Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is -8 for June, similar to -7 in May

According to a recent Gallup Poll, Americans' confidence in the economy held steady in June, despite U.S. stock prices registering a monthly decline for the first time this year. The results for June are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cellphone, with more than 15,000 Americans.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is based on two components: Americans' assessments of current economic conditions in the United States and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or worse. Americans remain more negative than positive toward the U.S economy's current state and future momentum.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged -8 in June, on par with -7 in May -- the highest monthly score since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in January 2008.

While U.S. stock prices declined in June, the Dow and S&P still had their best performances in the first half of the year since the late 1990s. Higher stock prices this year and increased optimism about housing prices have likely contributed to Americans' growing confidence.

California's Recovering Economy

Adam Nagourney, writing for The New York Times, examined California's recovering economy.  Compared to the rest of the nation, the Golden State experienced one of the longest and harshest downturns, spurred on by widespread foreclosures and a ballooning unemployment rate that surged to over 12.4% in mid-2010.  But by October, unemployment had dropped to 10.1% - high for most states, but a marked improvement for California.  In fact, the month-to-month drop from August to September (10.6% to 10.2%) was the state's largest decrease in the 36 years since it began tabulating unemployment statistics.  The housing market is recovering as well.  Home sales are up 25% from a year ago, and houses are staying on the market for a shorter period of time and selling for higher prices. The California Legislative Analyst's Office projects the state to post a $1.9 billion deficit next year, and perhaps even a $1 billion surplus.  California's deficit was at one point over $25 billion – bigger than many states' budgets.  With that said, a significant geographical divide characterizes the recovery.  Coastal areas are posting much lower unemployment rates and possess healthier housing markets than the inland areas.  Additionally, by some measuresCalifornia still has the worst poverty rate.  The state has rebounded significantly, but still has considerable work left to be done.  

Brookings Institution Finds Economic Recovery in Metro Areas to be Sluggish and Uneven

The Brookings Institution released its July Metro Monitor, in which the organization inspects key economic indicators from each of America’s 100 largest metropolitan areas in order to assess the national recovery.  The findings point towards a sluggish recovery.  Since the fourth quarter of the previous year, employment among the U.S.’s most populated regions rose 0.5%, unemployment fell 0.3%, GDP grew 0.6%, and housing prices decreased 2.1%.  Brookings points out diminishing GDP growth and meager job numbers as the most troubling indicators. 

Texas metro areas, due to a booming natural gas sector, experienced a more mild recession, and have thus pulled out of the downturn better than most regions.  High-tech metro areas such as Boston, Raleigh, San Jose, and Seattle have benefited from stabilization in housing prices, while on the other hand the majority of metro areas in the west have performed poorly.

Oil Consumption and Production

A brief piece from the Economist highlights the oil trends around the world during the past decade. The article argues that the demand for oil exceeds oil production, following significant increases in consumption especially in Asia.

Prices of crude oil increased to $118.59 a barrel on June 8. The recent OPEC meeting in Vienna did not reach a conclusion on production quotas. Despite the failure to reach a consensus, Saudi Arabia has been planning to raise production levels by 1 million barrels a day.

One of the difficulties surrounding OPEC's meeting was the unique situation in some OPEC member states. For example, Libya has failed to produce much oil ever since February when the civil rest escalated into violence. This situation ultimately leaves to other nations the responsibility of filling the gap in oil production. On the other hand, other member nations like Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE support the insurgents in Libya.



Over the past ten years, China's consumption of oil increased by about 4 million barrels a day. This increase accounts for 40% of the world's rise in oil consumption. Also, for the first time ever, worldwide consumption superseded production by 5 million barrels per day.

Gas Prices

A Los Angeles Times blog post reports that for the first time in almost three months, the average price of gasoline in California fell below $4 per gallon. While the national average has been sitting near $3.77 a gallon for the past couple weeks, the highest prices in the 48 states are found in Illinois and Michigan. The average cost of a gallon of gas in Illinois is $4.146, and that in Michigan is $4.116.
Mississippi has one of the lowest average gas prices in the country, at $3.518 a gallon. The current average prices in Mississippi and California demonstrate nearly a 6% decrease from a month ago. On the other hand, Illinois' price indicates only a 3% decrease over the past month, and that for Michigan fell by a mere 2% over the same time period.

The high gas prices in the Midwest, however, are not unusual considering the recent events in the region's oil industry. Three refineries in Illinois are experiencing problems, and several nearby pipelines have been shut down to continue with repairs.

An interesting way to monitor the fluctuation in gas prices is by following the Daily Fuel Gauge Report by AAA. Not only does the website provide the average gas prices of states around the country, but it also depicts these prices over time and visually on a map.

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