assalamualaikum kpd semua kekawan dan pembaca2 sekalian. Salam Ramadhan Al-Mubarak, semuga di tahun ini kita semua selamat mengerjakan ibadat puasa dan mendapat segala keberkatan yang di harapkan.

Maaf lah ya, Along tak dapat nak melawat rumah ke rumah untuk ucapan & oleh itu, di sini kad bagi pengganti diri khas buat kekawan semua.... amik bawa balik ya.

Ini nak gantung kad dari kekawan yang sempat Along kutip. Maceh semua.

dari Noorsha
dari Nor (Secubit Garam)
dari Nur (Ceturan Rasa)


Severe Drought Causes Famine In Eastern Africa

A recent article in The Economist discusses the widespread famine currently plaguing Eastern Africa as a result of severe drought in the region. The famine is concentrated in Somalia and Ethiopia, as shown in the map of the region included in the article (right), which shows the percent below normal precipitation levels of the region. The area being hit hardest, with precipitation less than 50% of its normal levels, is southern Somalia. According to surveys conducted by Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS Net) across southern Somalia this month, malnutrition exceeds 38% in most areas. The article discusses the UN's response to the famine at the beginning of this month, suggesting it was slightly delayed considering the famine was predicted as early as November, and refers to the response of donors as "patchy." Some of the donors' hesitancy can be attributed to the Shabab, an Islamist militia in Somalia that controls much of the southern region and has banned Western aid, which it has labeled anti-Muslim. Donors may be concerned about violence against Western aid workers that has occurred in the past in the region and that food aid could be used to support the militia.





BL

Hispanics Hit Hardest By Recession

According to a study published last week by Pew Research Center, Hispanic families experienced the greatest decline in net worth of all ethnic and racial groups in the US during the recession. The study used US Census data and found that the median wealth of Hispanic households decreased 66% from 2005 to 2009. This and the percent change in median household net worth of other racial and ethnic groups can be seen in the chart (right) that was included in a recent New York Times article discussing the results of the study. As the chart indicates, the Asian population experienced the second largest decrease in net worth at a 54% decrease between 2005 and 2009, while the Black population also experienced a large decrease in net worth at 53%. Whites fared comparatively well to all other races and ethnicities, only experiencing a decrease of 16%. Consequently, the US is currently experiencing the greatest wealth disparities in the 25 years the Census Bureau has been recording data of this nature, with the median wealth of white households now 20 times that of Black households and 18 times that of Hispanic households. The author of the article, Sabrina Tavernise, speculates that Hispanics were particularly vulnerable economically during the recession because nearly two-thirds of their net worth in 2005 was from home equity, which declined sharply with the collapse of the housing market. Whites, on the other hand, had a greater portion of their wealth in other assets, such as stocks. Ms. Tavernise also points out that Hispanics may have been more vulnerable due to the large Hispanic populations in places like Florida and California, which were hit particularly hard by the recession.
 

Fish & Cheesy Wedges

 Found a bag of huge fillet (from a giant fish that I bought long time ago) in the freezer while searching for an idea for dinner. I just wanted to clear the whole lot of it and what better way than making fish & chips. Since I have a can of cheddar cheese dip, I thought replacing potato chips with cheesy wedges will please the kids better & I was right.... They were all thrilled whenever I cooked western menu but me & my hubby always prefer rice & dishes... anyway tonite we gave in to the kids.
Cheesy Wedges and Creamy Coleslaw
Parmesan Fish
By: Roz@HomeKreation
Adapted from: Parmesan Prawn by Nur
Serve: 5 persons
INGREDIENTS:
5 Fish Fillet
1 Calamansi Juice
2 Eggs
2 tbsp Plain Flour
1 tbsp Corn Flour
Bread Crumbs*
4-5 tbsp Parmesan Cheese Powder* (*mix) 
Salt & Pepper

METHOD:
1. Rub fish fillet with salt & calamansi juice.
Keep aside while preparing the batter and potato wedges.
2. Beat eggs slightly & mix well with plain flour, cornflour, salt & pepper.
3. Dip fish fillet in batter & roll on breadcrumb mixture.
4. Shallow fry in a flat pan until golden one side & flip.
Lift out on kitchen paper once both sides are crispy & golden.
5. Serve along cheesy potato wedges & coleslaw.


Cheesy Potato Wedges
By: Roz@HomeKreation
- Peel potatoes & cut into wedges.
- Boil until slightly soft.
- Dip boiled potatoes in batter & deep fry until golden & crispy on the outer.
(I made just a simple batter using plain flour, turmeric powder, salt, pepper & water adequately).
- Drizzle with cheddar cheese dip.

Creamy Coleslaw
By: Roz@HomeKreation 
- Mix shredded cabbage with raisins, mayonnaise, lemon/lime juice & pepper.

*******************************************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Sekali-sekala meh kita makan fish & potato, tukor selera omputih lak....hehe.

Parmesan Fish
Adapted from: Parmesan Prawn by Nur
Hidangan utk 5 org
BAHAN2:
5 keping Isi Ikan
1 biji Limau Kasturi - ambil jus
2 bj Telur
2 sb Tepung Gandum
1 sb Tepung Jagung
Serbuk Roti*
4-5 sb Serbuk Parmesan Cheese* (*campur) 
Garam & Serbuk Lada Hitam

CARA2:
1. Lumur ikan dgn garam & jus limau.
Ketepikan sementara menyediakan tepung goreng & kentang wedges.
2. Pukul telur sedikit & gaul sebati dgn tepung, garam & lada.
3. Celup ikan ke dlm bancuhan tepung & golekkan ke atas serbuk roti.
4. Goreng di dalm kuali leper sehingga garing & balikkan sehingga kedua2 belah garing & masak sepenuhnya.
5. Hidangkan dgn kentang wedges bekeju & salad kobis.


Kentang Wedges Berkeju
By: Roz@HomeKreation 
- Kopek kentang & potong wedges.
- Rebus sehingga empuk sedikit.
- Celup ke dlm tepung goreng & goreng sehingga rangup.
(Along buat tepung goreng yg simple jer: tepung gdm, serbuk kunyit, garam, lada & air secukup nya).
- Sudukan cheddar cheese dip ke atas kentang wedges semasa menghidang.


Creamy Coleslaw
By: Roz@HomeKreation 
- Gaulkan kobis yg di racik halus dgn kismis, mayonnaise, jus limau & serbuk lada.

Healthy Fervor

By Kevin McCray, Executive Director
National Ground Water Association
Westerville, OH

I recently posted to one of our association’s discussion boards a question asking what members thought are the top questions to be answered in our field. One answer certainly caught me off guard.

“This is part of the problem,” the respondent wrote, “when reputable groups attempt to accomplish a valuable service and end up creating a fervor.”

He went on to share comments about our field and continued with the need for responsibility in what we speak and what we write.

I don’t disagree with any of that. I certainly like it when we’re called a reputable group. But, I’m uncertain how my question leads to “fervor.” How do we hold civil discourse unless we openly talk or write about our thoughts and their implications?

Public Affairs Council President Doug Pinkham in his own blog of July 25, shares that America’s political gridlock might be a result changes in American community design and social interaction. He cites a National Affairs article by Marc Dunkelman who claims Americans are missing those talks with regular acquaintances, local business owners, fellow PTA members, or neighbors. Today, we’re all “honeycombed,” Dunkelman writes (Faith Popcorn called it “cocooning.” Robert Putnam named it “Bowling Alone.”)

Our missing relationships, according to Dunkelman, are needed to “ground the broad understanding that an integrated society will be more dynamic than one in which opposing interests perpetually snipe at one another…”

We have many ways in which we should create a little healthy fervor. One significant value of social media is for that one more opportunity to hold yet another conversation with yet another member – hopefully many members.

While we have to guard against applying too much grease to the latest squeaky wheel, these conversations are useful as we build our rapport and empathy with those we serve.

Stir the pot. Ask the hard questions. It’ll result in a better served customer, and a better served customer serves our associations well.

Business Leaders Still Predominantly Male

A recent article in The Economist discusses legislation that is being passed, mainly in Europe, that promotes greater female representation in board rooms and executive committees. European countries that have passed such legislation include Norway, which passed a law in 2003 that required all publicly listed firms to reserve 40% of seats on their boards for women by 2008, and France and Spain, which have both passed similar legislation. Earlier this month, the European Parliament passed an EU-wide resolution that called upon member states to require that at least 40% of seats on listed companies' supervisory boards be reserved for women by 2020. This legislation is in response to a lack of female chief-executives in large companies that persists even in the world's wealthiest countries. In the US, for example, only 15 chief executives of Fortune 500 countries are women while in France, none of their CAC 40 share index firms have chief executives that are women. The chart to the right conveys this by showing the percentage of board members and percentage of the executive committee that were women in 2010. Norway had the highest percentage of female board members at a little over 30% while it fell somewhere between 5 and 15% for most other countries.

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Kuih Ketupor

 Remember my plea for Kuih Ketupor recipe that I posted earlier in here? I received one response from Nur68 who generously shared her mum's recipe with me via email. I am so grateful to her and mum for allowing me to share the recipe here with all of you. They are hoping this will also help to promote the local Sarawakian kuih to the other part of the world and also future generation. Nowadays, it is hard to find the traditional kuih being sold to the extent that most young generation have not even heard of it.

This Kuih Ketupor is made of rice and coconut at the bottom layer whilst the top layer is similar to serimuka topping. It is very delicious and I love it so much. Many thanks to Nur68 & mum for such a nice recipe.
By: Roz@HomeKreation
Source: Nur68 (via email)
Measurements have been modified to suit my tin size. See original measurements in BM to fit 10" sq tin.
Translated into English by HomeKreation

BOTTOM LAYER:
1 cup* Rice - soaked 
3 cup* Thin Coconut Milk
120g Grated Coconut
(* I used 200ml cup) 

TOP LAYER:
200ml Coconut Milk
2 Eggs
1/4 tsp Salt
100g Sugar
40g Flour
Purple Color 

METHOD:
1. Blend rice & coconut milk & pour into wok.
Add in coconut & cook until thicken.
Spread into a tin & steam 30min until cooked.

2. Mix all bottom layer ingredients well & pour onto bottom layer.
Steam 30 min until cooked.
Cool completely before slicing.
************************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Kuih Ketupor ialah kuih tradisional Sarawak yang hampir pupus. Ramai anak2 zaman ni yang tak pernah dengar pun nama ni. Resepi adalah sumbangan dari Nur68 & emaknya melalu email. Maceh tak terhingga terutama kerana mengizinkan Along kongsi resepi ni dengan semua, semuga mendapat keberkatan dari Allah atas ilmu yang di kongsi bersama ini. Harapan mereka kuih ni dapat di sebarkan seluas2nya dan tidak terpupus begitu sahaja pada masa jenerasi hadapan.

Kuih ni di perbuat drpd beras & kelapa pada lapisan bawah. Memang unik dan tak pernah jumpa kuih ni di Semenanjung, mungkin siapa2 kat sana tau? Rasa nya sedap ala2 putu dan kombinasi lapisan atas yg manis memang sesuai sangat dgn selera Along & keluarga.

Source: Nur68 (via email)
Sukatan di ubah suai untuk saiz tin pengukus Along. Saiz asal 10" persegi.
Saiz: 8" Bulat
LAPISAN BAWAH:
1 kong* Beras - rendam sehingga kembang
3 kong* Santan Cair
250g Kelapa Parut
(Along guna 120g)
(Nota* kong=tin susu yg buat sukat beras tetapi Along guna cawan penyukat beras yg kecil bersaiz 200ml)

LAPISAN ATAS:
2 gelas omo* Santan Pekat
(Along guna 200ml)
3 biji Telur
(Along guna 2 biji)
Garam secukup rasa
Gula secukup rasa
(Along guna 100g)
¾-1 gelas omo* Tepung Gandum
(Along guna 40g)
Pewarna
 
(Nota* gelas omo tu bahasa Sarawak, kalau tak faham, ikut jer sukatan metric yg Along kasi tu)

CARA2:
1. Blend beras & santan & tuang ke dlm kuali.
Masukkan kelapa & masak sehingga pekat.
Ratakan ke dlm tin & kukus 30 min sehingga masak.

2. Campur kesemua bahan2 lapisan bawah sehingga sebati.
Tuangkan ke atas lapisan beras tadi & kukus 30 min sehingga masak.
Sejukkan sebelum di potong.

Holders of the U.S. Federal Debt

A recent Daily Chart blog on The Economist's website includes an interactive graphic created by Congressional Quarterly that breaks down the U.S. federal debt by its various bondholders. As of the end of March, the total federal debt was 14.27 trillion dollars to holders of US Treasury securities. The two graphics below indicate these holders of US Treasury securities and the amount that they hold in billions of dollars. As the chart indicates, the three nations that hold the largest amount of US debt are China (with 1.15 trillion dollars), Japan (with 906.9 billion dollars) and the United Kingdom (with 333 billion dollars). It is important to note that this doesn't necessarily mean that the governments or central banks of these countries own the securities, but are simply the location of the securities. Additionally, about 4.61 trillion dollars of the federal debt is held by US government accounts, over half of which (2.61 trillion dollars) is held by Social Security trust funds. Who actually holds the federal debt has become relevant recently, as a government default has become a feasible possibility with the approach of the debt ceiling deadline (August 2nd). As a related Congressional Quarterly article discusses, an increase in the debt ceiling is necessary to prevent a default so that the government can continue to borrow in order to meet its financial obligations.
BRL cf

Cow Brain in Turmeric Broth (Otak Masak Lemak Kunyit)

 I'm sure many of you never tasted cow brain. It is my favourite since I was a kid. Every year when my father slaughtered cow for Hari Raya sale, he surely reserved the brain for me. There was one year I couldn't come home for Hari Raya during my student time, my father sobbed quietly thinking of me when my mum served the brain. So whenever I cooked this dish, I will surely think of my belated father.

My friend gave me the cow brain from the cow he slaughtered for his daughter's wedding. Apparently, the Sarawakian throw away the brain because they don't like it. I told them that it is very delicious. This is the way my mum cook the cow brain every year in thick turmeric broth. Warn you that 100g cow brain contain 2054mg cholesterol (compared to 100g beef which contains only 65g cholesterol) i.e 30 times more of its meat..... Anyway, I don't care..... the last time I ate cow brain was about 5 years ago.... so I'm fulfilling my crave here....LOL!
By: Roz@HomeKreation
INGREDIENTS:
Cow Brain from 1 cow
6 Shallots*
Some Chili Padi*
2 Green Chili*(*pounded)
1 tsp Turmeric Powder
2 Turmeric Leaves - sliced finely
4 Lemongrass - sliced thinly / bruised
1/2 pot Thick Coconut Milk
1 Tamarind Piece
Salt

METHOD:
Place all in a pot & stir all the time until boiled and the brain is cooked.
Serve with white rice.
*************************


BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Otak Masak Lemak Kunyit
Lauk masakan kegemaran Along dari kecil, memang sedap sangat kalau dah suka. Pada yang tak suka makan baguslah sebab kolesterol otak ni 30 kali ganda daging lembu. Tapi bagi yg suka sangat macam Along ni, kita makan sekali dalam beberapa tahun jer. Bukan senang pun nak dapatkan otak lembu. Bab2 makan ni, selalu ikut tekak ler apa tingin hentam je lah, pikir diet kendian2....hehehe. Masakan lauk otak ni cara emak Along masak, memang tak pernah masak cara lain.
BAHAN2:
Otak dari seekor lembu
6 ulas Bwg Merah*
Sedikit Cili Padi*
2 biji Cili Hijau*(*tumbuk)
1 st Serbuk Kunyit
2 helai Daun Kunyit - hiris halus
4 btg Serai - ketuk atau hiris halus
1/2 periuk Santan
1 keping Asam
Garam

CARA2:
Masukkan kesemua bahan2 ke dlm periuk, kacau selalu sehingga menggelegak & otak masak sempurna.
Hidangkan dgn nasi putih.

Salted Fish in Sambal (Again)

 One of my favourite salted fish is salted Shark. Cut them into tiny pieces, deep fry and add into cooked sambal..... very nice appetiser to go along other dishes.
 I've posted this dish earlier on at here but today I pasted the recipe again but in bilingual.

By: Roz@HomeKreation
INGREDIENTS:
1 cup tiny cut Salted Fish
5 Shallots*
1/2 cup Chili Paste*
1cm Belachan* (*blend)
1/2 tsp Tamarind + 2-3 tbsp water
1 Large Onion - sliced
Salt & sugar


METHOD:
1. Wash & soak salted fish for a while so that it is not too salty.
Rinse & deep fry until golden colour.
Keep aside.

2. Heat up some cooking oil & stir fry blended ingredients until fragrant.
Add in tamarind juice, salt & sugar & stir fry until dry.

(Becareful not too much salt as the fish is already salty).
Add in fried salted fish & big onion & cook until well mixed and onion is soften.
Dish out.
****************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Ikan Masin Masak Cili
Along guna ikan Yu masin dan lauk ni memang best sebagai penambah selera.

BAHAN2:
1 cwn Ikan Masin - di potong kecil
5 ulas Bwg Merah*
1/2 cwn Cili Mesin*
1cm Belacan* (*blend)
1/2 tsp Asam Jawa + 2-3 sb Air
1 biji Bwg Besar - hiris
Garam & Gula

CARA2:
1. Basuk ikan masin & di rendam sebentar supaya tidak terlalu masin.
Tapis & goreng sehingga garing.
Angkat & di ketepikan dahulu.

2. Panaskan minyak & tumis bahan2 blend* sehingga wangi.
Masukkan air asam jawa, garam & gula & kacau sehingga kering.
(Hati2 jgn letak garam berlebihan sbb ikan sudah masin)
Masukkan ikan masin & bwg besar. Masak sehingga bwg layu.
Hidangkan dgn nasi bersama lauk-pauk yg lain.


Week 52 Flying

I went flying yesterday and took these pictures of the Temple.  They didn't turn out as well as I would have hoped, but they are still interesting.  The canopy of my Sonex is not as optically clear as a flat window, so there is some distortion in the images.

My flight instructor, Coby, was giving me some transition training in the Sonex, since it handles a lot differently than the Cessna 172 I used to fly and he took control while I snapped these.  BTW, if any of you would like to learn to fly, Coby is a great instructor.  Drop me a comment and I will send you his cell number.




 





 

  


Beef in Kaprau Sauce (Daging Masak ala Kaprau)

 I made Masak ala Kaprau again for third round but using beef this time. What I like so much about it is the basil leaves aroma. Made to serve a friend for dinner on last Friday.

Quite lazy to type tonight, so for recipe refer here and replace chicken with beef which has been boiled until soften.

Untuk resipi, sila lihat kat sini ya, tapi gantikan ayam dgn daging yg telah di rebus sehingga empuk.

The Rising Cost of Food Stamps

A recent article in the Economist discusses the rising costs of food stamps in recent years. As the chart (right) indicates, costs have risen from $35 billion in 2008 to $65 billion last year. Participation has also increased, as nearly 45 million (or one in seven) Americans were recipients of food stamps in April 2011. With budget debates continuing, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives have proposed a 20% reduction in spending on the program by 2015 in their budget outline for next year. The author of this article points out, however, that benefits are "far from lavish," the average being $133 a month, and the recipients are the neediest portion of the population. About half of recipients are children and 18% are elderly. To be eligible, recipients must be receiving an income of 130% or less of the poverty line, but 41% of recipients earn half of that amount or less and 18% earn no income at all. The author also discusses the economic benefits of the food stamps program, quoting Jim Weill of the Food Research and Action Centre, who argues that food stamps stimulate the economy more than other forms of government spending because the money is typically spent immediately due to the low income of recipients.
BRL cf
 

Kek Lumut Sarawak II (Sarawak Steamed Green Cake II)

 Few days ago, my lovely blog friend Nur68 emailed me this very nice recipe of her mum's which she said is an old version of Sarawak Kek Lumut. I get very excited when I received this recipe by looking at the ingredients which uses only sugee flour & nestum with no flour necessary. I couldn't wait to try it out and today is the best opportunity because I was on half day leave in the afternoon and my friend CikY & her son from KL visited us. I invited her for dinner and this cake was one of my treat.

My hubby really loves this cake and he did not stop eating it one by one while complementing the taste. Indeed this is very different than the first Kek Lumut version that I tried earlier here in term of ingredients/texture/taste - it is softer and crumbly and most of all tastier. I will definitely make this again in the future but perhaps should reduce the amount of butter slightly. Thanks so much Nur Cayang & to your kind mum too for sharing a great recipe.

Sorry for keep you waiting. It was passed 1 am when I posted it last night and hence was too tired to type the recipe.

Source: email from Nur68
Recipe below is half of the original measurement
Size: 8" Round
INGREDIENTS:
5 Eggs
1 cup Caster Sugar
8oz Butter
½ cup Sugee Flour
1 cup Nestum
½ cup Ideal Milk
½ cup Tea (2 tsp tea powder + water)
Green Color (I used Pandan Paste)

METHOD:

1. Beat egg until fluffy.
Add in sugar gradually while beating.

2. Beat butter until fluffy & add into egg batter.

Add in sugee flour & nestum until well mixed.
Add in milk, tea & green coloring.

3. Steam for 2 hours until cooked.

**************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Resipi sumbangan daripada sahabat blogger Nur68. Menurut ibu nya ini ialah resepi dulu2 yg asal & tiada menggunakan tepung. Nur kata kalau cair boleh tambah tepung tapi Along tak tambah pun & ok jer keras tapi mungkin kena kurangkan butter sedikit supaya tidak berminyak. Rasa nya tersangat enak sebab rasa suji & nestum yang harum. Maceh setinggi gunung Sentubong kepada Nur68 sebab sudi kongsikan resepi di sini.

Source: email drpd Nur68
Resepi di bawah ni Along dah separuhkan drpd yg asal.
Saiz: 8" Bulat
BAHAN2:
5 biji Telur

1 cwn Gula Halus
8oz Mentega
½ cwn Tepung Suji
1 cwn Nestum
½ cwn Susu Ideal
½ cwn Teh (2 st serbuk teh + air)
Pewarna Hijau (Along guna Pes Pandan)

CARA2:
1. Pukul telur sehingga kembang.
Masukkan gula sedikit2 sambil di pukul.
 

2. Pukul mentega sehingga kembang & campurkan ke dlm adunan telur.
Masukkan tepung suji & nestum & gaul sebati.
Masukkan susu, teh & pewarna hijau.

3. Kukus selama 2 jam sehingga masak.

Are Moderate Republican Governors Going Extinct?

In a recent FiveThirtyEight blog post, Nate Silver rated each governor's political ideology and the ideology of voters in the governor's state on a scale from liberal to conservative. He found that Republican governors--unlike their Democratic counterparts--are abandoning the middle, and are often taking conservative stances that outpace the more moderate views of the voters who elected them to office.

Writes Silver: "Unlike for the Democrats, there is almost no ideological diversity within the group: essentially all of the current Republican governors are quite conservative, taking moderate positions on at most one or two issues. Also unlike the Democrats, there is no correlation between the ideology of the governors and the ideology of the states."

This may be a dangerous development for the Republican party, as "Politics 101 would suggest that you need to be at least somewhat responsive to voters in your state." According to Silver, it is also a fairly recent development. He plots the ideological stances of governors in office a year ago--before the 2010 elections--to show that "there were plenty of moderate Republican governors," many of whom have retired since.

 
 Silver argues that Republican governors' distance from their state's ideology has made them unpopular--and may hurt the G.O.P. in the next election. He writes: "Retribution from the electorate is a strong possibility unless there is a change of course."

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Employment in Japan

We continue modeling the evolution of the employment rate in developed countries with Japan. In this study we use the trade-off between the change in unemployment and employment and Okun’s law. Figure 1 compares the change in the rate of employment (the employment/population ratio), de, and the rate of unemployment, du, in Japan. The change in the rate of unemployment is as volatile as that of unemployment and they differ drastically compared to the synchronized evolution of these variables in the U.S. That’s why we have failed to obtain a reasonable Okun’s law for Japan. As before, all data sets on unemployment and employment have been retrieved from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The estimates of real GDP per capita have been retrieved from the database provided by the Conference Board.

Figure 1. The (negative) change in the rate of unemployment compared to the change in the rate of employment in Japan.

In this blog, we have already presented several empirical relationships predicting the employment/population ratio from the growth rate of real GDP per capita. This was a natural extension of Okun’s law for unemployment.

Here we estimate an employment/GDP model for Japan similar to Okun’s law. For Japan, the best-fit model has been obtained by the least-squares (applied to the cumulative sums):

det = 0.02dlnGt – 0.53, t<1978
det = 0.14dlnGt – 0.42, t>1977 (1)

 
where dlnGt is the change rate of real GDP per capita at time t. Figure 2 shows the cumulative curves for the time series in (1). There is a structural break near 1978 which is expressed by a dramatic shift in slope and a slight break in intercept. The employment/population ratio varies between from 64%% in 1970 and 56% in 2010. The agreement is excellent. Figure 3 present results of a linear regression with R2=0.95 for the period between 1971 and 2010. We consider both variables as stationary ones over the long run despite the obviously negative trend since 1970.

Figure 2. The cumulative curves for the observed and predicted change in the employment/population ratio, de.

Figure 3. Linear regression of the measured and predicted curves in Figure 2.

Employment in Australia

There is a trade-off between the change in unemployment and employment. Figure 1 compares the change in the rate of employment (the employment/population ratio), de, and the rate of unemployment, du, in Australia. As expected, the change in the rate of unemployment is more volatile. All data sets on unemployment and employment have been retrieved from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 1. The (negative) change in the rate of unemployment compared to the change in the rate of employment in Australia.

In this blog, we have already presented several empirical relationships predicting the employment/population ratio from the growth rate of real GDP per capita. This was a natural extension of Okun’s law for unemployment.

Here we estimate an employment/GDP model for Australia similar to Okun’s law. For Australia, the best-fit model has been obtained by the least-squares (applied to the cumulative sums):

det = 0.50dlnGt – 0.92, t<1983
det = 0.41dlnGt – 1.08, t>1982 (1)

where dlnGt is the change rate of real GDP per capita at time t. Figure 2 shows the cumulative curves for the time series in (1). There is a structural break near 1994 which is expressed by significant shifts in slope and intercept. The employment/population ratio varies between from 55%% in 1983 and 64% in 2008. The agreement is very good. Figure 3 present results of a linear regression with R2=0.84 for the period between 1971 and 2010.

Figure 2. The cumulative curves for the observed and predicted change in the employment/population ratio, de.

Figure 3. Linear regression of the measured and predicted curves in Figure 2.

Employment in France

There is a trade-off between the change in unemployment and employment. Figure 1 compares the change in the rate of employment (the employment/population ratio), de, and the rate of unemployment, du, in France. As expected, the change in the rate of unemployment is more volatile except the shift in the employment rate near 1982. This is a completely artificial break from 53.2% in 1981 to 55.3% in 1982, and we do not need to model it. All data sets on unemployment and employment have been retrieved from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 1. The (negative) change in the rate of unemployment compared to the change in the rate of employment in France.

In this blog, we have already presented several empirical relationships predicting the employment/population ratio from the growth rate of real GDP per capita. This was a natural extension of Okun’s law for unemployment.

Here we estimate an employment/GDP model for France similar to Okun’s law. For France, the best-fit model has been obtained by the least-squares (applied to the cumulative sums):

de = 0.155dlnG– 0.65, t<1994
de= 0.25dlnG – 0.30, t>1993 (1)

where dlnG is the change rate of real GDP per capita at time t. Figure 2 shows the cumulative curves for the time series in (1). There is a structural break near 1994 which is expressed by significant shifts in slope and intercept. The employment/population ratio varies between from ~56%% in 1970 and 50.4% in 1992. The agreement is very good. Figure 3 present results of a linear regression with R2=0.91 for the period between 1971 and 2010.

Figure 2. The cumulative curves for the observed and predicted change in the employment/population ratio, de.

Figure 3. Linear regression of the measured and predicted curves in Figure 2.

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