Most Americans Favor Quick Removal of U.S.Troops from Afghanistan

A recent public opinion poll suggests that Americans are increasingly pessimistic about developments in the Middle East.  This report released by Pew Research Center found that the majority of Americans (60%) believe that U.S. troops should leave Afghanistan as quickly as possible.  This number has significantly increased since May 2011, when only 48% of Americans supported quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  According to the survey issued October 4-7, 2012, 73% of Democrats support quick troop pullout from Afghanistan.  The majority of Independents (58%) similarly support a quick troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.  However, Republicans remain divided, as 48% believe that U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan until the country is stabilized. Overall, only 35% of Americans believe that U.S. troops should stay in Afghanistan until the country has stabilized.  The presidential candidates will likely respond to American’s growing pessimism about U.S. involvement in Afghanistan as they debate foreign policy tonight in the final presidential debate. 

Record-High Percentage of American Independents

Gallup’s party identification poll found that the percentage of American identifying as independents hit a record high in 2011.  Gallup cites "the sluggish economy, record levels of distrust in government, and unfavorable views of both parties" as causes for this record.  These results, however, closely mirror recent results in the year directly preceding a presidential election year.  Spikes in independent political affiliation also occurred in 1995, 1999, 2003, and 2007.

As in most years since 1988, Democrats outnumber Republicans, 31% to 27%.  When measuring party identification including independent leanings, however, those identifying as Republican or leaning Republican constituted 45% of respondents, equaling the 45% responding as Democrat or leaning Democratic.  Though Democrats and Democratic leaners led by one percent in 2010, this gap is significantly smaller than Gallup’s poll results since 2004.  Says Gallup: "If national conditions and the political environment do not change appreciably…independent identification – even if it declines – will probably remain on the higher end of what Gallup has measured historically."

Obama Starts New Year with 46% Job Approval

Gallup polling in early January finds that President Obama's job approval rating is at 46 percent, an improvement over most data since August 2011, when his approval typically scored in the low 40 percent range. Obama recorded "monthly approval averages of 41% in August, September, and October, and 43% in November and December." According to Gallup's Jeffrey M. Jones, "The current 46% rating for Obama, based on Jan. 2-4 polling, is one percentage point below his recent high three-day averages of 47% in Dec. 29-Jan. 3 and Dec. 21-23 tracking." The rating is still lower than last January, however, when Obama averaged 49 percent approval over the month.

Jones writes, "Obama's approval rating will be a critical indicator of his re-election chances this year. If he can sustain higher approval ratings through early November, his odds of winning a second term will increase." Historical data has shown "that all presidents since Eisenhower with approval ratings above 50% have won re-election easily." More recently, "George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004 with 48% approval at the time of the election." But Obama would not have to fall very far for Jones to anticipate trouble: "If Obama's approval rating reverts to the low 40% range, he would have a difficult time defeating a Republican in a two-candidate race."

Jones identifies independents as a key group Obama must target if he hopes to increase his approval rating. "Currently, 81% of Democrats, 42% of independents, and 10% of Republicans approve of Obama. By comparison, last January, when he had an overall monthly average of 49%, Obama's approval rating was 83% among Democrats, 47% among independents, and 13% among Republicans."

One potential reason for the modest uptick in Obama's rating this month "could be the improvement in Americans' economic confidence in recent days." But Jones says " it is unclear whether that will last." Further, "January brings challenges for Obama to maintain higher approval ratings, given that much of the political focus will be on the Republican nomination contest, with the GOP candidates seeking to point out Obama's shortcomings as president in order to help their chances of winning the nomination."

Obama does, however, have the State of the Union address January 24, which according to Jones presents "a unique opportunity for him to directly state his case for re-election to Americans."

Down Huckabee, Race for GOP Presidential Nomination Without a Clear Leader

According to Gallup, following Mike Huckabee's decision to withdraw his name from consideration, the race for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination lacks a clear leader. A March-April 2011 trial heat ballot among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, adjusting for the withdrawals of Huckabee and Donald Trump, suggests the lead is shared by three politicians: Mitt Romney (20%), Sarah Palin (18%), and Newt Gingrich (11%).
But current voter preferences are based more in recognition than anything else. Those three politicians also lead potential GOP candidates in name recognition among the polled population, with 96% recognizing Palin; 84% Gingrich; and 83% of those polled recognizing Romney. Writes Gallup: "The most well-known candidates lead in nomination support at this point, while those who are not as well-known lag behind."

Evidence for this view--that recent, post-Huckabee trial ballot results can be attributed primarily to candidate recognition and not real, strongly rooted voter preference--was found not only in the three most well-known candidates leading the results, but also from the relatively low level of excitement voters expressed for those three candidates. Positive Intensity scores, meant to measure the intensity of a voter's support for his/her candidate, showed that voters are less excited about these three potential candidates than they had been about Huckabee. While Palin scored only 16, Romney 14, and Gingrich 13, Huckabee's final Positive Intensity score for May 2-15 polling reached 25. The Positive Intensity score is calculated by taking the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly favorable opinion of a candidate and subtracting from that the percentage of voters who recognize and have a strongly unfavorable opinion of the candidate.Among those candidates who registered lower name recognition, Herman Cain (29% recognition) and Michele Bachmann (21%) received the highest Positive Intensity scores with 24 and 21, respectively. For those two and others "in the Republican field beyond Palin, Gingrich, and Romney," the greatest challenge "right now is increasing their name recognition." For Palin, Gingrich and Romney, the goal must be to increase their Positive Intensity scores among voters, assuming all three participate--or remain--in the race.According to Gallup, only one thing is clear following Huckabee's departure: "There is no clear front-runner in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination."

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Following Death of Bin Laden, Obama's Approval Rating Up

A recent Gallup poll shows that a higher percentage of Americans approve of President Obama's job performance following the death of Osama Bin Laden. In the three days leading up to the military operation that led to Bin Laden's death, 46% of Americans approved of President Obama's performance. That figure jumped six percentage points in the three days since the announcement of Bin Laden's death, averaging 52% during that span.

According to Gallup, "the six-percentage-point increase in Obama's approval rating is fairly typical for a rally event," a term that refers to major international events that boost presidential approval. The increase in popular support came exclusively from Republicans and Independents, with 12% more Republicans and 9% more Independents voicing their approval.

If President Bush's experience following the September 11 attacks is any guide, however, President Obama's approval rating will likely fall back to its pre-rally event levels in the coming months.

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