According to the New York Times, 22 governors have committed to expanding their state's Medicaid program, including seven states with Republican governors. In the wake of the 2012 Supreme Court decision that made an expansion of government-sponsored health care for lower-income people a state decision, Medicaid expansion has been a polemic issue at the state level.
The federal government has agreed to pay all costs of such an expansion from 2014 to 2016, afterwards paying 90% for an unspecified time, but some governors were not swayed. Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, North Dakota, Michigan, Ohio, and Florida are the seven states with Republican governors that now voice support for the bill. These changes of heart are due to government funding, consumer advocacy, and the health care industry. Many hospitals are voicing support for the expansion, claiming that the less expensive Medicaid insurance will make up whatever losses the hospitals might incur by the volume of the newly insured. Were all 22 states to choose to expand Medicaid, the 60 million covered by Medicaid currently would increase to 77 million insured people.
California's Recovering Economy
Adam Nagourney, writing for The New York Times, examined California's recovering economy. Compared to the rest of the nation, the Golden State experienced one of the longest and harshest downturns, spurred on by widespread foreclosures and a ballooning unemployment rate that surged to over 12.4% in mid-2010. But by October, unemployment had dropped to 10.1% - high for most states, but a marked improvement for California. In fact, the month-to-month drop from August to September (10.6% to 10.2%) was the state's largest decrease in the 36 years since it began tabulating unemployment statistics. The housing market is recovering as well. Home sales are up 25% from a year ago, and houses are staying on the market for a shorter period of time and selling for higher prices. The California Legislative Analyst's Office projects the state to post a $1.9 billion deficit next year, and perhaps even a $1 billion surplus. California's deficit was at one point over $25 billion – bigger than many states' budgets. With that said, a significant geographical divide characterizes the recovery. Coastal areas are posting much lower unemployment rates and possess healthier housing markets than the inland areas. Additionally, by some measuresCalifornia still has the worst poverty rate. The state has rebounded significantly, but still has considerable work left to be done.
Chinese Leaving in Droves for Other Developed Nations
On October 31, the New York Times highlighted China's difficulties in keeping residents from emigrating to other developed nations. While China's economy has experienced robust economic growth in recent years, more and more Chinese continue to leave the nation in search of a new life. The lack of religious freedom and the lure of a more liberated social and economic environment has driven an increasingly high number of Chinese out of the country. In 2010, 508,000 Chinese departed for one of the 34 developed countries that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The U.S. welcomed 87,000 permanent residents in 2011, up from 70,000 in 2010. But this feeling of uncertainty and unrest is not a one-way street. The lethargic recoveries hampering the economies in the West has driven Chinese students back home in droves. In 2011, the number of students returning to China was up 40% from the previous year. Even still, it appears China is experiencing a sort of "brain drain." The United States' investment-based green card program allows foreigners to obtain a green card if they invest over $500,000 into American businesses. Chinese citizens obtained well over 2,000 of these specialized permits, more than double the investment-based green cards of all other nationalities combined. Supreme Court Decision on the Affordable Care Act Projected to Save Federal Government $84 Billion
In an articlefor the New York Times, author Robert Pear dissected the Congressional Budget Office’s revised estimates on the effects of the Affordable Care Act after the landmark Supreme Court decision to uphold the law. A key portion of the decision alters the legislation to permit States to opt out of the proposed Medicaid expansion. The CBO predicts that an additional 3 million people will now go without health insurance due to this new aspect of the law, but the agency also expects the federal government should save approximately $84 billion over the next 11 years. The Affordable Care Act is still projected to provide coverage to 30 million of the 60 million presently uninsured Americans at a price tag of $1.7 trillion over the course of 11 years. The bulk of the cost emerges after 2014, when many provisions of the Affordable Care Act will take effect.
Southern States Participate Most in Social Welfare Programs
A previous Data in the News postfocused on the rising participation rate in means-tested assistance programs, and an interactive map on The New York Times website this week displayed the geographic distribution of government benefits. Welfare programs accounted for 17.6% of personal income in 2009, the highest in history. In 1929, total entitlements accounted for just 1% of Americans’ incomes, but with the expansion of Social Security, the initiation of Medicare and many other government programs, and the overall growth in entitlement spending, the share of income via welfare programs has risen substantially.
And while all regions have experienced a greater flow of government benefits to their residents, states in the South and in the western portion of the Sun Belt have seen their dependence on government welfare programs rise the most. States such as Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, Arizona, New Mexico and Tennessee possess many counties with a high level of dependence on government benefits; some counties have a level of transfer income per capita of over $10,000.
America at a Glance
The New York Times has extracted data from the Census Bureau's 2005-2009 American Community Survey in order to compose a map displaying the racial, socioeconomic, and educational composition of the U.S. In terms of income distribution, there is a high density of Americans earning over $200,000 in the Northeast. For instance, more than 15% of the population in Hunterdon, New Jersey, Fairfield, Connecticut, and Westchester, New York earn over $200,000. Another map illustrating the percentage of foreign born residents shows a high concentration throughout much of California, southern Arizona, south and southwest Texas, and southern Florida. Additionally, New York City and the region surrounding it possesses a high percentage of foreign born residents.
Homicides Up 38% In Chicago
Monica Davey of The New York Times examined homicides in some of America’s largest cities. Chicago’s Mayor, Rahm Emanuel, ranked safer streets among his top three priorities when he first took office; however, homicides are up 38% from a year ago. Killings have fallen in other cities like New York and Los Angeles, something Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg attributes in part to the city’s controversial stop-and-frisk program. Philadelphia joins Chicago as a major city in which homicides have increased. As of June 20, 173 homicides were reported in the City of Brotherly Love, up from 143 by the same time last year. It is important to note that Chicago has experienced a drastic drop in killings since the early 1990s when more than 900 were killed annually.
Coal Consumption Falling Fast
Louisa, Kentucky relied on coal to power not just its homes, but also to sustain its residents' livelihoods. Today, though, Eric Lipton of the New York Times reports that many coal towns like Louisa may abandon coal in favor of natural gas. The black, sooty rock has been the subject of costly new pollution laws and environmentalists' scorn, not to mention the surge in natural gas production (spurred on by fracking, a new and effective extraction method) that has drastically depressed gas prices. Michael G. Morris, the Chairman of American Electric Power, is looking to switch production from coal to natural gas, and his decision does not appear to be isolated. In 2008, coal consumption stood at well over 1,000 million short tons, but by 2013, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects just 800 million short tons in consumption per year. Additionally, while coal consisted of 53% of electricity generation by fuel in 1990, the projections for 2013 put that share at just 39%.
Minorities Now Account for The Majority of Births in the U.S.
This past Thursday, the Census Bureau announced that white births now account for less than half of all births in the United States. For the first time, minorities account for the majority of births (50.4%). Dr. William H. Frey, SSDAN Director and senior demographer at the Brookings Institution, explained, “This is an important tipping point.” He described the trend as a “transformation from a mostly white baby boomer culture to the more globalized multiethnic country that we are becoming. Sabrina Tavernise of The New York Times writes that Hispanics, blacks, and Asians accounted for 26%, 15%, and 4% respectively of births in the year ending in July 2011. Still, though, whites represent 49.6% of all births – the single largest share of any ethnicity. Dr. Frey also discovered another interesting fact: minorities accounted for a whopping 92 percent of all population growth in the decade ending in 2010. You can read the full New York Times article here, which goes more into detail on historical implications and on what else may have contributed to this fascinating trend.
Americans Weigh in on the 2010 Health Care Law
March 29th marks the completion of the final day of the Supreme Court’s health care hearings. The Court is expected to make its ruling in late June. In conjunction with the final day of arguments, The New York Times released its polling data on the public’s support and comprehension of the Affordable Care Act and its implications. The poll finds that 47% of Americans disapprove of the legislation, while 36% approve. In addition, while the public can only speculate on the outcome of the health care hearings, the American people have specific opinions on how the Supreme Court should handle the case. 26% believe the law should remain intact, 29% favor overturning the individual mandate, and 38% would prefer the Court to find the entire law unconstitutional. Americans are much more favorable of the law’s specific provisions. Aside from the individual mandate (51% of Americans disapprove of the Affordable Care Act’s requirement that Americans purchase health insurance), the majority of Americans support: (1) the Act’s requirement that health insurance companies cover those possessing existing medical conditions, (2) The provision permitting children to remain on their parents’ policies until age 26, and (3) the Affordable Care Act’s attempt to close the prescription drug coverage gap, commonly known as the “doughnut hole.”
In terms of the personal effects of the 2010 health care law, most Americans believe the legislation will not have much effect on their overall health care benefits or the quality of care they receive, but they do expect their health care costs to increase as a result of the legislation.
Lastly, it appears that many Americans are confused with how the Affordable Care Act will affect them and their families. 48% of the public does not understand the 2,700-page act and the effects it will have on their families, while 47% say they do understand the law.
Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance On the Decline
Paul Krugman and Reed Abelson, writing with the New York Times, recently highlighted a study displaying the trends within the sources of health insurance for nonelderly Americans. The study, carried out by the National Institute for Health Care Reform (NIHCR), looked at the form of health insurance coverage for Americans from 2001 to 2010. The study found that the share of Americans under 65 who receive coverage from Medicaid has risen over 8 percent, up from 9.5 percent in 2001 to 17.6 percent in 2010. This trend illustrates the paradox of government-sponsored insurance in times of a recession; as people begin to lose their jobs and income, they are more likely to fall under the umbrella of Medicaid. With the diminishing revenue from income tax, however, the state and federal governments have less funds to support Medicaid. When a recession hits, more people need Medicaid, but there is less money to fund the program. The NIHCR data displays this trend, but it also shows the rapidly declining percentage of nonelderly Americans who receive health insurance from their employer. The share of Americans under 65 who receive employer-sponsored coverage is down from 69.8 percent in 2001 to 53.5 percent in 2010. This severe drop in employer-sponsored coverage can be attributed to the rise in unemployment over the past decade in conjunction with the decline of employers willing and/or able to provide coverage to employees. The final notable trend illustrated in the NIHCR study was the growing number of uninsured nonelderly Americans. The share of Americans under 65 who remain uninsured rose from 14.1 percent in 2001 to 19.5 percent in 2010. The recession clearly had notable impacts on health insurance coverage, but it will be interesting to see how the recently passed Affordable Care Act, which will not be fully implemented until the beginning of 2015, will affect the NIHCR’s numbers in the future. In addition, the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act (specifically, the individual mandate) is currently under review by the Supreme Court, so the outcome of the case will also have significant implications for health insurance coverage.
Unemployment By Industry
In one of the New York Time’s Economix blog posts, Motoko Rich discusses changes in the unemployment rate by industry from February 2011 to February 2012, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While unemployment remained relatively unchanged at 8.3 percent in February “mainly because more people started – or resumed – looking for work,” the data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows quite a bit of variability in unemployment between industries. For example, as the table from the Bureau of Labor Statistics above shows, construction experienced a 4.7% decrease (from 21.8 % to 17.1%). Agriculture; information; and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction all saw increases in unemployment of 1.1%, 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. In addition to changes in unemployment rate, the rates themselves also vary widely; agricultural workers experienced an unemployment rate of 19.5% while government workers experienced only 3.9% unemployment.Case-Shiller Index: Housing Prices Decline
The New York Times has gathered data from the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index, which charts prices from 20 major cities across the U.S., to examine how home prices have changed recently. Prices peaked in mid-2006 and soon began their precipitous downturn. April of 2009 marks the month when home prices appeared to bottom out and commence a sluggish recovery; however, recent data suggests that home prices have actually fallen below this previous low point.
Markets in the 20 metropolitan areas that the index covers have seen prices drop 1.8 percent since April 2009 and 4.0 percent from the beginning to the end of 2011. Cities like Charlotte, Portland, Seattle and Atlanta where housing prices peaked later – 2007 as opposed to mid-2006 – have experienced the greatest decline. San Francisco, Detroit, Boston and other housing markets that peaked prematurely in late 2005 to early 2006 have seen prices increase or only slightly decrease since April 2009. The relationship between when the high point occurred and the change in prices since April 2009 stems from the length of time needed for the markets to self-correct. For instance in Seattle, where the market peaked in July of 2007, prices are still dropping to realign with income levels in the region. Of the twenty metropolitan areas, the Las Vegas market has seen the steepest decline in prices, dropping 19.3% since April 2009. San Francisco, on the other hand, where the market peaked early in 2006, has actually experienced an 8.7 percent increase in housing prices.
Markets in the 20 metropolitan areas that the index covers have seen prices drop 1.8 percent since April 2009 and 4.0 percent from the beginning to the end of 2011. Cities like Charlotte, Portland, Seattle and Atlanta where housing prices peaked later – 2007 as opposed to mid-2006 – have experienced the greatest decline. San Francisco, Detroit, Boston and other housing markets that peaked prematurely in late 2005 to early 2006 have seen prices increase or only slightly decrease since April 2009. The relationship between when the high point occurred and the change in prices since April 2009 stems from the length of time needed for the markets to self-correct. For instance in Seattle, where the market peaked in July of 2007, prices are still dropping to realign with income levels in the region. Of the twenty metropolitan areas, the Las Vegas market has seen the steepest decline in prices, dropping 19.3% since April 2009. San Francisco, on the other hand, where the market peaked early in 2006, has actually experienced an 8.7 percent increase in housing prices.
Why Data Literacy is Important Today More than Ever
In a recent New York Times article, Steve Lohr discusses the growing need for data-literate employees in almost every sector as businesses “drift towards data-driven discovery and decision making” and we move forward in “the Age of Big Data." Lohr refers to a report published last year by McKinsey Global Institute, which projects that “the United States needs 140,000 to 190,000 more workers with ‘deep analytical’ expertise and 1.5 million more data-literate managers.” According to Lohr, the amount of data increases by 50% every year and it is this growing abundance of information that has helped bring us to this so-called Age of Big Data. This rapid data growth can be attributed to things ranging from the creation of new digital sensors by manufacturing firms to greater accessibility to U.S. government data on the internet. According to Lohr, this wealth of new data - in particular, Google searches, Facebook posts and tweets - allow us to observe and measure things in a way that we have previously not been able to do. For example, trends in the number of housing-related searches have more accurately predicted housing sales than real estate economists and a spike in google searches related to flu symptoms tends to precede an increase in flu patients coming to hospital emergency rooms in the region by a couple of weeks. Lohr predicts that business will increasingly rely on analysis of data such as this in decision making as part of “data-guided management”. For example, large retailers such as Walmart and Kohl’s now use data ranging from sales to the weather to time price markdowns.
A Look at the Top 1% Shows Shift to Finance, Stability Within its Ranks and High Political Engagement
The Economist took a look at the top one percent and "the changing complexion of America’s rich." It highlighted Mitt Romney as a reflection of this change, because "the wealthiest 1% of Americans not only get more of the pie," but also because "they are increasingly creatures of finance." There have been wealthy presidential candidates before, but Romney represents "the first candidate from the world of high-octane finance."
The Economist writes of the shift to finance, "According to an analysis of tax returns by Jon Bakija of Williams College and two others, 16% of the top 1% were in medical professions and 8% were lawyers: shares that have changed little between 1979 and 2005, the latest year the authors examined (see chart). The most striking shift has been the growth of financial occupations, from just under 8% of the wealthy in 1979 to 13.9% in 2005. Their representation within the top 0.1% is even more pronounced: 18%, up from 11% in 1979." A graphic from the New York Times also focuses on the occupational distribution of the top one percent.
Also indicative of the shift to finance, it appears that the wealthiest of the wealthy are now employed in financial occupations, a change from years past. "[Steve] Kaplan [of the University of Chicago] and Joshua Rauh of Northwestern University note that investment bankers, corporate lawyers, hedge-fund and private-equity managers have displaced corporate executives at the top of the income ladder. In 2009 the richest 25 hedge-fund investors earned more than $25 billion, roughly six times as much as all the chief executives of companies in the S&P 500 stock index combined."
What does a household in the top one percent make? "The average household income of the 1% was $1.2m in 2008, according to federal tax data." But The Economist notes, "The ultra-rich skew that average upwards: admission to the 1% began at $380,000 in 2008." Of course, income is not the only measurement of wealth: "Measured by net worth, rather than income, the top 1% started at $6.9m in 2009, according to the Federal Reserve, down 23% from 2007."
The Economist cites Mr. Kaplan, who argues that the move to finance largely accounts for the growth in the wealth gap. "Updating a series developed by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, Mr Kaplan notes that the share of income going to the 1% reached an 80-year high of 23.5% in 2007, only to sink to 17.6% in 2009 as the financial markets deflated (see chart). The trend is even more pronounced for the top 0.1%, whose share of total income rose to 12.3% in 2007 but sank to a still disproportionate 8.1% in 2009."
Research indicates that inequality in the U.S., as measured by the share of total income that goes to the top one percent of earners, has grown faster than in other countries. The Economist surmises that among other factors, this development could be resulting from "the relatively large role of the financial sector in English-speaking countries...[as] even more of the top 1% work in finance in Britain than in America."
Chances are that if you are born wealthy, you are likely to retain your wealth as an adult: "Membership in America’s 1% is relatively stable; three-quarters of the households in the percentile one year will still be there the next. Although the proportion shrinks over time, one study found that the vast majority of the top 1% were still in the richest 10% a decade later." The reason for this is fairly straight-forward: "rich parents tend to produce rich kids." Their children go to college and graduate institutions at a disproportionately high rate; "According to Gallup, 72% of the 1% have a college degree, and half have a postgraduate degree; those are two to three times the proportion of the other 99%." Numbers also indicate, "The 1% are more likely to be married and to have children."
And if you're born wealthy, it's likely that you'll marry someone from a similar economic background. "The rich also increasingly marry people like themselves. Mr Bakija and his co-authors found that between 1979 and 2005, the share of spouses of the 1% who had blue-collar or 'miscellaneous' service-sector backgrounds declined slightly, from 7.9% to 6.4%. The share of spouses who worked in finance, property and law rose from 3.5% to 8.8%."
Individuals in the top one percent are likely to be politically active, and although their political preferences are somewhat "eclectic," they tend to lean toward the Republican party. "Politically, Gallup polls find that the 1% are more likely than the 99% to identify themselves as Republicans (33% to 28%) and less likely to be Democrats (26% to 33%)." They rate the budget deficit as their central concern, and unemployment as their second; the other 99 percent of Americans prioritize these concerns in the reverse order.
The Economist writes that individuals in the top one percent "are far more politically engaged than the average 99-percenters," citing a study which showed that "68% make campaign contributions, nearly half had contacted a member of Congress and a fifth had solicited contributions on behalf of a candidate."
How would individuals in the top one percent describe themselves? Often, it is difficult to locate an answer: "Most of the 1% prefer not to talk about their good fortune."
The Economist writes of the shift to finance, "According to an analysis of tax returns by Jon Bakija of Williams College and two others, 16% of the top 1% were in medical professions and 8% were lawyers: shares that have changed little between 1979 and 2005, the latest year the authors examined (see chart). The most striking shift has been the growth of financial occupations, from just under 8% of the wealthy in 1979 to 13.9% in 2005. Their representation within the top 0.1% is even more pronounced: 18%, up from 11% in 1979." A graphic from the New York Times also focuses on the occupational distribution of the top one percent.
Also indicative of the shift to finance, it appears that the wealthiest of the wealthy are now employed in financial occupations, a change from years past. "[Steve] Kaplan [of the University of Chicago] and Joshua Rauh of Northwestern University note that investment bankers, corporate lawyers, hedge-fund and private-equity managers have displaced corporate executives at the top of the income ladder. In 2009 the richest 25 hedge-fund investors earned more than $25 billion, roughly six times as much as all the chief executives of companies in the S&P 500 stock index combined."
What does a household in the top one percent make? "The average household income of the 1% was $1.2m in 2008, according to federal tax data." But The Economist notes, "The ultra-rich skew that average upwards: admission to the 1% began at $380,000 in 2008." Of course, income is not the only measurement of wealth: "Measured by net worth, rather than income, the top 1% started at $6.9m in 2009, according to the Federal Reserve, down 23% from 2007."
The Economist cites Mr. Kaplan, who argues that the move to finance largely accounts for the growth in the wealth gap. "Updating a series developed by Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez, Mr Kaplan notes that the share of income going to the 1% reached an 80-year high of 23.5% in 2007, only to sink to 17.6% in 2009 as the financial markets deflated (see chart). The trend is even more pronounced for the top 0.1%, whose share of total income rose to 12.3% in 2007 but sank to a still disproportionate 8.1% in 2009."
Research indicates that inequality in the U.S., as measured by the share of total income that goes to the top one percent of earners, has grown faster than in other countries. The Economist surmises that among other factors, this development could be resulting from "the relatively large role of the financial sector in English-speaking countries...[as] even more of the top 1% work in finance in Britain than in America."
Chances are that if you are born wealthy, you are likely to retain your wealth as an adult: "Membership in America’s 1% is relatively stable; three-quarters of the households in the percentile one year will still be there the next. Although the proportion shrinks over time, one study found that the vast majority of the top 1% were still in the richest 10% a decade later." The reason for this is fairly straight-forward: "rich parents tend to produce rich kids." Their children go to college and graduate institutions at a disproportionately high rate; "According to Gallup, 72% of the 1% have a college degree, and half have a postgraduate degree; those are two to three times the proportion of the other 99%." Numbers also indicate, "The 1% are more likely to be married and to have children."
And if you're born wealthy, it's likely that you'll marry someone from a similar economic background. "The rich also increasingly marry people like themselves. Mr Bakija and his co-authors found that between 1979 and 2005, the share of spouses of the 1% who had blue-collar or 'miscellaneous' service-sector backgrounds declined slightly, from 7.9% to 6.4%. The share of spouses who worked in finance, property and law rose from 3.5% to 8.8%."
Individuals in the top one percent are likely to be politically active, and although their political preferences are somewhat "eclectic," they tend to lean toward the Republican party. "Politically, Gallup polls find that the 1% are more likely than the 99% to identify themselves as Republicans (33% to 28%) and less likely to be Democrats (26% to 33%)." They rate the budget deficit as their central concern, and unemployment as their second; the other 99 percent of Americans prioritize these concerns in the reverse order.
The Economist writes that individuals in the top one percent "are far more politically engaged than the average 99-percenters," citing a study which showed that "68% make campaign contributions, nearly half had contacted a member of Congress and a fifth had solicited contributions on behalf of a candidate."
How would individuals in the top one percent describe themselves? Often, it is difficult to locate an answer: "Most of the 1% prefer not to talk about their good fortune."
Negative Press Coverage Plagues Front-Runner Romney
According to the Pew Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism, Mitt Romney is receiving more negative press coverage than at any other point in the GOP race. Romney, who won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, will compete against remaining GOP candidates in South Carolina's primary on Saturday.
According to Pew's analysis, this increase in negative coverage for Romney may reflect opponents' efforts to attack the current frontrunner through negative advertisements. In particular, negative discourse regarding Romney revolved around his career at Bain Capital. According to an article on the Politics and Government Blog of the New York Times, GOP candidate opponent Newt Gingrich described Romney's work at Bain as "rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company."
According to the same report, Ron Paul is currently receiving more positive coverage than any other candidate. Almost half of the coverage of Ron Paul over the past week has been positive; according to the report, Paul has been described in many press accounts as "having little chance of winning the nomination."
Of all GOP candidates, Rick Perry currently is criticized the most, with his negative coverage nearly double his positive coverage. Coverage of President Obama from January 9, 2012 to January, 15, 2012 included fewer positive mentions than any of the GOP candidates. Only 10% of coverage regarding Obama was positive. These data come from an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites and mentions on Twitter.
According to Pew's analysis, this increase in negative coverage for Romney may reflect opponents' efforts to attack the current frontrunner through negative advertisements. In particular, negative discourse regarding Romney revolved around his career at Bain Capital. According to an article on the Politics and Government Blog of the New York Times, GOP candidate opponent Newt Gingrich described Romney's work at Bain as "rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company."
According to the same report, Ron Paul is currently receiving more positive coverage than any other candidate. Almost half of the coverage of Ron Paul over the past week has been positive; according to the report, Paul has been described in many press accounts as "having little chance of winning the nomination."
Of all GOP candidates, Rick Perry currently is criticized the most, with his negative coverage nearly double his positive coverage. Coverage of President Obama from January 9, 2012 to January, 15, 2012 included fewer positive mentions than any of the GOP candidates. Only 10% of coverage regarding Obama was positive. These data come from an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites and mentions on Twitter.
New Study Shows Teachers--and Test Scores--Matter in the Long-Term
A new study by three economists suggests that elementary- and middle-school teachers who help increase their students' standardized-test scores have a significant, positive and lasting impact on those students' lives in the long term. Their influence extends beyond academics, as good teachers also mean "lower teenage-pregnancy rates and greater college matriculation and adult earnings," writes the New York Times. The study tracked the lives of 2.5 million students over 20 years, "allowing for a deeper look at how much the quality of individual teachers matters over the long term."
Although the economists set out to challenge the use of value-added ratings, which according to the Times "measure the impact individual teachers have on student test scores," researchers ultimately found that "controlling for numerous factors, including students’ backgrounds...the value-added scores consistently identified some teachers as better than others, even if individual teachers’ value-added scores varied from year to year." They concluded that "using value-added scores would lead to fewer mistakes, not more."
And the positive effect of teachers who increased student test scores was striking. The Times notes, "Replacing a poor teacher with an average one would raise a single classroom’s lifetime earnings by about $266,000, the economists estimate. Multiply that by a career’s worth of classrooms." The researchers surmise that the same results would be obtained by replacing an average teacher with an excellent teacher: "Given the difficulty of finding, training and retaining outstanding teachers...the difference in long-term outcome between students who have average teachers and those with poor-performing ones is as significant as the difference between those who have excellent teachers and those with average ones."
The positive effect of an excellent teacher on one individual student is less impressive than that teacher's potential impact on the entire class taken together, of course. "All else equal, a student with one excellent teacher for one year between fourth and eighth grade would gain $4,600 in lifetime income, compared to a student of similar demographics who has an average teacher. The student with the excellent teacher would also be 0.5 percent more likely to attend college." Still, "students with top teachers are less likely to become pregnant as teenagers, more likely to enroll in college, and more likely to earn more money as adults."
The study will likely add fuel to the value-added score debate, as many people--and teachers' unions--"say that isolating the effect of a given teacher is harder than it seems, and might unfairly penalize some instructors." The researchers of this study are firmly on the other side: "The authors argue that school districts should use value-added measures in evaluations, and...remove the lowest performers." One of the researchers, Harvard Professor John N. Friedman, was quoted in the Times as saying, “The message is to fire people sooner rather than later.”
Although the economists set out to challenge the use of value-added ratings, which according to the Times "measure the impact individual teachers have on student test scores," researchers ultimately found that "controlling for numerous factors, including students’ backgrounds...the value-added scores consistently identified some teachers as better than others, even if individual teachers’ value-added scores varied from year to year." They concluded that "using value-added scores would lead to fewer mistakes, not more."
And the positive effect of teachers who increased student test scores was striking. The Times notes, "Replacing a poor teacher with an average one would raise a single classroom’s lifetime earnings by about $266,000, the economists estimate. Multiply that by a career’s worth of classrooms." The researchers surmise that the same results would be obtained by replacing an average teacher with an excellent teacher: "Given the difficulty of finding, training and retaining outstanding teachers...the difference in long-term outcome between students who have average teachers and those with poor-performing ones is as significant as the difference between those who have excellent teachers and those with average ones."
The positive effect of an excellent teacher on one individual student is less impressive than that teacher's potential impact on the entire class taken together, of course. "All else equal, a student with one excellent teacher for one year between fourth and eighth grade would gain $4,600 in lifetime income, compared to a student of similar demographics who has an average teacher. The student with the excellent teacher would also be 0.5 percent more likely to attend college." Still, "students with top teachers are less likely to become pregnant as teenagers, more likely to enroll in college, and more likely to earn more money as adults."
The study will likely add fuel to the value-added score debate, as many people--and teachers' unions--"say that isolating the effect of a given teacher is harder than it seems, and might unfairly penalize some instructors." The researchers of this study are firmly on the other side: "The authors argue that school districts should use value-added measures in evaluations, and...remove the lowest performers." One of the researchers, Harvard Professor John N. Friedman, was quoted in the Times as saying, “The message is to fire people sooner rather than later.”
No Longer an Urban Problem, Poverty Surges in Suburbs
According to a New York Times article, more than half of those living in poverty in metropolitan areas live in suburban areas. The article lists at least nine metropolitan populations of which more than 50% live in the suburbs. Over the past ten years, these nine metropolitan areas have shifted to the majority of their poor being concentrated in the suburbs. The Detroit-Warren area has a larger share of its poor population living the the suburbs than any other metropolitan area, with 59% of its poor population living in the suburbs.
According to the article, tackling suburban poverty presents a unique set of challenges. Suburbs lack the relatively large number of social assistance programs which exist in urban areas. In addition, the lack of public transportation in suburban areas makes any social programs less accessible than they might be in urban areas.
Over the past ten years, the number of poor residents in suburbs has increased by five million. Midwestern suburbs were among those most affected. The article cites a recent analysis by the Brookings Institution to show that recently the rise in suburban poor has been the most pronounced in areas most affected by the housing collapse such as Cape Coral, Florida and Riverside, California.
Overall, a majority (55%) of the metropolitan poor now live in suburbs. Ten years ago, a little less than half (49%) of the metropolitan poor lived in the suburbs. Although growth of poverty in the suburbs has been more pronounced than in urban areas, the poverty rate in suburbs is still far below that in urban areas. In 2010, the suburban poverty rate was 11.4%. The urban poverty rate was 20.9%.
JVSF cf
Private Employers Add Jobs in September But Do Little to Alleviate Concerns About Economy; Heavy Losses in Public Education
The U.S. Labor Department published its September employment report Friday, and although it showed that the private sector added 137,000 jobs in the month, concerns about the economy remain. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1 percent and as the New York Times comments,"While the number of new jobs exceeded consensus forecasts, it was barely enough to accommodate population growth, much less help those who have been out of work for an extended period." The number of jobs added was also inflated due to the return of 45,000 Verizon employees who had been striking in August.
The ranks of the unemployed are still large, and they include many people who have faced long-term unemployment: "there are still 14 million people searching for work, a little less than half of them for six months or longer," the Times writes. And with the housing market "still teetering" and the public sector hurting, there is plenty to worry about in the report. Local government cut 35,000 jobs in September, 24,400 of which were in public education. The president of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten, told the Times that 277,000 education jobs had been cut since 2008--and that she expects another 280,000 to go in the next year.
There were, however, other positive signs in the report. For one, according to the Times, "the government...revised its estimates upward for the previous two months, suggesting that job growth in July and August had been better than originally reported." It "reported net gains of 127,000 and 57,000 jobs in July and August, respectively, an increase from the originally released numbers."
Further, auto sales increased nearly ten percent, reaching their highest level in five months; and sales at chain stores, led by luxury goods, also saw an increase in September. Also encouraging, the economy began to chip away at the consumer confidence lows that had been reported in recent months. The health care industry added 44,000 employees; employment and business services 48,000; and the information industry added 34,000 jobs in the month.
As President Obama continues his efforts to get Congress to pass his proposed jobs bill, both parties will likely try and use new data to convince the public that their economic approach is the right one. Senator Eric Cantor has already seized on the newest opportunity, responding to Friday's release by saying: "Unfortunately, the policies being promoted by this administration are serving as a roadblock to growth. Constant threats of tax increases and excessive regulations send the wrong signal to our entrepreneurs, investors and small business people."
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The ranks of the unemployed are still large, and they include many people who have faced long-term unemployment: "there are still 14 million people searching for work, a little less than half of them for six months or longer," the Times writes. And with the housing market "still teetering" and the public sector hurting, there is plenty to worry about in the report. Local government cut 35,000 jobs in September, 24,400 of which were in public education. The president of the American Federation of Teachers, Randi Weingarten, told the Times that 277,000 education jobs had been cut since 2008--and that she expects another 280,000 to go in the next year.There were, however, other positive signs in the report. For one, according to the Times, "the government...revised its estimates upward for the previous two months, suggesting that job growth in July and August had been better than originally reported." It "reported net gains of 127,000 and 57,000 jobs in July and August, respectively, an increase from the originally released numbers."
Further, auto sales increased nearly ten percent, reaching their highest level in five months; and sales at chain stores, led by luxury goods, also saw an increase in September. Also encouraging, the economy began to chip away at the consumer confidence lows that had been reported in recent months. The health care industry added 44,000 employees; employment and business services 48,000; and the information industry added 34,000 jobs in the month.
As President Obama continues his efforts to get Congress to pass his proposed jobs bill, both parties will likely try and use new data to convince the public that their economic approach is the right one. Senator Eric Cantor has already seized on the newest opportunity, responding to Friday's release by saying: "Unfortunately, the policies being promoted by this administration are serving as a roadblock to growth. Constant threats of tax increases and excessive regulations send the wrong signal to our entrepreneurs, investors and small business people."
NH cf
With Revenues Down, Lawmakers Look to Alcohol
The New York Times recognized a new strategy among state and city governments trying to raise revenues during the economic recession: target alcohol. They write: "Since the recession started in earnest in 2008, dozens of states and cities have tinkered with laws that regulate alcohol sales as a way to build up their budgets."
Changes to existing laws have ranged from raising taxes on alcohol to trying to make it available on days it has traditionally not been sold, with a lot of tactics falling in between. According to the Times: "Twelve states have raised taxes on alcohol or changed alcohol laws to increase revenue, including Maryland, which in July pushed the sales tax on alcohol to 9 percent, from 6 percent — the first such increase in 38 years and one that is expected to bring in $85 million a year." And "in November, voters in Atlanta and elsewhere in Georgia will decide whether to repeal colonial-era laws that ban alcohol sales on Sunday."
Some of the changes to laws appear relatively small, yet governments still hope to bring in new revenue. Take Tennessee for example: "People touring the Jack Daniel’s distillery in Lynchburg, Tenn., may finally be able to have a sip now that the state has loosened laws to allow tastings as part of a package of changes intended to attract more alcohol-related business to the state."
And it is not just government hoping to bring in more revenue from changes to alcohol law. In Louisiana, universities are joining the crowd: "Fans of the Louisiana State University Tigers will soon be drinking Bandit Blonde...The university will get royalties of between 6 and 8 percent, said Charles D’Agostino, executive director of the university’s Louisiana Business and Technology Center."
Until the recession, alcohol revenue had been a growing industry; today, "the nation’s states and local governments take in $17 billion year from alcohol taxes."
What does the Times have to say about new developments in alcohol law?
"Drink up, America. The government needs the money."
NH cf
Changes to existing laws have ranged from raising taxes on alcohol to trying to make it available on days it has traditionally not been sold, with a lot of tactics falling in between. According to the Times: "Twelve states have raised taxes on alcohol or changed alcohol laws to increase revenue, including Maryland, which in July pushed the sales tax on alcohol to 9 percent, from 6 percent — the first such increase in 38 years and one that is expected to bring in $85 million a year." And "in November, voters in Atlanta and elsewhere in Georgia will decide whether to repeal colonial-era laws that ban alcohol sales on Sunday."
Some of the changes to laws appear relatively small, yet governments still hope to bring in new revenue. Take Tennessee for example: "People touring the Jack Daniel’s distillery in Lynchburg, Tenn., may finally be able to have a sip now that the state has loosened laws to allow tastings as part of a package of changes intended to attract more alcohol-related business to the state."
And it is not just government hoping to bring in more revenue from changes to alcohol law. In Louisiana, universities are joining the crowd: "Fans of the Louisiana State University Tigers will soon be drinking Bandit Blonde...The university will get royalties of between 6 and 8 percent, said Charles D’Agostino, executive director of the university’s Louisiana Business and Technology Center."
Until the recession, alcohol revenue had been a growing industry; today, "the nation’s states and local governments take in $17 billion year from alcohol taxes."
What does the Times have to say about new developments in alcohol law?
"Drink up, America. The government needs the money."
NH cf








