Strong Latino Vote for Obama

In an analysis of exit polls conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, Barack Obama carried 71% of the Latino vote in Tuesday’s election.  While Democratic candidates have long held an advantage with the Latino electorate, Obama had the second highest advantage with 44% more Latino votes than Mitt Romney.  Bill Clinton takes top billing with the highest advantage among Latinos in 1996 (51%), while the Democratic candidate with the lowest advantage was John Kerry in 2004 (18%).

In addition, the 2012 Presidential race shows more Hispanic support for Obama than 2008, up eight points since the 2008 election.  Also of note, the Hispanic electorate is growing (Latinos made up 8% of the population in 2008, 10% in 2012), making them a salient group of voters in the battleground states of Florida, Nevada and Colorado.  In each of these states, Latino voters comprised more of the voting population than in 2008, up one point in Colorado, two points in Arizona, and three points in Florida.

Other interesting trends within the Latino population show that Hispanic women favored Obama as compared to men (76% to 65%); younger Hispanics were more inclined than older Latinos to vote for Obama (18-29 at 74%, 65+ at 65%); Hispanics will no college degree voted Democrat more than college graduates (75% to 62%); those who made less than $50,000 a favored Democrats more than those who earned above $50,000 (82% to 59%).

Demographics and Leanings of Nonvoters

By choosing not to vote, nonvoters will influence the upcoming election, but with a great deal of media attention on just who is voting, Pew Research Center releases a survey describing those who choose not to come to the polls.

Back in 2008, nonvoters made up 43% of the population of those who could vote.  The current nonvoting population, which strongly favors Obama at 59%, strongly differs from the likely voting population which is split at 47% for both candidates.

Independents make up the largest proportion of nonvoters with 44%, whereas only 27% of likely voters have described themselves as independent.  More Democrats than Republicans are nonvoters, 29% and 17% respectively, while they are locked in a near tie among the likely voting population, 35% and 34% respectively.

In addition, Pew released another table describing gender, religion, and income here.  Key notes show that those with higher incomes are more likely to be voters than nonvoters, that men are more likely than women to be considered as nonvoters, younger voters are more likely nonvoters, and that the category of nonvoters is more likely to be Hispanic.

Presidential Race Polling Very Close

With the election looming just two weeks away, and the final debate between President Barack Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney in the books, the focus turns to polls.  The race has tightened in recent weeks, especially in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The President carried all these states in his win over Senator John McCain in the 2008 election, though polls indicate the 2012 election will be much closer, particularly in the previously mentioned battleground states.  While the President maintained an early advantage in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, recent polls in these states place the two candidates in a near deadlocked battle.  Mitt Romney has retained a slight lead in Florida, arguably the most important battleground state, over the past month.

The Economist has compiled an election season map, with polling details for each state.  Based on the most recent polling results President Obama possesses 253 likely Electoral College votes (17 shy of the 270 necessary for victory) to Mitt Romney's 191. However, there are still 94 votes from battleground states that are up in the air.  Should Mitt Romney hold onto his lead in Florida, he would receive 29 votes - the third most for any state.  This would leave him 50 votes shy of victory with 65 votes still on the table.  While Florida represents the most votes for any battleground state, Ohio may yet be the most important.  If the President takes Ohio along with the other 253 likely Obama votes, he surpasses the 270 vote mark with a single vote to spare.  A recent Quinnipiac Poll gives the President a five-point lead in Ohio, and he's led the state in most polls throughout the past two months.  

Two-Thirds of Americans Hold Favorable View of President Clinton

President Bill Clinton’s approval rating has reached its highest point yet.  According to Gallup, 66% of Americans hold a favorable view of the ex-President, twenty points higher than President Obama’s approval rating.  And while President Clinton enjoys widespread favorability among his Democratic base - with 90% of Democrats holding a favorable opinion of Clinton - the historically moderate Democrat also won over many Republicans: 44% view President Clinton favorably.

President Obama and Mitt Romney in Statistical Tie With 5 Months and Counting to Election Day

Gallup's Election 2012 poll has President Obama and Mitt Romney in a dead heat.  The President maintains only a one percentage point advantage with 46% of the vote to Romney's 45%.  However, the two are in a virtual tie, as the momentum has not quite shifted one way or the other over the past two months.  In fact, only rarely has the difference between the President Obama and Romney exceeded the margin of error.  Gallup also tracks the President's job approval rating at 47%.

Partisan Divide at 25-Year High

The Pew Research Center recently released a report on the growing partisan polarization in America.  Pew surveyed respondents for the past 25 years on 48 different political values measures.  Over the 48 questions, the average percentage-point difference between Republicans and Democrats was 18%, up from 10% a quarter-century ago.  Additionally, whereas other divides based on race, education, and income have remained stable, party differences have surged.  The issues that have contributed most to this increasing polarization are the social safety net, the environment, labor unions, equal opportunity, the scope and size of the government, and immigration.  The environment and the size of the government in particular have experienced the greatest shift in polarization; the percentage-point difference regarding the environment and size of government is 34% and 27% higher respectively than 25 years ago.  Perhaps this disparity is linked to another of Pew’s discoveries examining partisan identification.  When asked how they identify themselves, 68% of Republicans believed they were conservative, up from 60% in 2000. Additionally, 38% of Democrats felt they were liberal, up from 28% in 2000.

Early Polls Show Romney's Lead in South Carolina Shrinking

Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight blog writes that the first South Carolina GOP primary poll contradicts his earlier prediction that Mitt Romney would increase "his modest lead in the South Carolina polls once his victory in New Hampshire was reflected in the surveys there." Instead, the poll, an automated survey from InsiderAdvantage, "shows Mr. Romney’s lead contracting in South Carolina," though Silver "urge[s] a lot of caution in interpreting it."

The poll "was conducted on Wednesday and shows Mr. Romney with 23 percent of the vote, just 2 points ahead of Newt Gingrich at 21 percent. The poll has Rick Santorum and Ron Paul tied for third place at 13 percent, with Jon M. Huntsman Jr. having moved ahead of Rick Perry for fifth place."

But Silver is not completely sold on InsiderAdvantage. He writes, "InsiderAdvantage has a mixed track record and rates fairly poorly in the FiveThrityEight pollster ratings, which is one reason to interpret these numbers with some care. In addition, Matt Towery, the head of InsiderAdvantage, formerly served as the head of Mr. Gingrich’s political organization from 1992 until Mr. Gingrich left Congress."

Silver does note, however, that "another polling firm that rates more highly, Public Policy Polling, said in a series of Twitter messages that it has also detected a tight race between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich in South Carolina, with little evidence of favorable momentum for Mr. Romney following his New Hampshire victory."

Negative early news for Romney in South Carolina is partially offset by early polling in Florida, however. Silver writes: "Confusing matters further is that a poll of Florida, from Rasmussen Reports, did show some gains for Mr. Romney. The poll, conducted on Wednesday, showed Mr. Romney with 41 percent of the vote there, better than he has done in any prior survey of the state. The poll also showed Mr. Gingrich’s numbers on the decline." Silver predicts that "if the initial results from South Carolina and Florida are confirmed by other pollsters, they would suggest that Florida could play a backstop role for Mr. Romney, in somewhat the same way that New Hampshire did for him relative to Iowa."

However, at this stage Silver suggests that we wait before attaching much weight to the early poll results from either South Carolina or Florida. 

Gingrich Joins Romney at Top of GOP Race

Gallup reported on recent polling data that shows Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich as the top choices among Republicans for their party's 2012 presidential nominee. 20% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide say Romney is their top choice, while 19% say they would most likely support Gingrich; Herman Cain comes in at third with 16%. Among Republicans and Republican-leaners who are currently registered voters, however, Gingrich jumps into first place with 22%, followed closely by Romney (21%) and Cain (16%).

The USA Today/Gallup poll was conducted Nov. 13-17, close to two weeks after a similar Nov. 3-6 poll. In that short time, Gingrich's support has increased from 12% to its current figure of 19% among Republicans nationwide. During this same time, Cain appears to have lost support--perhaps the result of recent allegations of sexual harassment levied against him. While 21% of Republicans supported him in the Nov. 3-6 poll, a smaller 16% favor him today. Rick Perry also continued to slip, from 11% in the last poll to 8% in this most recent one.

While most candidates appear to receive roughly equal support from conservative and moderate/liberal Republicans and Republican-leaners, Gingrich and Cain seem to hang their hat on the more conservative wing of Republican voters. Conservative Republicans and Republican-leaders are most likely to favor Gingrich (23%), followed by Romney (20%) and Cain (18%). But among moderate/liberal Republicans and Republican-leaners, Romney leads the race, checking in with 20% of the votes, while Gingrich and Cain each only garner 12% of the group's vote. According to Gallup, however, "conservatives outnumber moderates and liberals by better than 2-to-1 in the Republican rank-and-file." Gallup writes: "Gingrich and Cain appear to have benefited most from the decline in Perry's support."

Age appears to be a fairly large determinant of respondents' preferences. The GOP race would be a two-man battle between Gingrich (34%) and Romney (28%) if it were up to voters over 65 years of age. In fact, "Gingrich's support is heavily concentrated among Republicans who are at least 50." Part of this, Gallup surmises, may be due to the fact that Gingrich "has been out of public office for more than a decade, and [is] thus a less familiar figure to younger Republicans." Cain and Ron Paul, on the other hand, get most of their support from younger respondents. This would appear to favor Gingrich and Romney, as older Americans are typically more likely to head to the polls than younger Americans.

Gallup concludes: "With the first official nominating contest, the Iowa caucuses, now just six weeks away, there is no clear national front-runner for the Republican nomination...the current contest stands to be the most competitive and perhaps most unpredictable for the Republican nomination since 1972, when the parties shifted the power to choose their presidential nominees away from party leaders at the national convention to the rank-and-file voters in state primaries and caucuses."

Down Huckabee, Race for GOP Presidential Nomination Without a Clear Leader

According to Gallup, following Mike Huckabee's decision to withdraw his name from consideration, the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination lacks a clear leader. A March-April 2011 trial heat ballot among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, adjusting for the withdrawals of Huckabee and Donald Trump, suggests the lead is shared by three politicians: Mitt Romney (20%), Sarah Palin (18%), and Newt Gingrich (11%).
But current voter preferences are based more in recognition than anything else. Those three politicians also lead potential GOP candidates in name recognition among the polled population, with 96% recognizing Palin; 84% Gingrich; and 83% of those polled recognizing Romney. Writes Gallup: "The most well-known candidates lead in nomination support at this point, while those who are not as well-known lag behind."

Evidence for this view--that recent, post-Huckabee trial ballot results can be attributed primarily to candidate recognition and not real, strongly rooted voter preference--was found not only in the three most well-known candidates leading the results, but also from the relatively low level of excitement voters expressed for those three candidates. Positive Intensity scores, meant to measure the intensity of a voter's support for his/her candidate, showed that voters are less excited about these three potential candidates than they had been about Huckabee. While Palin scored only 16, Romney 14, and Gingrich 13, Huckabee's final Positive Intensity score for May 2-15 polling reached 25. The Positive Intensity score is calculated by taking the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate and subtracting from that the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the candidate.Among those candidates who registered lower name recognition, Herman Cain (29% recognition) and Michele Bachmann (21%) received the highest Positive Intensity scores with 24 and 21, respectively. For those two and others "in the Republican field beyond Palin, Gingrich, and Romney," the greatest challenge "right now is increasing their name recognition." For Palin, Gingrich and Romney, the goal must be to increase their Positive Intensity scores among voters, assuming all three participate--or remain--in the race.According to Gallup, only one thing is clear following Huckabee's departure: "There is no clear front-runner in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination."

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