Emmanuel Olaniyan has been elected the 10th Young Mayor of Lewisham, achieving over 50 per cent more votes than the second place candidate. The 15-year-old Forest Hill School student won with 40 per cent of the vote and will have a £30,000 budget to play with during his one-year term.
Watch his manifesto here. More about the Young Mayor here.
Cllr Johnson to step down in 2014
Brockley Councillor Darren Johnson this morning announced that he will not seek re-election next year. The London Assembly Chair says:
It’s been a real honour representing Brockley Ward for the Green Party on Lewisham Council since 2002. However, I’ve made the decision to step down and not seek re-election when my current term ends next May. I’ve enjoyed it immensely and worked with some wonderful local residents over the years on a whole range of issues. Twelve years is a long time, though, and I do want to find a bit more time to for some of my other passions in life, such as seeing live music.
I’ll be enthusiastically supporting our new Green Party candidates for the ward when our team is in place and will be working hard for continued Green success in Brockley Ward in the local elections next May.
Darren has been a truly excellent servant of Brockley over the last decade and his departure is a big loss. It also marks the end of an era for Green Party politics in the area.
It’s been a real honour representing Brockley Ward for the Green Party on Lewisham Council since 2002. However, I’ve made the decision to step down and not seek re-election when my current term ends next May. I’ve enjoyed it immensely and worked with some wonderful local residents over the years on a whole range of issues. Twelve years is a long time, though, and I do want to find a bit more time to for some of my other passions in life, such as seeing live music.
I’ll be enthusiastically supporting our new Green Party candidates for the ward when our team is in place and will be working hard for continued Green success in Brockley Ward in the local elections next May.
Darren has been a truly excellent servant of Brockley over the last decade and his departure is a big loss. It also marks the end of an era for Green Party politics in the area.
Lewisham Deptford selection process clean
Back in July, Unite's manipulation of the Labour Party's parliamentary selection process looked like it would become a much bigger political storm than eventually materialised and when Lewisham Deptford candidate Vicky Foxcroft got dragged into the story, we predicted it would be an issue which dragged on. However, we were wrong. East London Lines reports:
A Met Police investigation into the selection of a Unite official as the Labour candidate for the Lewisham Deptford seat in the 2015 election has found no evidence of malpractice.
Vicky Foxcroft was chosen by Labour in May as the replacement for veteran MP Joan Ruddock who is retiring at the end of this Parliamentary term. She is currently a councillor for Brockley.
The selection of Foxcroft, a Unite representative for high street bank workers, was referred to the police by the Conservative party following revelations of Unite’s influence on the selection process for the Falkirk seat.
A Met Police investigation into the selection of a Unite official as the Labour candidate for the Lewisham Deptford seat in the 2015 election has found no evidence of malpractice.
Vicky Foxcroft was chosen by Labour in May as the replacement for veteran MP Joan Ruddock who is retiring at the end of this Parliamentary term. She is currently a councillor for Brockley.
The selection of Foxcroft, a Unite representative for high street bank workers, was referred to the police by the Conservative party following revelations of Unite’s influence on the selection process for the Falkirk seat.
Tories call for investigation of Labour's Lewisham Deptford selection
The Unite / Labour controversy is threatening to envelop the Lewisham Deptford, following the recent selection of Unite worker Vicky Foxcroft as Labour's candidate for the safe seat in the next election. The Daily Mail reports that:
Scotland Yard was today asked to investigate fresh claims of law-breaking over union influence in the Labour party. The scandal deepened today as the Tories called on the Met Police to investigate allegations of orchestrated behaviour by Unite in Ilford North and Lewisham Deptford...
The letter [from Tory Vice-Chairman Bob Neill] also points to claims from a London Labour activist Mandy Richards that Unite is ‘bankrolling’ a number of ‘orchestrated’ campaigns. She singles out Lewisham Deptford for 'special attention'. Mr Neill says the activities, if true, could be in breach of the Fraud Act 2006 under the terms of ‘false misrepresentation’ or fraud by abuse of position.
Labour insiders had been keen to stress that problems with Unite's practices in Labour constituency parties was contained to Falkirk alone. A Labour source said: 'This is a silly political stunt.
The New Statesman reports that Labour is arguing that the Tories are wasting police time:
In neither case is there any evidence that illegal activity has taken place. Offering members free Labour membership in return for meeting Len McCluskey is not against the law and nor is "bankrolling" or "orchestrating" campaigns.
The Unite saga has already drawn blood and it's clear that we're only at the start of this news cycle, so it seems unlikely that this issue is going to go away soon.
Scotland Yard was today asked to investigate fresh claims of law-breaking over union influence in the Labour party. The scandal deepened today as the Tories called on the Met Police to investigate allegations of orchestrated behaviour by Unite in Ilford North and Lewisham Deptford...
The letter [from Tory Vice-Chairman Bob Neill] also points to claims from a London Labour activist Mandy Richards that Unite is ‘bankrolling’ a number of ‘orchestrated’ campaigns. She singles out Lewisham Deptford for 'special attention'. Mr Neill says the activities, if true, could be in breach of the Fraud Act 2006 under the terms of ‘false misrepresentation’ or fraud by abuse of position.
Labour insiders had been keen to stress that problems with Unite's practices in Labour constituency parties was contained to Falkirk alone. A Labour source said: 'This is a silly political stunt.
The New Statesman reports that Labour is arguing that the Tories are wasting police time:
In neither case is there any evidence that illegal activity has taken place. Offering members free Labour membership in return for meeting Len McCluskey is not against the law and nor is "bankrolling" or "orchestrating" campaigns.
The Unite saga has already drawn blood and it's clear that we're only at the start of this news cycle, so it seems unlikely that this issue is going to go away soon.
Brockley Councillor Foxcroft selected as our next MP*
Cllr Vicky Foxcroft has been chosen from a list of six women to replace Dame Joan Ruddock as Labour's next Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Lewisham Deptford, and thus our next MP.
Ruddock was not the most visible MP, so it will be nice to have a Brockley resident in the role after the next election.
UPDATE: *Please note, this headline is intended to be a damning satirical indictment of the effect that the combination of the FFP electoral system and party political tribalism has on local politics. It does not mean that BC is happy about the fact that the result is a certainty.
Ruddock was not the most visible MP, so it will be nice to have a Brockley resident in the role after the next election.
UPDATE: *Please note, this headline is intended to be a damning satirical indictment of the effect that the combination of the FFP electoral system and party political tribalism has on local politics. It does not mean that BC is happy about the fact that the result is a certainty.
Lewisham Labour selects The Minister Six
The all-woman shortlist of Labour's prospective Parliamentary candidates for Lewisham Deptford has been announced. And since whoever Labour selects to replace Dame Joan Ruddock as their representative is pretty much guaranteed to get the seat, the competition to become the Anointed One matters.
The list of six includes Brockley Councillor Vicky Foxcroft, who has done a decent job since she was elected in 2010, Whitefoot's Councillor Janet Daby, Lambeth Councillor Florence Nosegbe, Southwark Councillor Catherine McDonald, Mendora Ogbogbo and Paula Hirst.
The candidate will be chosen on May 18th.
Ex-Ladywell resident Paula Hirst is a Director of Urban Development and Regeneration for accountancy firm Mazars and was previously the Head of Sustainable Development at the Olympic Delivery Authority, where she "helped deliver jobs, business opportunities, and the first new urban park in London for 100 years."
Bye: The Last Man
The Labour Party has announced that its candidate for Lewisham Deptford (which covers Brockley) in the next election will be drawn from an all-woman shortlist. This is a very safe Labour seat, meaning that Lewisham Deptford is effectively guaranteed another female MP once Dame Joan Ruddock steps down.
Lewisham Deptford is one of five London seats which will be subject to all-female Labour shortlists. Harriet Harman, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, said: “I am calling on women to put themselves forward for the All Women Shortlists announced in London."
All-women shortlists are probably the least-worst solution to the challenge of creating a more representative House of Commons.
Lewisham Deptford is one of five London seats which will be subject to all-female Labour shortlists. Harriet Harman, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, said: “I am calling on women to put themselves forward for the All Women Shortlists announced in London."
All-women shortlists are probably the least-worst solution to the challenge of creating a more representative House of Commons.
The Growth of Russia's Middle Class
The Economist recently investigated the growth of Russia’s middle class in its March 2nd daily chart. The data inspected various characteristics of the Russian middle class throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The size of the middle class grew from 15% to 25% of the population, and GDP per person grew about $9,000 (growing approximately 133%). Additionally, Internet users grew from less than 50 per 1000 persons to over 450 per 1000. Lastly, the middle class has engaged in more tourism, with tourist travel abroad more than doubling. Of future interest will be the potential growth of the middle class throughout the current decade and how the new leadership (elections take place this coming Sunday) may affect this data.
Elections and Rural Bias
Every four years, America's chief politicians make a pilgrimage to Iowa and New Hampshire, two states that in to a large extent influence who will be America's two presidential nominees. Iowa and New Hampshire, of course, don't have the most delegates of any state, but the media coverage, money and momentum that candidates receive from high finishes in these first two states often makes them unbeatable (the 2008 election was unique in this regard, with both primaries competitive well past Super Tuesday). In 2007, Brown economists Brian Knight and Nathan Schiff set out to quantify exactly how much more influence voters in Iowa and New Hampshire had in the 2004 Democratic primary than voters in other states. Knight and Schiff noted that anecdotal correlations between candidates who win Iowa or New Hampshire and those who win the nomination are too simplistic because those correlations could reflect underlying candidate strength and examined changes in polling data in late states as a response to the outcomes of primaries in early states. In short, they found primary voters and caucus goers in the earliest states had eight times the influence of those in the latest states.It's not just the nomination system that biases American policy toward rural areas. States with small populations (which tend, of course, to be rural) are overrepresented in the Senate and Electoral College. To take the most extreme case, a citizen of Wyoming has 69 times the influence in the United States Senate as a citizen of California (that is to say, Wyoming's 544000 residents have the same representation as California's 37 million) and 3.7 times the influence in the Presidential election (three electoral votes per 544000 residents versus 55 per 37 million residents).
David Leonhardt in the New York Times argues that these systems of unequal representation have profound policy consequences. He notes that early-voting states are more likely to receive pork than late-voting ones if they supported the winning candidate, and that the Iowa caucuses have turned ethanol subsidies into an untouchable third rail despite little evidence they contribute much to solving the climate crisis. Most of all, he argues that America has an "anti-urban policy bias," focusing on the issues important to rural and small-town voters even though he believes that "national prosperity depends on urban prosperity."
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Not Just the Economy, Stupid
The conventional wisdom of American politics – indeed the conventional wisdom on electoral democracy in general – was captured by James Carville nineteen years ago: “It’s the economy, stupid.” The trope has serious evidence behind it. The importance of the economy in determining voting behavior has a half-century of empirical political science behind it. To try to delve into it would require a footnote alone too long for a blog post. But is it just the economy, stupid, as Carville no doubt wished (his candidate ran against an incumbent whose management of war in Kuwait was far more successful than his management of the recession at home)? Nate Silver, an electoral (and sports) statistician at the New York Times, doesn’t think so. He ran regressions on the correlation between a President’s approval rating overall and on foreign policy, as well as regressions on the correlation between approval on handling on the economy and overall approval. Shockingly, he found that approval of foreign policy was a more significant predictor of overall approval rating than approval of handling of the economy. For the former, the r2=0.72, while for the later r2=0.34. In lay terms: both approval of handling of the economy and handling of foreign affairs are significant predictors of a President’s overall approval ratings, but foreign affairs are a better predictor. Silver is careful to note that correlation does not imply causation, and that it is difficult to determine whether support for the President on certain issues causes or is caused by support for the President overall (the political science literature suggests most voters are shockingly unsophisticated about politics). While it is hard to determine exactly how the relationship between these three variables work, he provides powerful evidence that voters can, as Silver says, “walk and chew gum at the same time.”
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