Halliburton's shares

We have already presented updated pricing models for ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil as based on the differences between CPI and PPI components. Our share pricing concept was introduced two years ago and predicted share prices for a few energy companies. ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) from the S&P 500 list were the biggest and demonstrated almost no difference in the sensitivity to the difference between the core and headline CPIs. Halliburton’s share (HAL) was also modeled showed a dramatically different sensitivity. We made a tentative conclusion that COP and XOM might have a larger return to an investor considering energy stocks.

Basically, we demonstrated that the time history of a share price, p(t), (for example, HAL) could be accurately approximated by a linear function of the difference between the core CPI, cCPI(t), and the headline CPI in the United States. At the initial stage of our research, this difference was found to be the best to predict share prices in the energy subcategory.

Mathematically, a share price, HAL(t), (we use a monthly closing price adjusted for dividends and splits) can be approximated by a linear function of the lagged difference between the core and headline CPI:

HAL(t) = A + BdCPI(t+t₁)                                       (1)

where dCPI(t+t₁)=cCPI(t+t₁)–CPI(t+t₁), A and B are empirical constants. In the original model for HAL for the period between 1999 and 2009, A=43, B=-3.5; t is the elapsed time; and t₁=0 year is the time delay between the share and the CPI change, i.e. the CPI has a lag behind the share price.

In this article, we test several pricing models for Halliburton, HAL(t), with the same CPI and PPI components tested for ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil. The set of defining indices includes: the core and headline CPI, the consumer price index of energy, eCPI, and the producer price index of crude petroleum, pPPI, together with the overall PPI. Thus, we test model (1) for HAL(t) using two different differences for the period between 2001 and 2011: 

HAL(t) = A1 + B1(cCPI(t) - eCPI(t))  (2)   

HAL(t) = A2 + B2(pPPI(t) - PPI(t))         (3) 

All coefficients in (1)-(3) were estimates by the least squares for the period between January 2001 and July 2011. As for ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil, we found no time delay between the share price and defining differences, i.e. t₁=0. 

Figures 1 through 3 compare three HAL models. Corresponding coefficients are given in Figure captions. As in our original study, the best model (in sense of RMS residual, s) for the period between 2001 and July 2011 is based on the core and headline CPI (s=$4.18). Almost the same accuracy is associated with the model based on the core and energy CPI (s=$4.44).

At the same time, model (3) based on the producer price indices is the worst (s=$9.31). This may mean that Halliburton does not depend much on the producer price indices. Interestingly, the change in oil price does accurately describe the period of the financial crisis. However, the model fails to predict slow changes in the share price. Currently, the deviation between the observed and predicted prices is $20.

Halliburton’s shares were less sensitive to the change in consumer prices during the financial crisis than those of XOM and COP. However, the overall agreement between the observed and predicted prices is very good for the past ten years. One can expect that the current deviation from the predicted price will disappear in the near future and the observed price will fall down to $40 per share. In the long-run, the expected fall in oil price at a five-year horizon down to $30 per barrel will likely result in a proportional decrease in HAL’s shares.

Figure 1.  The observed HAL price and that predicted from the core and headline CPI.  A=$43, B=-3.4.

Figure 2.  The observed HAL price and that predicted from the core CPI and the consumer price index of energy.  A1=$30, B1=-0.3.

Figure 3.  The observed HAL price and that predicted from the overall PPI and the producer price index of crude petroleum (domestic production).  A2=$25, B2=-0.13. 

Public Opinion of Public School Teachers

Results from an annual poll conducted by Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) and Gallup shed light on Americans' views on teachers at public schools. According to the poll, 76% of respondents said that they "think high-achieving high school students should be recruited to become teachers" and 74% said they would encourage the brightest person they know to become a public school teacher if that person said they would like to be a teacher. Furthermore, 67% said they would like to have a child of their own "take up teaching in public schools as a career." There was less of a consensus on math and science teachers, however. When asked "which do you think is more important for our nation's future -- to encourage high school and college students with skills in science and math to become scientists or to become science and math teachers?" 48% of respondents said "become scientists" and 48% said "become science and math teachers." While these results suggest that Americans see a need for talented scientists, they also feel that intelligent young people and their own children should be encouraged and recruited to become teachers.



BL cf

Making Assumptions: Visas

by Jane M. La Barbera, CAE, Managing Director, Association of American Law Schools


Making arrangements for visas for professors located around the world has been an eye opening and educational experience. In 2004 we had an international conference in the US and we had such trouble bringing non-US professors to the conference. We were frustrated with the difficulty of inviting these well-respected leaders to the US.

As the years continued, in every country where we held a conference we faced difficulty in bringing conference delegates from developing countries. I blamed the delegates, assuming that they waited until the last minute to obtain their visas. This caused a mad scramble of activity weeks and days before the meeting dates even though we had issued the letters of invitations many months before. Usually, the consulate asked for more information at the last minute and we had to have the host university issue all communications on their letterhead in their language to the consulate. At this point, airfares were much higher in cost and hotel rooms might not be available.

It was a conversation with a distinguished African professor that enlightened me about my perspective on visas. She said that obtaining visas was another privilege of which those from developed countries were easily given and we had no clue as to the experience of someone from a developing country. She explained that while she and many of her colleagues from developing countries would request the visa as soon as the months in advance conference invitation was received, the consulates often did not act on these visa requests until the very last minute. Conference delegates would have to rush to obtain and complete all visa documents in order as soon as the invitation arrived, then constantly contact the consulate to see if the visa had been processed and they would be told over and over that it was being processed, if they received an answer at all.

In addition, many countries do not have consulates or embassies in every country or there might be one location in a very large country. We paid for a Senegal delegate to fly and stay in the US to obtain the visa from the Argentinian consulate (where the conference was to be held), rather than have them fly to a nearby African country to obtain the visa. Why? First, the consulate in the other African country was not open every day; we could fly this individual to that country and we could not rely that the consulate would see them on a timely basis because those from the country where the consulate was located would have first priority to be seen. To my surprise, it was cheaper to have the individual fly to the US, where they could attend another conference, go to the Argentinian Consulate in the US, make an appointment to fill out the application and have it processed before she left the US. It was also more reliable.

I am constantly reminded, especially, in the international arena, of uninformed assumptions that I make where my experience is limited to the perspective of someone from a privileged developed country.

CMI’s 5th Annual LGBT Community Survey

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASECOMMUNITY MARKETING, INC.

Contact: David Paisley; david@CommunityMarketingInc.com;
+1 415-437-3800

CMI’s 5^th Annual LGBT Community Survey™

• Over 30,000 respondents from 100 countries.
• First-ever mobile option yielded 12,000 survey respondents.
• Key comparisons to ‘General Population’ sample.
• Provides marketing and communications insights, while tracking motivations and trends.

(San Francisco, CA, September 1, 2011)

The Community Marketing, Inc. (CMI) 5th Annual LGBT Community Survey™ report was released today, featuring data from 100+ countries on over 30,000 LGBT consumers (including for the first time, 12,000 respondents to a mobile-optimized survey). Rivendell Media assisted in attracting the participation of over 150 LGBT websites, print publications, organizations and events. The survey was sponsored by Wells Fargo Bank and ABSOLUT® Vodka.

The report includes an appendix comparison to several “General Population” data points, derived from a parallel study of a demographically representative U.S. sample, as well as insightful commentary by community leaders on transgender, lesbian, Latino and African American respondents.
A pdf copy of CMI’s 5th Annual LGBT Community Survey report is available at no charge by using this link. (18mb)
Following are a few of the key findings from this year’s survey among United States gay men and lesbians.

• Social is the future. Gay consumers – especially younger gay men – are leading the charge toward the intersection of social networking and brand interaction. In the past week, 36% of gay men ‘checked in’ with FourSquare or other geo-location app at a venue. And, especially among younger gay men, emerging mobile ad platforms such as ‘QR codes/tags’ (21%) and mobile app banner ads (19%) are gaining traction for click-throughs.
• Resilient buying power. Despite the continuing economic downturn, LGBT consumers represent a powerful buying community that marketers cannot afford to ignore. A significant number across all age groups made major purchases last year, and even more are planning to buy big ticket items in the next 12 months. For example, LGBTs are more likely to have purchased smart phones, major vacations, furniture, tablet computers and home theaters than their general population counterparts.
• LGBT media matters. LGBT media is clearly approaching ‘mainstream’ levels among gay consumers. LGBT-focused websites are nearly as popular (61%) as mainstream sites (69%) among younger gay men. Regional gay print publications also impact a sizable audience. 33% of younger gay men and 48% of older gay men have read a local LGBT publication in the past week.

Respondent highlights include:
LGBT Outreach & Communications

• When asked what approaches have the “biggest impact” on purchasing decisions, 43% of lesbians indicated “equality in the workplace, 43% indicated “support of LBGT charities” and 42% indicated support of LGBT political causes as the top influencers.
• Mainstream ads that demonstrate LGBT-inclusiveness are gaining traction (37% for lesbians and 39% for gay men).
• A trend we are observing in focus groups: Companies integrating LGBT imagery into mainstream ads, such as Orbitz, Kaiser Permanente and J Crew, are being noticed, and increasingly impressing LGBT consumers.

Smartphone Ownership

• Nearly 70% of gay men own a smartphone – just slightly higher than lesbians.
• About 50% of gay smartphone owners own iPhones.
• Lesbians use their smart phones for texting (87%) and Internet search (83%) followed by news, navigation and updating their social networks.

Technology & Social Interaction

• Gay men and lesbians are heavy users of technology for socializing with their networks. In the past week, 36% of gay men ‘checked in’ with FourSquare or other geo-location app at a venue.
• Younger gay men send nearly twice as many texts (26 per day) as age 30+ and about a third spend at least an hour per day on Facebook.
• Facebook isn’t just for young people. 85% of older gay men, and 88% of older lesbians are connecting with friends via Facebook. (These numbers are even higher among younger gay men and lesbians.)

Planned Purchases

• A “major vacation” is a the top ticket purchase being planned by many gay men (39%) and lesbians (37%) in the coming year
• Other popular major purchases being planned by gay men include cars (18%) and tablet computers (16%)

Media Consumption

• Interestingly, LGBT-focused websites are nearly as popular (58%) as mainstream sites (63%) among older gay men
• Don’t neglect the “traditional” print LGBT media, a resource that LGBTs still very much depend on. 33% of younger gay men and 48% of older gay men have read a local LGBT publication in the past week.
• Focus group insight: LGBT consumers have special appreciation for – and loyalty to – advertisers that support community media with ads. They know that without ad support, the publications they depend on for LGBT news and perspectives would not survive.

Interaction with Advertising

• Facebook advertising is rivaling traditional website banner ads among all LGBT consumer groups. 31% of both younger gay men and older gay men clicked on a Facebook ad in the past week, compared to 35% who clicked on a website banner ad.
• And, especially among younger gay men, emerging ad platforms such as ‘QR codes/tags’ (21%) and mobile app banner ads (19%) are gaining traction for click-throughs.

Diversity within LGBT
Differences by ethnic segments: A few highlights

• Gay Asian men tend to be the most ‘tech-forward’ audience – they are much more likely to be smartphone users (84% vs. 68% average) and over 1 in 4 have already purchased a tablet computer
• They are also the most likely to use their smartphones for activities such as navigation (74%) and playing games (66%)
• While the purchase habits of all LGBT consumers are clearly affected by a company’s LGBT best practices, Latinos/Latinas tend to be particularly influenced by equality in hiring, while Asians focus more on political and charitable causes
• When it comes to media consumption, readership of regional/local LGBT print publications tends to be slightly higher among African American gay men and lesbians, while Asian gay men and women are somewhat more likely to read LGBT blogs
• Appendix commentary by LGBT community leaders provides deeper insight to the transgender, lesbian, African American and Latino LGBT market segments

A few LGBT vs. Mainstream Comparisons

• Gay and lesbian consumers are about 50% more likely to own a smart phone than the general population. (68% gay men vs. 49% straight men; 60% lesbians vs. 40% straight women)
• Gay and lesbian consumers are also about 50% more likely than the general population to have made purchases with their smart phones, and equally more likely to receive “deal” notices from Groupon, Living Social, etc. on their smart phones.
• Lesbians are twice as likely to have “checked in” at a venue in the past week than their straight female counterparts (25% vs. 11%).
• Twice as many younger gay men clicked on a website banner ad than younger straight men (31% vs. 16%) in the past week.
• LGBTs are more likely to have purchased smart phones, major vacations, furniture, tablet computers and home theaters than their general population counterparts.

Notes:
A pdf copy of CMI’s 5th Annual LGBT Community Survey report is available at no charge by using this link.
CMI’s other annual study, the 16th Annual LGBT Travel Survey, will be produced in October. Results will be presented at the International Conference on Gay & Lesbian Tourism, Palm Springs, November 2-4, 2011.
LGBT Research: There is a difference. Learn about CMI’s research methodologies.
To receive research announcements and updates, please be sure to sign up for our newsletter.
About Community Marketing, Inc. [www.communitymarketinginc.com]
Founded in 1992, CMI is the global leader in gay and lesbian market research, strategies and communications. CMI initiated the annual practice of collecting and analyzing data on gay and lesbian consumers in 1994 through online surveys, focus groups, field, telephone and customer satisfaction studies, as well as advisory boards. Business leaders from a variety of industries turn to CMI’s research to better understand LGBT consumers and business decision-makers.
CMI research is trusted by — and frequently quoted in — the New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Miami Herald, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Ad Week, Associated Press, UPI, CNN, CBS News and many others around the world.
Media interested in specific topics are welcome to contact CMI for further information.
Note to editors: Above is just a sample of the information available.  Press inquires should be directed to David Paisley, Senior Research Director, Community Marketing, Inc., 415/437-3800 ext. 102, or email david@communitymarketingnc.com.

Week 57

One year ago, the temple site looked like this:

Today, the temple and site looks like this:

This is truly a miracle.  You may recall that the Salt Lake Temple took 40 years of hard labor to build (and it is one of my favorite temples), but what beneficiaries we are to have the ability to erect such a beautiful temple to this state of completion in just one year!

Detail of stone work

Stone work will cover the top and sides of the concrete wall coming from the underground parking

 

OK, so I am fascinated by the mechanics of the post-tensioned concrete deck of the parking structure?

Forest of temporary bracing to pour the deck of the underground parking

Ogden Temple Reconstruction - Moroni has left the building

I'm sure that many readers of this blog have attended the Ogden Temple at one time or another.  I stopped by yesterday to see how the reconstruction was going.  There is barely anything recognizable left!

As I reported before, the parking structure is completely gone; only a dirt field remains.  The temple itself has been completely gutted, only the basic structure is still in place.

It made me a little sad to see the condition of the temple, since I remember how it was inside.  I hope the reconstruction will result in an even more beautiful building.

The round part of the floors on the West have been removed

 

I think this steel structure was part of the steeple

 

East side round floors are still in place

Even the Tabernacle has been gutted

Empty field formerly occupied by the parking garage

Selamat Hari Raya 2011

Kepada semua kawan-kawan yang Along sayangi dan juga para pembaca.... terima lah kad ini sebagai pengganti diri sebagai ucapan tulus ikhlas dari Along & keluarga. Halalkan ilmu2 yang di kongsi bersama. Kad ni juga buat pengganti kek lapis dari Along untuk semua sempena hari raya...hehe. Sudi2 lah bawa balik kad ini.... maaf ya, tak sempat nak berziarah ke rumah kawan2 semua untuk beri ucapan peribadi. Selepas raya nanti baru dapat kesempatan untuk kutip kad dari kekawan pula...

Semuga anda semua berbahgia di hari yang mulia ini. Yang nak balik kampung tu, berhati-hati di jalan raya. Along tak balik tahun ni, raya kat Sarawak....

Tapioca Kuih II ( Bingka Ubikayu II )

 Everyone is busy making Raya cookies and cakes and here I am still making kuih for Iftar....hehe. Anyway this kuih is really nice with soft & smooth texture and not too sweet. I made it last Friday to serve some friends who breaking-off fast with us. Most of them gave compliment for the kuih.

By: Roz@HomeKreation
Source: MamaHawa
Origin: Rozzan
Translated into English by HomeKreation
Recipe is reduced & retyped as below to fit smaller tin i.e. 8" sq
Size: 8" square
INGREDIENTS:
600g Grated Tapioca - strained & throw away starch
150g Sugar
1 tbsp Ghee 
2 Eggs
300ml Thick Coconut Milk
1 tbsp Pandan Paste
90ml Water
1/2 tsp Salt
Few drops Yellow Coloring (to ligten up the green color) 

METHOD:
1. Mix all in according to the above order.
2. Pour into an oiled pan.
3. Bake at 200C for 1 hour.
*******************************

BAHASA MALYSIA VERSION

Semua orang dok sibuk buat kuih raya, kita masih dok buat kuih buka puasa...hehe. Sedap kuih ni, rugi kalau tak cuba. Tekstur yg lembut & rasa yg sedap harum pandan.

By: AlongRoz@HomeKreation

Source: MamaHawa

Origin: Rozzan

Along kurangkan sukatan spt di bawah utk saiz tin yg tertera

Resipi di taip semula utk lebih ringkas

Saiz: 8" persegi

BAHAN2:

600g Ubikayu Parut - tapis & buang kanji nya

150g Gula

1 tbsp Minyak Sapi

2 bj Telur

300ml Santan Pekat

1 sbp Pes Pandan

90ml Air

1/2 st Garam

Beberapa titik Pewarna Kuning (utk mendapatkan warna hijau yg lebih menarik) 

CARA2:

1. Campurkan kesemua bhn2 menurut susunan di atas.

2. Tuangkan ke dlm tin yg di minyakkan.

3. Bakar 200C selama 1 jam.