Colorado's Recall Election on Gun Control

A recent Pew Research Center report in FacTank, on the recall election in Colorado on Tuesday, September 10, analyst, Drew DeSilver said that the successful election against two Democratic state senators, one of whom was the president of the state senate, shows the divide in the electorate on the gun control issue. The data upon which the findings are based are taken from monthly opinions polls fielded by Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. The most recent survey was taken from May 1 to May 5, 2013 of a national sample of 1,504 adult Americans by landline and cell phone interviews. 

The chart shows the change in response to the question "Which do you this is more important: to control gun ownership or to protect the rights of Americans to own guns?" After the school shooting in Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, CT, in December, 2012, public opinion for protecting gun rights dropped slightly from 46% to 42% but has since grown to 48% with public opinion in support of gun control remaining roughly at 50%.  

Pew Research Center for the People and the Press offers these data in an interactive chart tool which allows the user view them in a line chart with a demographic variable that they select.   The tool can be reached through TeachingWithData.org  at http://themostsearched.org/resource/3888 .

Read more:
http://www.pewresearch.org/
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/
http://www.pewresearch.org/author/ddesilver/
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013/09/11/colorado-recall-points-to-greater-intensity-among-gun-rights-supporters/
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/5-23-13%20Gun%20Policy%20Release.pdf
http://www.people-press.org/
http://themostsearched.org/
http://themostsearched.org/resource/3888

Presidential Race Polling Very Close

With the election looming just two weeks away, and the final debate between President Barack Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney in the books, the focus turns to polls.  The race has tightened in recent weeks, especially in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The President carried all these states in his win over Senator John McCain in the 2008 election, though polls indicate the 2012 election will be much closer, particularly in the previously mentioned battleground states.  While the President maintained an early advantage in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, recent polls in these states place the two candidates in a near deadlocked battle.  Mitt Romney has retained a slight lead in Florida, arguably the most important battleground state, over the past month.

The Economist has compiled an election season map, with polling details for each state.  Based on the most recent polling results President Obama possesses 253 likely Electoral College votes (17 shy of the 270 necessary for victory) to Mitt Romney's 191. However, there are still 94 votes from battleground states that are up in the air.  Should Mitt Romney hold onto his lead in Florida, he would receive 29 votes - the third most for any state.  This would leave him 50 votes shy of victory with 65 votes still on the table.  While Florida represents the most votes for any battleground state, Ohio may yet be the most important.  If the President takes Ohio along with the other 253 likely Obama votes, he surpasses the 270 vote mark with a single vote to spare.  A recent Quinnipiac Poll gives the President a five-point lead in Ohio, and he's led the state in most polls throughout the past two months.  

Two-Thirds of Americans Hold Favorable View of President Clinton

President Bill Clinton’s approval rating has reached its highest point yet.  According to Gallup, 66% of Americans hold a favorable view of the ex-President, twenty points higher than President Obama’s approval rating.  And while President Clinton enjoys widespread favorability among his Democratic base - with 90% of Democrats holding a favorable opinion of Clinton - the historically moderate Democrat also won over many Republicans: 44% view President Clinton favorably.

President Obama and Mitt Romney Locked in a Tight Battle For America's Next President

With the 2012 presidential election only months away, Gallup’s Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney pits the two candidates in a tight race – so tight, in fact, that the two are in a statistical tie.  Registered voters were asked: “Suppose the presidential election were held today.  If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party’s candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party’s candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?”  Undecided voters were asked which candidate they leaned towards, and their responses were incorporated into the results.  If the election were held today, Gallup's results (with the margin of error falling at ±3%) indicate that the result is too close to call.

Nearly 1 in 5 Americans Would Not Vote for a Mormon President

According to Gallup’s Frank Newport, the American public has not altered its views on the possibility of a Mormon president for the past 44 years. When asked if they would vote for their party's candidate if they were Mormon, 18 percent of respondents said they would not.  That response varies only slightly from the 17% who responded similarly in 1968. Additionally, of those who know Romney’s faith, 9% said they would not vote for a Mormon.  On the other hand, 29% of those who are unaware of Romney’s faith would not vote for a Mormon. With Mitt Romney ramping up his campaign for the upcoming presidential elections, it will be interesting to see how the electorate, which has never seen a Mormon major-party nominee, will respond. 

President Obama and Mitt Romney in Statistical Tie With 5 Months and Counting to Election Day

Gallup's Election 2012 poll has President Obama and Mitt Romney in a dead heat.  The President maintains only a one percentage point advantage with 46% of the vote to Romney's 45%.  However, the two are in a virtual tie, as the momentum has not quite shifted one way or the other over the past two months.  In fact, only rarely has the difference between the President Obama and Romney exceeded the margin of error.  Gallup also tracks the President's job approval rating at 47%.

SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey Points to Minorities as Key Factor in 2012 Presidential Election

On May 1^st, SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey released a report for the Brookings Institution citing what he believes to be a key factor in the upcoming presidential election: the minority vote. The first aspect Dr. Frey highlights is the disparity between eligible voters and the total minority population.  For every 100 Hispanic residents in America, only 44 are eligible to vote, whereas for every 100 white residents, 78 are eligible to vote. 

Additionally, Dr. Frey points to the greatly increased voter turnout rate among minorities in 2008 compared to 2004.  Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians all experienced an increase in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, but what makes this trend significant is the fact that minorities overwhelmingly vote in favor of the Democratic candidate. 

Finally, Dr. Frey emphasizes the idea that "minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?"  To answer this key question, Dr. Frey illustrates three different scenarios, each taking into account different assumptions of white and minority voting patterns.

In the first scenario, Dr. Frey conducts a simulation based on the 2008 turnout and margins for whites and minorities.  In this scenario, President Obama would win the election handily, garnering 358 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 180 (270 is needed to win). 

The second scenario applies the 2004 turnout and margins for whites and minorities to the simulation.  In this situation, Governor Romney wins a neck and neck election, receiving 286 electoral votes to President Obama's 252. 

Lastly, Dr. Frey generates a third scenario, which takes into account the 2004 turnouts and margins for whites, and the 2008 turnouts and margins for minorities.  In this final scenario, President Obama receives 292 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 246. 

In the full report, Dr. Frey details the historical voting patterns of minorities, and he provides a more in depth look at what to expect for the minority influence on the 2012 election.  Finally, for more information on historical voting patterns among various demographics, SSDAN recently released a brief detailing voter turnout in the past half-century.