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A State of Trance 600 - Mumbai

A State of Trance 600 - Mumbai
Royal Western India Turf Club
Mumbai, India
March 16, 2013
(Not Broadcasted)

Wealthy Countries Continue to Struggle with High External Debt to GDP Ratio's

According to the World Bank, it appears that while some developing countries managed to balance their checkbooks despite the worldwide economic downturn, the struggle continues for wealthier countries to decrease their debt. In the United States, our external debt to GDP ratio has increased from 84.1% in 2006, to 100.2% in 2012. In comparison, Portugal's external debt to GDP ratio is the highest among all the countries measured. From 2006 to 2012, their debt ratio increased from 189.0% to 228.9%. Greece has the second highest ratio but endured the largest increase in the debt ratio. In 2006, the World Bank estimated that their debt ratio stood at 125.8%. By 2012, it exploded by more than 80% to 206.4%. France has the third highest debt ratio, 190.8%, followed by Germany at 170.4%, Spain at 169.7%, Italy at 118.9%, and then the United States at 100.2%.

Interestingly, despite the struggles of developed countries to stabilize their debt, developing countries continue to enjoy low levels of external debt to GDP ratios. China's ratio stood at 9.5%, followed by 17.2% for Brazil, 18% for India, 27% for Mexico, 29.3% for Russia, and 41.3% for Turkey.

More Chinese Women in Labor Force than Indian Women

Recent findings released by Gallupindicate that China’s female labor force participation rate (70%) is significantly greater than India’s (25%). Not only are Indian women less likely to be present in their country’s labor force than Chinese women, women in India’s labor force are three times more likely to be unemployed (with an unemployment rate of 15%) than their Chinese counterparts (with an unemployment rate of 5%). Furthermore, women in China are nearly twice as likely to be employed full-time than women in India (21% verses 11%). In addition, 53% of highly educated Chinese women reportedly hold a “good job” whereas only 17% of Indian women who received tertiary education maintain a “good job”. There are also significant discrepancies in the literacy rates of Chinese females (91%) and the Indian females (50%). In sum, Chinese women are much more likely to receive even a basic education than Indian women, and, among Chinese and Indian women who receive higher education, Chinese women are much more likely to find full-time employment. While the Chinese economy (with a 9% growth rate) is currently out-performing India’s economy, (with a 6.8% growth rate) China’s growth is expected to stall due to low fertility rates and an aging population. On the other hand, India’s population of working-aged citizens is expected to steadily increase until about 2030 and this can lead to major economic growth if India encourages greater female labor force participation.

Asian Americans and Identity

Data from the Pew Research Center demonstrate how different Asian American groups identify themselves. Overall, 62% of all Asian Americans usually describe themselves by articulating their country of origin. 19% refer to themselves as Asians or Asian Americans, and 14% identify simply as Americans.

Between Asian groups, however, there is some variation in the ways individuals identify. About three quarters of both the Vietnamese and Korean populations identify with their country of origin. Indian, Chinese, and Japanese Americans exhibit the smallest percentage of individuals who identify with their country of origin (six in ten).

Another way to look at the data is by distinguishing the foreign born population of Asian Americans from the native born population of Asian Americans. Among the foreign born, seven in ten identify with their country of origin, while only four in ten in the native born population will do the same. Conversely, a mere 9% of foreign born Asians describe themselves as American, but 28% of the native born call themselves as American.

For First Time, China's Urban Residents Outnumber Rural

The Economist's daily chart focuses on the movement of China's people into urban areas. At the end of 2011, and according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, 1.35 billion, or 51.3 percent of China's residents lived in cities, meaning that for the first time the country's "city-dwellers now outnumber its rural residents." According to The Economist, as recently as "1980 less than a fifth of China’s population lived in cities, a smaller proportion than in India."

In the ten years that followed, the Chinese government "remained wary of free movement, even as it made its peace with free enterprise." It "sought industrialisation without urbanisation," only to ultimately realize that "it could not have one without the other." And although the percentage of city-dwellers is on the rise, it seems that the Chinese government's wariness toward urban development has slowed the movement of its citizens to cities. The Economist notes, "Even now, its ratio of city-dwellers is, if anything, low for an economy at its stage of development."

Excess Female Deaths

A recent article in The Economist discusses what the article refers to as the "missing women" of the world, which it defines as "women who have died because the rate of female mortality is disproportionately high compared with men's." This includes sex-selective abortion, which accounts for the largest share of "missing women" or "excess female deaths," as a related Daily Chart blog refers to them as. According to the chart (below) from the blog, which is based on results from the 2011 World Development Report, sex-selective abortion resulted in 1 million excess female deaths in China and 257,000 in India in 2011. This has already resulted in distorted gender ratios in China, with roughly 105 boys for every 100 girls born. While sex-selective abortion accounts for the largest portion of excess female deaths, the largest growth in these deaths has been in Africa among women between the ages of 15 and 49. According to the chart, there were 751,000 excess female deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2011.

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Indians Narrowly Prioritize Environment Over Economy

With an eye on World Environment Day, which happened this past Sunday, Gallup found that more Indians (45%) prioritize environmental protection over economic growth (35%).

As might be expected, poorer Indian residents are more likely than other groups to emphasize the economy over environmental protection. 39% of those who say they are "finding it very difficult to get by" prioritize the economy, as opposed to only 29% who choose the environment. But while the two groups in the middle--those who say they are "getting by on current household income" and those "finding it difficult to get by"--largely prioritize the environment first, the group living most comfortably is split. Although they don't lean toward the economy like the poorest Indians, those who say they are "living comfortably on present household income" are evenly split between the economy and the environment, with 45% choosing each, and the remainder choosing 'neither' or 'don't know'.

More Indians (45%) say they are satisfied "with efforts to preserve the environment" than dissatisfied (38%). The poorest citizens are the most likely to say they are dissatisfied, at 45%, but also the most likely to say they 'don't know' or refuse an answer.

According to Gallup, India's environment is being pressured by a "burgeoning population, annual economic growth in the 8% to 9% range, and rising energy demands." But "India has been fighting land degradation and desertification and investing in green technology, including one of the world's largest green energy projects that will generate thousands of megawatts of solar and wind power."

The poll results suggest that a green movement has the potential to gain steam in India, especially when Indian residents' preferences for the environment are compared with recent American preferences for the economy.

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