By Melkulangara BHADRAKUMAR
Saudi Arabia is projecting that its rejection of the seat of a non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council rests on high principles. However, the big question is: Who in reality Riyadh is snubbing? It may seem to be the UN system, but appearances can be deceptive.
To be sure, Riyadh had knowingly sought the privilege of being represented in the Security Council for the very first time since the inception of the world body over six decades ago. It assiduously canvassed for over a year to gain support for its candidature from the UN member countries after being nominated as the unanimous choice of the Arab bloc. Evidently, realpolitik figured in the Saudi calculus and if at all high principles began dawning on the Saudi mind, it must have been fairly recently.
The Saudis have decided on a “course correction.” Period. It is theatrical and it jars against the country’s famous reputation for the glacial pace at which its ponderous establishment takes decisions. More than anything, it is a rash decision and, therefore, somewhat “un-Saudi”, given their record of being overly cautious.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry statement alleged that “the manner, the mechanisms of actions, and double standards existing in the Security Council prevent it from performing its duties and assuming its responsibilities towards preserving international peace and security as required, leading to the continued disruption of peace and security, the expansion of injustice, the violation of rights, and the spread of conflicts and war around the world.” In sum, Riyadh puts the entire blame on the UN’s doorstep. No doubt, it is a virulent tirade and the statement piles on the additional charge that the UN SC has shown no inclination to reform despite international efforts “in which Saudi Arabia has participated very effectively.”
It then went on to list out three specific areas where Security Council failed. On the very top comes its inability to secure for the Palestine people their legitimate rights. Then follows, implicitly though, Israel's nuclear weapons stockpiles ("Middle East region free of all weapons of destruction") and Iran's nuclear program ("subdue the nuclear programs of all countries"). Syria is listed as the third reason – failure to apply "any deterrent sanctions against the Damascus regime."
But then, Riyadh knew all along that the United States would never allow the Security Council to force Israel to pull out of the West Bank. Besides, Saudi Arabia claims to support the "Palestine Cause" but never exerted itself seriously and instead even maintained covert contacts with Israel, which are today more or less out in the open.
The plain truth is that the Saudi canvassing for a seat in the UN SC began several months ago at a time when the prospects of a US-Iranian engagement seemed rather bleak and the regime change agenda in Syria was in full swing. However, the tectonic plates began shifting through the past few weeks, which no one could have anticipated, with the extraordinary initiative by Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Syria’s chemical weapon stockpiles…
The implementation of the Russian-American concord on the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons effectively makes the Bashar Al-Assad government the key interlocutor of the "international community" whose cooperation is today being commended upon by the Obama administration. On the other hand, the Syrian opposition mentored by Saudi Arabia has become disillusioned, is literally atomizing and increasingly radicalizing, apart from losing ground to the government forces.
Equally, conventional wisdom suggested that the formidable clout of the Israeli Lobby with the American political establishment would compel President Barack Obama to backtrack on his plan to engage with Iran. The Saudis worked closely with the Israeli Lobby in the corridors of power in Washington but feel despondent today that Obama has decided to explore the possibilities of an engagement with Tehran.
The Saudis can also the writing on the wall that their game is in serious trouble in Syria and the robust, relentless Russian diplomatic push for Geneva 2 process cannot be stonewalled anymore. Under the circumstances, the Saudis do have an option to strategically defy the US and mount a military campaign in Syria and indeed there have been reports that Riyadh is mobilizing the extremist Islamist groups under its wing as a new fighting force. But such a strategic defiance of the international community may come at a high price and may be difficult to sustain, because the Saudis are also increasingly unable to carry the Sunni Arab countries along with it in its proxy war with Iran.
Iraq and Algeria frankly oppose the regime change project in Syria. Today, Qatar stands aloof, brooding after a nasty brawl with the Saudis over Egypt (and Syria). Turkey is on the cusp of a rethink and shows signs of disquiet over the presence of the al-Qaeda-affiliated groups on its borders with Syria. Egypt has altogether pulled out of the regime change project in Syria and is on the contrary flushing out the Syrian rebel groups from their safe haven in Cairo. The other GCC states are also becoming ambivalent under US pressure. The International Crisis Group recently estimated that the Saudis would soon face a logistical problem in smuggling weapons into Syria, with both Turkey and Jordan showing reluctance.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia also knows that if the Russian-American accord on Syria’s chemical weapons holds, it becomes imperative to commence intra-Syrian dialogue and the mood in the UN SC will only favor advancing a diplomatic and political solution to the Syrian conflict. That means, as a Security Council member, Saudi Arabia might even have been caught in the ridiculous position of commending the excellent cooperation being given to the Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons by the Syrian regime. Actually, an OPCW statement last Thursday said that chemical weapons in 6 sites out of twenty have already been destroyed and that the proposed timeline visualizing the completion of the job by the middle of next year is realistic. It expressly stated its satisfaction over the cooperation received from the Syrian authorities.
However, Syrian conflict too is at its core a proxy war and the core reason behind the Saudi heartburn today is the US' engagement of Iran. Syria becomes a sub-plot of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. The overthrow of the Syrian regime is important for the Saudis as a means to cut down Iran's regional reach, especially its capacity to be a big player in Lebanon, which Riyadh considers its vassal on the Levant – like Bahrain in the Persian Gulf. And, Lebanon (Hezbollah) explains partly the Saudi-Israeli congruence as well.
All in all, therefore, the Saudis are sulking, which is what the decision not to occupy the UN SC seat signifies. They have been taken by surprise both by the flow of events regarding Syria as well as the commencement of direct talks between the US and Iran. Will the Saudi sulk impress anyone? In the ultimate analysis, the Saudis have only themselves to blame. They need to do some serious rethink to get out of the deep hole, which they dug for themselves in their obsession with Iran's rise.
The Saudi regime is wedded to a rock-like faith that the solution to any problem lies in throwing money at it. But for the first time it is getting to see that while money can take one far, it’s not the be-all and end-all in politics. Thus, even with the generous bankrolling of the interim government in Cairo, there is no sign as yet that the Egyptian economy is reviving or that the mass discontent would subside and the country would regain its stability. Again, after having spent billions of dollars on the regime change project in Syria, the Saudis don’t see light at the end of the tunnel. Finally, having tried to “influence” the movers and shakers in the Washington political circuit to stall the US-Iran engagement, Saudi Arabia realizes that its efforts haven’t been good enough.
But then, there is also something more involved here – perhaps, much more. Succinctly put, Riyadh intends that its decision to “boycott” the UN SC will be seen primarily as a snub to the Obama administration. The US-Saudi relations are being buffeted by strong undercurrents.
Islam is a terrorist culture, not a religion. Basil Venitis, venitis@gmail.com, http://themostsearched.blogspot.com @Venitis
The Arab Spring will eventually come to Saudi Arabia. Despite generally good relations, Occident remains concerned about human rights conditions in Saudi Arabia and global terrorism of the Royal House of Saudi Arabia. Principal human rights issues include abuse of prisoners and incommunicado detention; prohibitions or severe restrictions on freedom of speech, press, peaceful assembly and association, and religion; denial of the right of citizens to change their government; systematic discrimination against women and ethnic and religious minorities; and suppression of workers' rights.
If an Arab Spring uprising completely disrupted Saudi oil production, Occident and the global economy would face a massive economic and strategic crisis. Russia and Iran as oil-producing states would likely exploit the crisis to increase their power around the world while undermining Occidental influence, especially in the Middle East. To guard against the economic and strategic dangers, Occident should prepare emergency measures before such a crisis. Releasing strategic petroleum reserves in coordination with other countries, tapping the North American energy resources, and reducing domestic energy consumption would limit the impact of the crisis and facilitate recovery. However, it is also in the U.S. interest to use its influence and resources to assist allies and friends during the crisis.
When “Funding Evil: How Terrorism is Financed — and How to Stop It” was published in New York, Rachel Ehrenfeld never imagined that attempts to silence her book would emanate from London’s High Court. The book contained information from numerous reliable open sources on reputed funders of terrorism. Saudi billionaire Khalid bin Mahfouz, the former owner of the biggest bank in the Middle East, the National Commercial Bank of Saudi Arabia, claimed Ehrenfeld’s book damaged his reputation. That claim was accepted by a judge of the High Court, David Eady.
The Saudi Kingdom is the largest oil producer in the world — occasionally surpassed by Russia — and essentially dominates the oil market due to its large excess production capacity, which it can ramp up to 12 million barrels per day. A prolonged and massive disruption of Saudi oil production would significantly affect global energy markets and economic activity. The impact in Orient, a principal customer of Saudi oil, would be much worse than in Occident.
The United States has a vital interest in ensuring that no hostile power exercises hegemony over the Middle East, which is not only a key region for energy production, global trade, and investment, but also a potential source of transnational terrorism and nuclear proliferation. The U.S. will likely need to selectively use force to ensure the continued flow of oil from the region, as it did in Operation Desert Storm. Securing the oil fields and supporting allies, especially GCC members and pro-American elements in Saudi Arabia, may be imperative.
Princess Basma Bint Saud Bin Abdulaziz, daughter of King Saud, points out Saudis lack and urgently need fundamental civil laws with which to govern their society. Princess Basma would like to see a proper constitution that treats all men and women on an equal footing before the law but that also serves as a guide to Saudi civil laws and political culture.
Michaela Bendikova points out a collapse of Saudi oil production would drastically affect global energy and the economic situation. The economic performance of national economies around the world would suffer, with some falling into deep recession. Cooperative responses from main producers and consumers would be imperative. However, as previous war-gaming of energy crises has demonstrated, countries pursue their perceived national interests first and worry about international cooperation later.
Princess Basma notes today in Saudi courts, all decisions are made according to the individual judge's biased interpretation of Koran. This is entirely dependent on his personal beliefs and upbringing rather than universally agreed principles or a written constitution as a guide.
In the crisis scenario, the economic crisis further undermines the EU political coherence. EU reaction is muted and fragmented because the many competing national interests prevent formulation of a coherent and truly effective response. Despite the EU’s efforts in recent years, the liberalization of its energy market is proceeding slowly and would likely stop completely during a massive Saudi oil-supply disruption as each member state tries to cut the best possible deal with other suppliers in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Russia. However, the EU is well positioned institutionally to oversee the member states while they implement oil-saving measures and share crude oil and refined products among themselves.
Princess Basma is not calling for an Occidental system but an adaptation of that system to suit Saudi needs and culture. In particular, the constitution should protect every citizen's basic human rights regardless of their sex, status or sect. Everyone should be equal before the law.
Current misogynist divorce laws are abusive. Today in Saudi Arabia, a woman can ask for a divorce only if she files for Khali and Dhali. This means either she pays a big sum of money or she has to get someone to witness the reason why she is filing for a divorce - an impossible condition to fulfill given that such reasons usually are the kind that remain within the four walls of a marriage. Another way to keep a woman in the marital home against her will is the automatic granting of custody of any children over the age of six to the father in any divorce settlements.
Occident should plan ahead for a massive disruption of global oil supplies. The planning should begin with creating in advance an interagency task force under the National Security Council and the National Economic Council to enhance national security and economic security by using all available policy tools, including removing obstacles for market-based solutions, to guarantee the flow of oil. The purpose of this task force is to enable the security and foreign policy structures of the U.S. government, including the intelligence community, to work together with the Departments of Treasury, Energy, Commerce and other agencies and departments in charge of national economic policies. The task force should prepare a detailed program of domestic and international measures that would be implemented when wars, revolutions, and other extreme security events cause major supply disruptions.
Saudi misogyny is a direct result of the education Saudi children, boys and girls, receive at school. The content of the syllabus is extremely dangerous. For one, Saudi young are taught that a woman's position in society is inferior. Her role is strictly limited to serving her family and raising children. They are actually taught that if a woman has to worship anyone other than God it should be her husband, that the angels will curse her if she is not submissive to her husband's needs. Girls are also strictly forbidden from taking part in any physical education.
The focus in most of the misogynist Saudi educational system is on religious subjects such as hadith (sayings attributed to the prophet), Fiqh (Islamic jurisprudence), tafssir (interpretation of the Koran) and of course the Koran. The attitude is that learning itself, anything other than religion won't get you into heaven so don't waste your time. Princess Basma would like to see religious teaching limited to the Koran and the Sunna (the way the prophet lived), where the true ethics of Islam lie. The rest is blind rote learning of the most dangerous kind. It has left Saudi youth vulnerable to fundamentalist ideologies that have led to terrorism and abuse of women.
A crisis in Saudi Arabia would have drastic implications for the United States, its economy, and the whole world. The optimistic scenario modeled here presupposes a one-year cessation of production followed by a two-year recovery. In the real world, the exact length of the recovery period is difficult to predict. Gasoline prices would rise from $3.95 to more than $6.50 per gallon, petroleum prices would rise from $100 per barrel to more than $220 per barrel, employment losses would exceed 1.5 million jobs, and U.S. GDP would drop by a total of nearly $450 billion.
Princess Basma asserts that instead of wasting Saudi youths' intellect on memorizing quotations whose origins is uncertain (such as those found in hadith, Fiqh and tafssir) Saudis need to encourage them to think freely, innovate and use their initiative for the betterment of their society. Early Islam was a time of great creativity. Scholars excelled in sciences and literature. Islam should not be a shield behind which Saudis hide from the world but a driving force that inspires them to innovate and contribute to their surroundings. Princess Basma declares this is the true spirit of Islam.
The misogynist Saudi ministry of social affairs is tolerating cruelty towards women rather than protecting them. The only refuge homes that abused women can turn to are state ones. In these, women are continuously told that by seeking refuge they have brought shame on their families.
If they come from powerful families then they will be sent straight back to their homes in fear of the wrath of a powerful patriarch. As a result we have seen many cases of suicide by educated women, doctors and scientists who were sent back to their abusers. Princess Basma asserts Saudis need independent women's refuges where the rights of women are upheld and backed up by powerful laws that can override family traditions and protect women.
The misogynist ministry of social affairs not only abuses women's rights but is also one of the reasons poverty is rife in the kingdom. A corrupt system that lacks transparency has meant that more than 50% of Saudi population is poor and needy even though Saudi Arabia is one of the wealthiest countries on Earth.
Women in misogynist Saudi Arabia cannot get around or travel without a mahram (a kind of chaperone - usually a male relative). At the time of the prophet, women used to have a man to accompany them but in those days Arabia was a desert literally full of pirates. Today the only purpose of such a law is to curtail women's freedom of movement. This not only infantilizes women but turns them unnecessarily into a burden on their men and on society. Women in Saudi Arabia are not allowed to drive.
Bendikova asserts that while some degree of diplomatic engagement between U.S. allies and U.S. adversaries is inevitable during a crisis, the United States should make every effort to prevent a total disruption of its alliance relationships, including in the Gulf. The United States cannot secure its interests or fulfill its energy goals without its allies’ cooperation. A sound strategy lies in anticipating, planning, and preparing for possible scenarios such as this, rather than making up policies ad hoc as events unfold.
In Saudi Arabia,blasphemy against the Wahabi interpretation of Sunni Islam is punishable by death, but the more common penalty is a long prison sentence. Mansor Almaribe, an Australian Shia, was arrested and convicted of blasphemy and for insulting the companions of the Prophet. He was sentenced to 500 lashes and a year in prison.
Saudi Arabia does not recognize freedom of religion and prohibits the public practice of any religion other than Islam. The government subjects Muslims who did not adhere to the government’s interpretation of Islam to political, economic, legal, social, and religious discrimination. Some non-Muslims face harassment, detention, and death. Textbooks contain overtly intolerant statements against Jews, Shia and Sufi Muslims, and other religious groups.
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