National Job Creation Remains Steady

The Gallop Job Creation Index averaged around +19 in October.  The Job Creation Index is obtained from surveying employees’ perceptions of workplace hiring and firing.  The percentage of employers who are firing is subtracted from the percentage of employers who are hiring. For the month of October, 35% of respondents said that their employers were expanding their workforce and 16% of respondents indicated that their employers were reducing their workforce.  These estimates of hiring and firing nationwide have remained steady in recent months, as the Job Creation Index has stayed in between +16 and +20 for the majority of 2012.

Regionally, employers in the Midwest (+23) and the South (+19) are consistently hiring and expanding more than employers in the East (+16) and West (+16).  In addition, nongovernment employers continue to score higher on the Job Creation Index (+22) than public-sector employers (+4).  However, in October, federal government employers (+8 percentage change) and state government employers (+5 percentage change) showed a significantly greater increase in Job Creation Index scores than private sector employers (+1 percentage change).  

Ultimately, nationally, the Gallop Job Creation Index remains steady and positive. However, the nation’s net-hiring score has not yet been restored to its pre-Recession 2008 peak (+26).  It is predicted that in response to the 2012 election, hiring and firing averages will fluctuate. If government leaders are able to effectively respond to economic challenges and implement national policies that boost employers’ confidence in the economy, it can be expected that the nation’s net-hiring score will improve.  

Private Sector Workers Faring Better than Government Employees

According to Gallup’s recently released Job Creation Index for April, job growth appears to be up in the private sector with more workers reporting that their employers are hiring rather than firing, bringing the private sector index to +25. In contrast, more government employees report higher levels of firing than hiring, bringing its index down to -7. Regionally, the South is experiencing the best market conditions, with 38% of those surveyed reporting that their employers are hiring and only 15% reporting that their employers are laying off workers. The East is faring the worst. It has the lowest Job Creation Index in the U.S. with +16. In the East, only 34% report that their employers are hiring whereas 18% report that their employers are letting go of workers. Nationwide, the Job Creation Index is up from +18 in March to +20 as of April, with 36% reporting that their employers are hiring, the highest figure since August 2008.

Looking for a Job? Try North Dakota

A recent Gallup survey shows that more employers in North Dakota were hiring rather than firing workers, and by a significant margin. This landed North Dakota a +34 score on Gallup’s Job Creation Index, with the District of Columbia trailing behind in second place with a +24 score. Rhode Island received the lowest score with a +4 and New Jersey placed second to last with +6. Though North Dakota may have the best job creation, Nevada appears to be making a turn around and had the strongest improvement in job creation. Michigan also improved significantly, adding 8 points to its job creation index in the past year.

In Polls Regarding Policy, Words Can Be Deciding Factor

In his blog post detailing the likely public response to President Obama's new jobs proposal, Nate Silver pointed out an important variable in the polling data we often take as fact: the wording of questions. He asks, "Are Americans going to be tolerant of proposals for new spending after having spent six months hearing about deficit reduction?" His answer? "Well, it depends on how you ask them."

According to Silver,"when the issue is framed as one of jobs against deficits, jobs win." He writes: "On average, those polls that ask Americans to prioritize 'creating jobs' or 'reducing unemployment' against 'cutting spending' or 'reducing the deficit' have had 57 percent of respondents coming out on the jobs side, against 36 percent who prioritize the deficit."

But wording can make all the difference. "The answer changes, however, when the conflict is instead framed as stimulus or recovery spending against deficits. In polls that employ the term 'spend' or 'spending' in describing the additional stimulus, its support drops to an average of 44 percent, with 50 percent saying that deficit reduction is the higher priority."

It appears President Obama has taken notice. Silver found "that in his speech on Thursday night, Mr. Obama used the term 'job' or 'jobs' 39 times, often preceded by 'create' — but never uttered the word 'stimulus.'" And when he used to word 'spend' or 'spending', he was typically referring to his efforts to reduce spending--not plans to spend more. Nor did "Obama specify the cost of his program."

Silver anticipates more "semantic scrum" to follow in the coming weeks of partisan policy debate. And he has a suggestion for pollsters and readers: "I would advise [pollsters] to use multiple question variants where possible, taking a larger sample and splitting it into halves or thirds, and I would advise readers to be suspicious of articles that cherry-pick one or two polls without discussing the broader context."


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U.S. Employers Did Not Add Jobs in August; Economists Blame Low Consumer Confidence, Political Impasse

A new report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that job growth that began in 2010 has ended, bolstering potential claims that more needs to be done by the government to spur job creation. August marked the first time in the past eleven months that nonfarm payroll employment did not increase. Unemployment did not improve either, remaining at 9.1 percent.

According to the New York Times, "the report added to the pressure on the administration, on Republicans who have resisted any new stimulus spending, and on the Federal Reserve, which has been divided over the wisdom of using its limited arsenal of tools to get the economy moving again." Next week, President Obama will deliver the Administration's proposal to increase employment, and Secretary of Labor Hilda L. Solis claimed the President would appeal to the population directly if Congress was unreceptive to his plans. Republicans, however, were quick to blame President Obama's economic policy as the cause of the negative news, even dubbing him "President Zero." Economists had anticipated that 65,000 jobs would be added in August, less than the 85,000 jobs that were added as recently as July. But the report showed the situation was worse than expected. Economists took aim at low consumer demand and political inefficiency, suggesting that "both sluggish demand for goods and services and the heightened uncertainty over the economy’s direction...[led to] the slow pace of job creation," and "saying that political deadlock was creating economic paralysis."

Next up is the question of whether extended unemployment benefits and the payroll tax cut should be renewed for the upcoming year.

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