Growth of the Nonreligious

The new, nationwide survey by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life of 4,006 adults conducted March 21-April 8, 2013, asked Americans whether having "more people who are not religious" is a good thing, a bad thing, or doesn't matter for American society.  About half of Americans say the growing number of "people who are not religious" is bad for American society.

Fully a third of U.S. adults say they do not consider themselves a "religious person." And two-thirds of Americans say religion is losing its influence in Americans’ lives. Many more say the growing number of "people who are not religious" is bad than good (48% versus 11%). But about four-in-ten (39%) say it does not make much difference. Even among adults who do not identify with any religion, only about a quarter (24%) say the trend is good, while nearly as many say it is bad (19%); a majority (55%) of the unaffiliated say it does not make much difference for society.

Members of all the major U.S. religious groups with large enough samples for analysis are more inclined to see this development as a bad than good thing for society. White evangelical Protestants are especially likely to say the growing number of people who are not religious is a bad thing, with nearly eight-in-ten (78%) holding this view. Majorities of black Protestants (64%) and white non-Hispanic Catholics (56%) say the same. Fewer than one-in-ten in each of the three groups says this trend is a good thing for society.

The balance of opinion also is lopsided among white mainline Protestants, among whom 45% say the increase in those who are not religious is a bad thing, just 6% say it is a good thing, and 46% say it doesn't make much difference for society.

Among Hispanic Catholics, 36% say it is bad for society, 11% say it is good for society, and about half (48%) say the trend does not matter.

Americans Lacking a Religious Affiliation on the Rise

The Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life reports that although the number of Americans who identify as Atheist or lack a religious affiliation has increased, many of them still believe in God. About 20% of US adults are either Atheist, Agnostic, or lack any religious affiliation. However, of the 46 million adult Americans who are unaffiliated, two-thirds report that they believe in God and one-fifth report that they pray on a daily basis.

Among those 65 and older, 90% are religiously affiliated. Among those 18-29, only 67% have a religious affiliation. Interestingly, the decline has not been uniform among all religions. Protestants have taken the largest hit. Between 1972 and 2010, there was an 11% dip in the number of adult Americans who identified as Protestant. However, those identifying as Catholic remained relatively stable during the same time period, with 26% identifying themselves as Catholic in 1972 compared to 25% in 2010. Moreover, the rise in the number of Americans who identify as religiously unaffiliated could have major implications for future elections. Americans who lack a religious affiliation tend to lean Democrat, with nearly 63% of those registered to vote reporting that they are either Democrat or lean towards the party.

Mormon Republicans Loyal to Romney; Atheist Republicans Disproportionately Go For Paul

According to Gallup, Republican and Republican-leaners of voting age who identify as Mormon are disproportionately likely to support Mitt Romney, while Ron Paul garners more support among atheist Republicans than he does among Republicans of all religious denominations. Romney collects 71 percent of the Mormon Republican vote, exceeding the 23 percent he scores among all Republicans, and Paul garners 19 percent of the atheist vote, more than the 10 percent of all Republicans who support him. Gallup surmises that Paul's support among atheist Republicans at least partly reflects "the youthful skew in Paul's support and the tendency for young Americans to have no formal religious identity."

But Republican voters do not always support the candidate who shares their religious denomination: "Catholic Republicans were no more likely than average to support the two Catholics in the GOP race, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum; Protestant Republicans did not disproportionately support any particular candidate." 26 percent of Republicans who identify as Catholic support Gingrich, less than the 28 percent of all Republicans who support him. And four percent support Santorum, only slightly more than the three percent of all Republicans who support him.

Similar to Catholic Republicans, Protestant Republicans "reflect the overall sample average in their candidate support." The three major Protestant candidates are Ron Paul, Rick Perry, and Michele Bachmann (who has just suspended her campaign). Paul only gets 10 percent of the Protestant vote, which matches his score among all Republicans; Perry gets eight percent of the Protestant vote, only one more percentage point than his support among all Republicans; and Bachmann scores seven percent of the Protestant vote, just surpassing the six percent of all Republicans who support her.

Although Romney attracts the vast majority of the Mormon Republican vote, Mormons represent a relatively small percentage of the voting population. Gallup writes: "Given that Mormons constitute about 2% of American adults and 4% of Republicans nationally, the more important factor may be any possible effect that Romney's faith has on the vote of highly religious non-Mormons, a much larger voting bloc. The current data show that highly religious Protestants do give Romney slightly lower support than he gets among all Republicans, although the five-point difference is not huge."