Can Obama's second term outperform his first?

On President Obama’s inauguration day for his second term, the Economist explores the economic performance of two-term presidents since the start of the 20^th century.  A range of sources measured performance according to industrial production, federal debt, GDP, stock market, household income, unemployment rate, and real house prices.  The overall score of each president’s second term decreases by an average of 4.2 percentage points from their first term score.

Don’t write off Obama’s second term yet, though.  Franklin Roosevelt’s highly successful New Deal policies in his first term led to a substantially lower relative second term, and three of the eleven two-term presidents (including most recent Democratic president Bill Clinton) had higher economic performances in their second terms.

U.S. Naturalization

The Economist's recent Daily Chart depicts the number of naturalizations that occurred over the past decade in a handful of countries.  The graph also displays the proportion of each country's population that is foreign born.


The nations that naturalized the most citizens were the United States, Russia, and Canada. With a figure of 6.6 million, the United States naturalized the most citizens from 2001-2010. Russia comes in second, with about half as many naturalizations at 3.1 million people, while Canada follows with just under 2 million naturalized citizens in just as many years. Other countries with more than a million naturalized immigrants are Britain, France, and Germany.

However, the countries that naturalized the most immigrants are not necessarily the ones whose populations have the greatest proportion of foreign born people.  For example, while the United States conferred citizenship on 6.6 million individuals in the past decade, immigrants only account for 13% of its total population.  On the other hand, Australia and Switzerland naturalized 1 million and about 0.4 million people, but both their foreign born populations constitute 27% of the total population, the most of any countries depicted in the graphic.  Countries with other high proportions of foreign born people are New Zealand (23%), Canada (20%), Spain (15%), and Sweden (15%).

Child Mortality Rate Plunging Throughout Africa

The Economist’s daily chart from May 19^th highlighted child mortality rates among 20 nations in Africa.  According to Gabriel Demombynes and Karina Trommlerova of the World Bank, since 2005, 16 of 20 African countries on which detailed living condition surveys have been conducted experienced a drop in child-mortality rates.  Of the 20 nations, only Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Nambia, and Liberia endured an increase in the child-mortality rate.  12 nations had a decrease of at least 4.4% a year, and Senegal and Rwanda boasted a drop of nearly 10% a year.  In fact, the plunge in child mortality is actually speeding up.  Throughout most African nations, the rate is decreasing twice as fast compared to the early 2000s and 1990s.  

South Korea to Surpass Japan's GDP per Person

Although Japan was once the foremost nation in terms of economic growth, the Economist's daily chart suggests that this trend is changing. Countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, who used to trail behind Japan in regards to GDP per person, are now quickly outpacing Japan. Even more remarkable, South Korea is expected to achieve a higher GDP per person measured at purchasing-power than Japan within five years. Singapore outpaced Japan in this category in 1993 and Taiwan passed Japan in 2010. However, the case of South Korea will be extraordinary, give that 32 years ago South Korea’s GDP per person was roughly a fourth of Japan’s.

Corruption Costs Illinois $500 Million a Year

The Economist recently highlighted a report published by the University of Illinois at Chicago in which corruption amongst American states is more closely examined.  The Economist’s daily chart displays the number of public corruption convictions from 1976 to 2010.  This analysis of public corruption comes just days after Rod Blagojevich began his 14-year prison sentence on March 15^th. The former governor of Illinois was impeached and removed from office for attempting to sell Barack Obama’s vacated Senate seat (amongst other charges) in early 2009.  The corruption report displays convictions per 10,000 population.  Louisiana leads all states with a rate of 2 appointees and government employees convicted per 10,000 of the state’s total population, followed by Illinois at 1.4, New York at 1.3, and Pennsylvania at just over 1.2 convictions per 10,000.  New York had the most convictions, at 2,522, followed closely by California with 2,345.  The District of Columbia has convicted public officials due to corruption at a rate of 16.7 per 10,000 of the population since 1976, but this figure is exaggerated due to the fact that the Jusitice Department and other federal agencies often try corruption cases regardless of where the crimes were committed.  The report also estimates that corruption costs Illinois $500 million a year, which is just over 2% of the state’s FY2013 budget, and more than the $425 million in spending cuts enacted by Governor Pat Quinn for the coming year.

World's Nuclear Power Producers

The Economist’s Graphic Detail blog post earlier this week highlighted their nuclear energy interactive guide, which shows the nuclear electricity production, number of operational reactors, and the metric tons of uranium required for nuclear production of 30 countries currently using nuclear power.  According to the map, the US produces by far the largest amount of nuclear power at about 800 terawatt hours (TWh), with France following at a little over 400 TWh and Japan at 280 TWh. (It is important to note that this data was produced before the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011, which has led to a shutdown of almost all of Japan's nuclear reactors.)

However, the map showing nuclear electricity as a percentage of total production shows the U.S. produces a relatively small proportion of their electricity through nuclear power (just under 20%).  France’s nuclear power makes up the largest percentage of their total electricity at 74.1%, followed by Slovakia at 51.8% and Belgium at 51.2%.    

The Growth of Russia's Middle Class

The Economist recently investigated the growth of Russia’s middle class in its March 2^nd daily chart.  The data inspected various characteristics of the Russian middle class throughout the first decade of the 21^st century.  The size of the middle class grew from 15% to 25% of the population, and GDP per person grew about $9,000 (growing approximately 133%).  Additionally, Internet users grew from less than 50 per 1000 persons to over 450 per 1000.  Lastly, the middle class has engaged in more tourism, with tourist travel abroad more than doubling.  Of future interest will be the potential growth of the middle class throughout the current decade and how the new leadership (elections take place this coming Sunday) may affect this data.

Years Lost to the Financial Crisis

In the daily chart for February 23^rd, The Economist analyzed various economic indicators to determine how many years were lost to the financial crisis of 2008.  The data covers economic output, wealth, and labor markets.  With these figures, The Economist calculates, in economic terms, what year each country is in.  For instance, the United States’ GDP per person was higher in 2005 than it is today, its main stock market index is lower today than in 1999, and based on all the indicators, the nation has traveled back in time roughly ten years.  The worst performing country of all those considered was Greece; based on the indicators, the country would just be reaching the new millennium.  Of course, as lawmakers in Greece fight to alleviate the effects of the debt crisis, reaching the millennium in economic terms may still be quite a struggle.  Germany has weathered the storm best of all the countries evaluated; the financial crisis has set the country back to approximately 2009. 

Facebook Files for I.P.O.

On February 1, Facebook filed for an I.P.O. (Initial Public Offering), taking the first measure towards becoming a publicly traded company.  Facebook is aiming to raise $5 billion from its I.P.O., which, according to The Economist, would give it market capitalization (total value of tradable shares) similar to that of McDonald's.  Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook's founder and CEO, owns 28% of the company, which will be worth approximately $28 billion.  Facebook's high value is due in large part to its ability to target individuals with advertisements which pertain to their particular interests.

For First Time, China's Urban Residents Outnumber Rural

The Economist's daily chart focuses on the movement of China's people into urban areas. At the end of 2011, and according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 1.35 billion, or 51.3 percent of China's residents lived in cities, meaning that for the first time the country's "city-dwellers now outnumber its rural residents." According to The Economist, as recently as "1980 less than a fifth of China’s population lived in cities, a smaller proportion than in India."

In the ten years that followed, the Chinese government "remained wary of free movement, even as it made its peace with free enterprise." It "sought industrialisation without urbanisation," only to ultimately realize that "it could not have one without the other." And although the percentage of city-dwellers is on the rise, it seems that the Chinese government's wariness toward urban development has slowed the movement of its citizens to cities. The Economist notes, "Even now, its ratio of city-dwellers is, if anything, low for an economy at its stage of development."