Can Obama's second term outperform his first?

On President Obama’s inauguration day for his second term, the Economist explores the economic performance of two-term presidents since the start of the 20^th century.  A range of sources measured performance according to industrial production, federal debt, GDP, stock market, household income, unemployment rate, and real house prices.  The overall score of each president’s second term decreases by an average of 4.2 percentage points from their first term score.

Don’t write off Obama’s second term yet, though.  Franklin Roosevelt’s highly successful New Deal policies in his first term led to a substantially lower relative second term, and three of the eleven two-term presidents (including most recent Democratic president Bill Clinton) had higher economic performances in their second terms.

Presidential Race Polling Very Close

With the election looming just two weeks away, and the final debate between President Barack Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney in the books, the focus turns to polls.  The race has tightened in recent weeks, especially in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The President carried all these states in his win over Senator John McCain in the 2008 election, though polls indicate the 2012 election will be much closer, particularly in the previously mentioned battleground states.  While the President maintained an early advantage in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, recent polls in these states place the two candidates in a near deadlocked battle.  Mitt Romney has retained a slight lead in Florida, arguably the most important battleground state, over the past month.

The Economist has compiled an election season map, with polling details for each state.  Based on the most recent polling results President Obama possesses 253 likely Electoral College votes (17 shy of the 270 necessary for victory) to Mitt Romney's 191. However, there are still 94 votes from battleground states that are up in the air.  Should Mitt Romney hold onto his lead in Florida, he would receive 29 votes - the third most for any state.  This would leave him 50 votes shy of victory with 65 votes still on the table.  While Florida represents the most votes for any battleground state, Ohio may yet be the most important.  If the President takes Ohio along with the other 253 likely Obama votes, he surpasses the 270 vote mark with a single vote to spare.  A recent Quinnipiac Poll gives the President a five-point lead in Ohio, and he's led the state in most polls throughout the past two months.  

Two-Thirds of Americans Hold Favorable View of President Clinton

President Bill Clinton’s approval rating has reached its highest point yet.  According to Gallup, 66% of Americans hold a favorable view of the ex-President, twenty points higher than President Obama’s approval rating.  And while President Clinton enjoys widespread favorability among his Democratic base - with 90% of Democrats holding a favorable opinion of Clinton - the historically moderate Democrat also won over many Republicans: 44% view President Clinton favorably.

Supreme Court Decision on the Affordable Care Act Projected to Save Federal Government $84 Billion

In an articlefor the New York Times, author Robert Pear dissected the Congressional Budget Office’s revised estimates on the effects of the Affordable Care Act after the landmark Supreme Court decision to uphold the law.  A key portion of the decision alters the legislation to permit States to opt out of the proposed Medicaid expansion.  The CBO predicts that an additional 3 million people will now go without health insurance due to this new aspect of the law, but the agency also expects the federal government should save approximately $84 billion over the next 11 years.  The Affordable Care Act is still projected to provide coverage to 30 million of the 60 million presently uninsured Americans at a price tag of $1.7 trillion over the course of 11 years.  The bulk of the cost emerges after 2014, when many provisions of the Affordable Care Act will take effect.  

President Obama and Mitt Romney Locked in a Tight Battle For America's Next President

With the 2012 presidential election only months away, Gallup’s Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney pits the two candidates in a tight race – so tight, in fact, that the two are in a statistical tie.  Registered voters were asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today.  If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?”  Undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned towards, and their responses were incorporated into the results.  If the election were held today, Gallup's results (with the margin of error falling at ±3%) indicate that the result is too close to call.

President Obama and Mitt Romney in Statistical Tie With 5 Months and Counting to Election Day

Gallup's Election 2012 poll has President Obama and Mitt Romney in a dead heat.  The President maintains only a one percentage point advantage with 46% of the vote to Romney's 45%.  However, the two are in a virtual tie, as the momentum has not quite shifted one way or the other over the past two months.  In fact, only rarely has the difference between the President Obama and Romney exceeded the margin of error.  Gallup also tracks the President's job approval rating at 47%.

In Response to Gay Marriage Support, 1 in 4 Americans View the President Less Favorably

Following President Obama’s endorsement of legalized gay marriage, the Pew Research Center released a survey on how the announcement has affected Americans’ opinions of the President.  Overall, 52% say their opinion has not changed, 25% say they now view the President less favorably, and 19% say they view the President more favorably.  Many in the media suspected the African American community’s support of President Obama would decrease; however, the survey shows that 68% of African Americans were unaffected by the announcement, 16% view the President more favorably, and 13% view the President less favorably.  Among young adults ages 18-29, and adults aged 30-49, 22% view the President more favorably.  These two age groups were the most likely age groups to view the President more favorably with the announcement.  Among seniors aged 65 and over, 42% now view the President less favorably.