Sales For Retail and Food Services Rise

The Department of Commerce’s encouraging report on sales for retail and food services triggered a rise in the U.S. stock market, with the Dow gaining 95.38 points to close at 13,424.23.  Sales for September topped off at $412.9 billion, up 1.1% from August, and up 5.4% from a year ago.  For the first time, sales have remained above $400 billion each month of the year, and four years of increases has erased the $40 billion decline following the recession. The retail and food services report covers a wide variety of American businesses, such as auto dealers, grocery stores, department stores, and therefore is an important barometer for judging the health of the economy.  Car and auto parts dealers, which contribute $75 billion to the overall figure, have seen sales rise 8.7% since last year, and gas station sales have increased 3.9% from the previous year, indicating that Americans are steadily returning to the pump.  After plummeting over 41% after the recession, gas station sales have recovered to 2008 levels of $47 billion.   

Macroeconomic view: why U.S. in 2010 is similar to Japan in 2000

Figure 1 compares the current situation with economic growth in the US and the past of Japan in one simple graph. The productivity (output per hour), Ph, and GDP per capita, G, time series both normalized to their respective values in 1950. In Japan, these two curves intersect in 2000 and then deflation started. In the US, the G curve touched the Ph curve in 2010 and they have been evolving in sync since.     

Is the U.S. inventive?

A simple comparison of productivity evolution in advanced economies. Acemoglu,  Robinson and Verdier published a paper on technological progress  or “inventiveness” of the U.S.  This paper was not accepted well in the blogosphere. Not repeating the argumentation against the paper I’d like to presents three simple graphs.  I propose to measure the technological progress of a country by the growth rate of productivity. There are three variables representing productivity: output per hour, Ph, output per worker, Pw, and GDP per capita, G. The intuition is simple – rising productivity mostly reflects the usage of most progressive technology and human capital (also kind of technology). In order to compare various countries, I have normalized all time series to their respective values in 1950. Therefore, the curves in Figure 1 show the relative growth.  One can judge that the growth in the U.S. was the lowest. Japan rules! France is very productive. The UK is the closest to the U.S.  (All data are borrowed from TED maintained by the Conference Board.)

 

Innovative Thinking?

By Virgil R. Carter

 

Is innovation important in your field?  Is your organization considered innovative?  Just how do innovators think? In a recent article, Harvard Business Review contributing editor Bronwyn Fryer reported on an interview on innovative thinking.  Fryer conducted a question-and-answer session with Professors Jeff Dyer of Brigham Young University and Hal Gregersen of Insead to explore how the "Innovators' DNA works”.

 

Dyer and Gregersen conducted a six-year study surveying 3,000 creative executives and conducting an additional 500 individual interviews. The study found five "discovery skills" that distinguish the executives.

 

--Associating:  a cognitive skill that allows creative people to make connections across seemingly unrelated questions, problems, or ideas

 

--Questioning:  an ability to ask "what if", "why", and "why not" questions that challenge the  status  quo and open up the bigger picture

 

--Closely observe details:  particularly the details of people's behavior. –Experiment:  trying on new experiences and exploring new worlds

 

--Ability to experiment:  always trying on new experiences and exploring new worlds

 

--Networking:  connecting with smart people who have little in common with them, but from whom they can learn

 

“Overall, associating is the key skill because new ideas aren't created without connecting problems or ideas in ways that they haven't been connected before”, according to Dyer.

 

Dyer commented that one might summarize all of the skills they’ve noted in one word: "inquisitiveness." “I spent 20 years studying great global leaders, and that was the big common denominator. It's the same kind of inquisitiveness you see in small children”, he commented.

 

Dyer asked the executives in their study to tell them about how they came up with a strategic or innovative idea. That one was easy for the creative executives, but surprisingly difficult for the more traditional ones. Interestingly, all the innovative entrepreneurs also talked about being triggered, or having what one might call "eureka" moments. In describing how they came up with a product or business idea, they would use phrases like "I saw someone doing this, or I overheard someone say that, and that's when it hit me."

 

In conclusion, Dyer added, “We also believe that the most innovative entrepreneurs were very lucky to have been raised in an atmosphere where inquisitiveness was encouraged. We were stuck by the stories they told about being sustained by people who cared about experimentation and exploration.”

The price index of housing

The housing index comprises approximately a half of the headline CPI. A year ago we reported that the price index of housing had been decreasing since the end of 2008 relative to the overall CPI. This is a new trend in the difference between the CPI and the index of housing (both are seasonally adjusted) which is shown by red line in Figure 1.  Considering the current trend, we expect that the housing price index will demonstrate no actual growth or fall relative to the CPI through 2013. In other words, the housing index will evolve in sync with the headline CPI.  

Figure 1. The difference between the headline CPI and the index of housing.   

Ayam Percik III (Malay Traditional Creamy Grilled Chicken III)

 This is a third version of Ayam Percik posted in my blog and this is inspired from a friend Hatta who cooked for us in the last Ramadhan. - very easy to prepare and surely delicious and nice aroma.

By: Roz@HomeKreation
INGREDIENTS:
1/2 Chicken (bottom part) 
1 tbsp Chili Powder
1 tsp Black Pepper Powder
1 Big Onion*
2 cloves Garlic*
2" Ginger*
1" Galangal*
1 Lemongrass*
1 tbsp Coriander Seeds*
1 tsp Cumin Seeds*
1 tsp Fennel Seeds*
1 tsp Turmeric Powder*
1/2 packet Coconut Powder*
Salt*, Sugar*
(* blend with plenty of water until fine) 
Extra Virgin Olive Oil

METHOD:
1. Rub chicken with salt & sprinkle chili powder & black pepper all over.
2. Place chicken in a baking casserole.
Pour blended ingredients* on top of chicken.
Springle EVOO all over.
3. Bake 200C until done.
I used microwave roast function 28min.
4. Chop & pour leftover gravy from roasting pan.
Serve with white rice.
************************************

BAHASA MALAYSIA VERSION
Ini versi ke 3 Ayam Percik yg Along kongsikan kat blog ni. Versi ni amat mudah sekali tapi tetap sedap. Resepi ni di ilhamkan dari En Hatta yg hidangkan ayam ni sewaktu berbuka puasa kat rumah dia di bulan Ramadhan yg lepas. En Hatta memang terrer bab2 masakan, maklum lah tokey restoren kan. Thanks dear for the treat and hope you don't mind me sharing here.

By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation
BAHAN2:
1/2 ekor Ayam (bahagian bawah) 
1 sb Serbuk Cili
1 st Serbuk Lada Hitam
1 bj Bwg Besar*
2 ulas Bwg Putih*
2" Halia*
1" Lengkuas*
1 btg Serai*
1 sb Biji Ketumbar*
1 st Jintan Manis*
1 st Jintan Putih*
1 st Serbuk Kunyit*
1/2 bungkus Santan Serbuk*
Garam*, Gula*
(* blend dgn sedikit air sehingga halus) 
Extra Virgin Olive Oil

CARA2:
1. Lumur ayam dgn garam & taburkan serbuk cili & lada sehingga rata.
2. Letakkan ayam dlm bekas pembakar.
Tuangkan bahan2 blend* ke atas ayam.
Renjiskan EVOO sehingga rata.
3. Bakar 200C sehingga masak.
Along guna microwave roast function 28min.
4. Potong2 ayam & tuangkan lebihan kuah dari dulang pembakar.
Hidangkan dgn nasi putih.

PPI of metals on decline

This is a regular revision. We have been following the evolution of several price indices of metals since 2008. Our general approach is based on the presence of long-term sustainable (linear and nonlinear) trends in the evolution of the CPI and PPI in the United States [1, 2]. The difference between various components of these indices is not a random one but is rather a predetermined process. Using these trends, one can predict consumer and producer price indices for select goods, services and commodities.  

In this post, we revisit the trends in the PPI of three commodities related to metals: steel and iron and nonferrous metals. Originally, we reported on these items in 2008 and then revisited in 2010and February 2012. We expected the index of steel and iron to return to the long term trend, which express a higher rate of growth of the producer price index than that of steel and iron. The index of nonferrous metals had to fluctuate with large amplitude around the PPI and grew at a lower rate than PPI during 2012.  

1.     Figure 1 compares the difference between the PPI and the index for iron and steel (101). The difference is characterized by the presence of a sharp decline between 2001 and 2008. Between 1985 and 2000, the curve fluctuates around the zero line, i.e. there was no linear trend in the absolute difference. Our main assumption was that the negative trend observed before 2008 should start transforming into a positive one after 2008. In Figure 1, the (expected) new trend is shown by green line. This trend suggests that the PPI grows faster than the index of steel and iron by approximately 2 units of index per year. Figure 2 demonstrates the most recent period and confirms that our prediction for 2012 was correct – the difference has been approaching the green line. One may foresee the difference to intersect the green line in the near future as a (pendulum) return motion. The index of steel and iron will likely be falling in absolute terms in the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.  

2.     The index for non-ferrous metals (102) shows an example of the absence of sustainable trends in the difference (see Figure 3). The curve is rather a comb with teeth of varying width. Although varying, the distance between consecutive troughs is several years at least. In February 2012, we expected this index to decrease relative to the PPI and the difference in Figure 3 to rise to the level of -10. This prediction is still valid but the difference has gained only 18 points since February (from -62 to -44). Considering the observation that the rate of growth was approximately 3 points per month since February 2012 one may expect the level of -10 in approximately 10 to 12 months, i.e. in September 2013.  The price of nonferrous metals will be decreasing in absolute terms as well.

 

Figure 1. The difference of the PPI and the index of steel and iron updated for the period between January 2012 and August 2012. As expected, the difference has been increasing during the reported period and closed the new trend (green). The price index for iron and steel will be growing at a lower rate than the overall PPI.    

Figure 2. The evolution of the difference between the PPI and the price index of iron and steel between January 2005 and August 2012. Green line predicts the evolution of the difference after 2008. Red circles represent the difference between April 2009 and August 2012.  

Figure 3.  The evolution of the difference between the PPI and the index of nonferrous metals from 1985 and August 2012. There are no linear trends in the difference, but its behavior demonstrates a clear periodic structure with relatively deep but short troughs.