The Economist recently published an article covering climate change policy to mark the beginning of the Doha Climate Change Conference. According to current projections, the outlook appears quite bleak. Although the world needed to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, they have actually increased by 20% just in the past 10 years. This is a major cause for concern, since the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that by 2020, greenhouse gas emissions must be 11% lower than they are now to guarantee that temperatures do not increase by 2 degrees Celsius. Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at this same pace, by 2020 the world will emit 58 gigatonnes of carbon equivalent (GtCO2e), significantly more than the maximum level of 44 GtCO2e required to prevent temperatures from rising above 2 degrees Celsius. As the Economist explains, if countries planned on making major cuts down the line, then we could potentially avoid this catastrophic temperature increase. However, given the political climate and current policies laid out, this appears unlikely. Even if countries adopted the strictest, conditional pledges, countries wouldn’t even come close to the GtCO2e goal needed to prevent temperatures from rising above 2 degrees Celsius. A Bleak Climate Change Forecast
The Economist recently published an article covering climate change policy to mark the beginning of the Doha Climate Change Conference. According to current projections, the outlook appears quite bleak. Although the world needed to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, they have actually increased by 20% just in the past 10 years. This is a major cause for concern, since the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates that by 2020, greenhouse gas emissions must be 11% lower than they are now to guarantee that temperatures do not increase by 2 degrees Celsius. Assuming that greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at this same pace, by 2020 the world will emit 58 gigatonnes of carbon equivalent (GtCO2e), significantly more than the maximum level of 44 GtCO2e required to prevent temperatures from rising above 2 degrees Celsius. As the Economist explains, if countries planned on making major cuts down the line, then we could potentially avoid this catastrophic temperature increase. However, given the political climate and current policies laid out, this appears unlikely. Even if countries adopted the strictest, conditional pledges, countries wouldn’t even come close to the GtCO2e goal needed to prevent temperatures from rising above 2 degrees Celsius. 
Partisan Divide at 25-Year High
The Pew Research Center recently released a report on the growing partisan polarization in America. Pew surveyed respondents for the past 25 years on 48 different political values measures. Over the 48 questions, the average percentage-point difference between Republicans and Democrats was 18%, up from 10% a quarter-century ago. Additionally, whereas other divides based on race, education, and income have remained stable, party differences have surged. The issues that have contributed most to this increasing polarization are the social safety net, the environment, labor unions, equal opportunity, the scope and size of the government, and immigration. The environment and the size of the government in particular have experienced the greatest shift in polarization; the percentage-point difference regarding the environment and size of government is 34% and 27% higher respectively than 25 years ago. Perhaps this disparity is linked to another of Pew’s discoveries examining partisan identification. When asked how they identify themselves, 68% of Republicans believed they were conservative, up from 60% in 2000. Additionally, 38% of Democrats felt they were liberal, up from 28% in 2000.
Americans Continue to Prioritize Economy Over Environmental Protection
Gallup released a survey in which Americans answered whether they felt the protection of the environment or the growth of the economy should be given a higher priority. Since 2009, Americans have placed a higher priority on economic growth. Though that gap was at its highest with an 18 percent difference in early 2011, Americans still favor economic growth over environmental protection by a 49% to 41% margin. Until the recession hit in 2007, most Americans prioritized environmental protection, but as the economy weakened, the difference shrunk. Beginning in 2009, more Americans favored improving the economy before protecting the environment. This trend is remarkably new. Before the recession, Americans clearly prioritized the environment over economic growth; in 1991, the difference was 51% in favor of the environment. That gap narrowed during the new millennium. The BP oil spill in 2010 raised more concerns about the environment, but this trend was short-lived. Among the political parties, 66% of those who are registered Republicans will prioritize economic development compared to just 27% favoring environmental protection. On the other hand, 50% of Democrats still prioritize the environment over economic growth.
Indians Narrowly Prioritize Environment Over Economy
With an eye on World Environment Day, which happened this past Sunday, Gallup found that more Indians (45%) prioritize environmental protection over economic growth (35%).
As might be expected, poorer Indian residents are more likely than other groups to emphasize the economy over environmental protection. 39% of those who say they are "finding it very difficult to get by" prioritize the economy, as opposed to only 29% who choose the environment. But while the two groups in the middle--those who say they are "getting by on current household income" and those "finding it difficult to get by"--largely prioritize the environment first, the group living most comfortably is split. Although they don't lean toward the economy like the poorest Indians, those who say they are "living comfortably on present household income" are evenly split between the economy and the environment, with 45% choosing each, and the remainder choosing 'neither' or 'don't know'.
More Indians (45%) say they are satisfied "with efforts to preserve the environment" than dissatisfied (38%). The poorest citizens are the most likely to say they are dissatisfied, at 45%, but also the most likely to say they 'don't know' or refuse an answer.
According to Gallup, India's environment is being pressured by a "burgeoning population, annual economic growth in the 8% to 9% range, and rising energy demands." But "India has been fighting land degradation and desertification and investing in green technology, including one of the world's largest green energy projects that will generate thousands of megawatts of solar and wind power."
The poll results suggest that a green movement has the potential to gain steam in India, especially when Indian residents' preferences for the environment are compared with recent American preferences for the economy.
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As might be expected, poorer Indian residents are more likely than other groups to emphasize the economy over environmental protection. 39% of those who say they are "finding it very difficult to get by" prioritize the economy, as opposed to only 29% who choose the environment. But while the two groups in the middle--those who say they are "getting by on current household income" and those "finding it difficult to get by"--largely prioritize the environment first, the group living most comfortably is split. Although they don't lean toward the economy like the poorest Indians, those who say they are "living comfortably on present household income" are evenly split between the economy and the environment, with 45% choosing each, and the remainder choosing 'neither' or 'don't know'.
More Indians (45%) say they are satisfied "with efforts to preserve the environment" than dissatisfied (38%). The poorest citizens are the most likely to say they are dissatisfied, at 45%, but also the most likely to say they 'don't know' or refuse an answer.
According to Gallup, India's environment is being pressured by a "burgeoning population, annual economic growth in the 8% to 9% range, and rising energy demands." But "India has been fighting land degradation and desertification and investing in green technology, including one of the world's largest green energy projects that will generate thousands of megawatts of solar and wind power."The poll results suggest that a green movement has the potential to gain steam in India, especially when Indian residents' preferences for the environment are compared with recent American preferences for the economy.
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