Congressional Approval Rate Falls to 17%

According to June 9-12 polling by Gallup, Congress' approval rate has dropped seven points since May, to 17%. A rate of 17% is closer to poll results in March and April, when it was at 18% and 17%, respectively, and it continues--as it has since January 2010--to register below 25%. Although the survey was conducted during the Anthony Weiner scandal, Gallup proposes that the decline "more likely reflects the end of the rally in support for the government after the death of Osama bin Laden."

Gallup has been measuring American approval of Congress since 1974; in that time, the smallest percentage of Americans who approved of Congress' job performance was recorded this past December, when the approval rate fell to 13%. Since 1974, the congressional approval rate has only fallen below 17% three times, all in the past three years and a signal, according to Gallup, of "the recent negative turn in Americans' views of Congress."At 25%, Democrats are more likely to approve of Congress than Republicans (14%) or independents (13%), but approval rates are low among all three groups. Writes Gallup: "Unless conditions in the United States improve and Americans become more charitable in their ratings of Congress, the 2012 elections may result in another shake-up in Congress' membership, although with divided control of the legislative branch, it is not clear which party would be hurt more."

NH cf

Gallup: bin Laden Raid Increases Unpopularity of U.S. in Pakistan

Gallup polling of Pakistanis, conducted May 9-12, shows that the bin Laden raid has added to already largely negative views of the United States. Among Pakistanis who said they were aware of the U.S. raid, 64% claimed the action made them have a more negative view of the U.S., as compared with only 5% who said it made them have a more positive view.

Since Gallup began polling in Pakistan, views of U.S. leadership have never been positive, and although the 10% who approved of U.S. leadership was down from 18% in 2010, the change was not significantly different from polling results in 2008 and 2009. But disapproval of U.S. leadership has soared to 85%, a record and far higher than the 68% who said they disapproved in 2010--or the 60% who said so in 2008 and 2009.
The general disapproval among Pakistanis regarding U.S. leadership is clear from Pakistanis' expectations for future U.S. decisions: few believe that the U.S. will take what they believe to be the correct action--in this case, withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan. A large majority of those (79%) aware of the U.S. action to kill bin Laden believes the U.S. should withdraw its troops from Afghanistan now that bin Laden is dead, but only 57% think the U.S. actually will withdraw its forces. As a comparison, 36% of Americans believe that there is still important work to be done in Afghanistan and U.S. troops should be maintained there.Clearly, the poll suggests that diplomatic relations between the United States and Pakistan will not be easy moving forward. Gallup writes that the polling data "reinforce[s] the significant diplomatic challenges that lie ahead for both countries."

NH cf

Coverage of bin Laden Story Outpaced Interest

According to an article published by the Pew Research Center, the "near-record amount of news coverage" concerning bin Laden's death far outpaced interest in the story. The Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) found that 69% of news coverage from May 2-8 concerned the raid in Abbottabad, Pakistan, even reaching 90% of all news on cable television. But a May 5-8 poll conducted by Pew showed that only 42% of people polled said they followed bin Laden's death more closely than any other news story that week.

In fact, 20% of those polled said they followed news about severe weather and flooding in the South and Midwest most closely during the same week. And the 42% who said they followed bin Laden's death most closely did not come near the 57% who said in mid-March that they followed the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster most closely.
Many people recognized the discrepancy between interest and news coverage, as 43% of those polled said the bin Laden story received too much rather than too little coverage, as opposed to only 9% who said the opposite. An additional 42% said the amount of coverage was just right.

Concerning the actual bin Laden coverage, 57% said that its most interesting aspect was the chance of a retaliatory terrorist attack on the United States. 74% of the public received its news from a television, and this tendency was especially pronounced for people over 65 years of age, 87% of whom said they received their news from a television.

NH cf

Obama's Higher Approval Rating Not Translating into Improved 2012 Prospects

As has already been mentioned on this blog, polling three days after the death of Osama Bin Laden revealed a six-percent increase in President Obama's approval rating. But according to a recent Gallup article, increased approval of President Obama's job performance has not improved the President's chances at re-election in 2012. Among registered voters, 43% said they were more likely to vote for President Obama over an unnamed Republican, while 40% said they were more likely to choose the Republican over Obama. These results are essentially unchanged--the difference being statistically insignificant--from the 41% of registered voters who said in April that they were more likely to vote for Obama.Because Republicans--and to a lesser degree independents--provided most of the boost in Obama's approval rating following Bin Laden's death, more registered voters may approve more highly of Obama without lending him their support over a Republican in the 2012 election. According to Gallup, while Bin Laden's death improved many Republicans' views of the President, it "convinced few in this largely conservative voting bloc to switch sides in the 2012 general election."

NH cf

Following Death of Bin Laden, Obama's Approval Rating Up

A recent Gallup poll shows that a higher percentage of Americans approve of President Obama's job performance following the death of Osama Bin Laden. In the three days leading up to the military operation that led to Bin Laden's death, 46% of Americans approved of President Obama's performance. That figure jumped six percentage points in the three days since the announcement of Bin Laden's death, averaging 52% during that span.

According to Gallup, "the six-percentage-point increase in Obama's approval rating is fairly typical for a rally event," a term that refers to major international events that boost presidential approval. The increase in popular support came exclusively from Republicans and Independents, with 12% more Republicans and 9% more Independents voicing their approval.

If President Bush's experience following the September 11 attacks is any guide, however, President Obama's approval rating will likely fall back to its pre-rally event levels in the coming months.

NH cf