Mitt Campaigns and Spends More in Swing States

The Economist reports that Mitt Romney, along with third party allies, have outspent Obama in most of the swing states, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. The notable exception is New Hampshire, in which Obama and allies spent approximately $16mil compared to $12mil for Romney and allies. All totaled, about $7.4 billion was spent on TV and radio ads for the 2012 election cycle. Additionally, Romney held more political events in key swing states, including Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio.

Demographics and Leanings of Nonvoters

By choosing not to vote, nonvoters will influence the upcoming election, but with a great deal of media attention on just who is voting, Pew Research Center releases a survey describing those who choose not to come to the polls.

Back in 2008, nonvoters made up 43% of the population of those who could vote.  The current nonvoting population, which strongly favors Obama at 59%, strongly differs from the likely voting population which is split at 47% for both candidates.

Independents make up the largest proportion of nonvoters with 44%, whereas only 27% of likely voters have described themselves as independent.  More Democrats than Republicans are nonvoters, 29% and 17% respectively, while they are locked in a near tie among the likely voting population, 35% and 34% respectively.

In addition, Pew released another table describing gender, religion, and income here.  Key notes show that those with higher incomes are more likely to be voters than nonvoters, that men are more likely than women to be considered as nonvoters, younger voters are more likely nonvoters, and that the category of nonvoters is more likely to be Hispanic.

Energy Independence in the United States

The backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States has enabled the American electorate to hear the candidates' opinions on the issues, one of them being energy policy. Both Republicans and Democrats agree that energy independence is important.  Such independence would protect the United States from the risk of energy supplies from abroad encountering disruptions.

The concensus on building a more energy independent country has been around for years, transcending entire administrations and congresses. Contrary to expectation, however, is that petroleum imports are much higher today than they were 40 years ago. Of all petroleum products consumed in this country, 60% of them come from abroad, compared to 40 years ago when roughly 38% of petroleum products came from foreign suppliers.


This graphic from Slate Magazine illustrates the growing trend of importing oil products since 1973, along with the goals of three different presidents to develop greater energy self reliance. Ultimately what it depicts is the failure in the present day to meet any of these goals.  Any conversation between the presidential candidates on energy independence might be unlikely to see significant followup action.

President Obama and Mitt Romney in Statistical Tie With 5 Months and Counting to Election Day

Gallup's Election 2012 poll has President Obama and Mitt Romney in a dead heat.  The President maintains only a one percentage point advantage with 46% of the vote to Romney's 45%.  However, the two are in a virtual tie, as the momentum has not quite shifted one way or the other over the past two months.  In fact, only rarely has the difference between the President Obama and Romney exceeded the margin of error.  Gallup also tracks the President's job approval rating at 47%.

Partisan Divide at 25-Year High

The Pew Research Center recently released a report on the growing partisan polarization in America.  Pew surveyed respondents for the past 25 years on 48 different political values measures.  Over the 48 questions, the average percentage-point difference between Republicans and Democrats was 18%, up from 10% a quarter-century ago.  Additionally, whereas other divides based on race, education, and income have remained stable, party differences have surged.  The issues that have contributed most to this increasing polarization are the social safety net, the environment, labor unions, equal opportunity, the scope and size of the government, and immigration.  The environment and the size of the government in particular have experienced the greatest shift in polarization; the percentage-point difference regarding the environment and size of government is 34% and 27% higher respectively than 25 years ago.  Perhaps this disparity is linked to another of Pew’s discoveries examining partisan identification.  When asked how they identify themselves, 68% of Republicans believed they were conservative, up from 60% in 2000. Additionally, 38% of Democrats felt they were liberal, up from 28% in 2000.

SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey Points to Minorities as Key Factor in 2012 Presidential Election

On May 1^st, SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey released a report for the Brookings Institution citing what he believes to be a key factor in the upcoming presidential election: the minority vote. The first aspect Dr. Frey highlights is the disparity between eligible voters and the total minority population.  For every 100 Hispanic residents in America, only 44 are eligible to vote, whereas for every 100 white residents, 78 are eligible to vote. 

Additionally, Dr. Frey points to the greatly increased voter turnout rate among minorities in 2008 compared to 2004.  Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians all experienced an increase in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, but what makes this trend significant is the fact that minorities overwhelmingly vote in favor of the Democratic candidate. 

Finally, Dr. Frey emphasizes the idea that "minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?"  To answer this key question, Dr. Frey illustrates three different scenarios, each taking into account different assumptions of white and minority voting patterns.

In the first scenario, Dr. Frey conducts a simulation based on the 2008 turnout and margins for whites and minorities.  In this scenario, President Obama would win the election handily, garnering 358 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 180 (270 is needed to win). 

The second scenario applies the 2004 turnout and margins for whites and minorities to the simulation.  In this situation, Governor Romney wins a neck and neck election, receiving 286 electoral votes to President Obama's 252. 

Lastly, Dr. Frey generates a third scenario, which takes into account the 2004 turnouts and margins for whites, and the 2008 turnouts and margins for minorities.  In this final scenario, President Obama receives 292 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 246. 

In the full report, Dr. Frey details the historical voting patterns of minorities, and he provides a more in depth look at what to expect for the minority influence on the 2012 election.  Finally, for more information on historical voting patterns among various demographics, SSDAN recently released a brief detailing voter turnout in the past half-century. 

Negative Press Coverage Plagues Front-Runner Romney

According to the Pew Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism, Mitt Romney is receiving more negative press coverage than at any other point in the GOP race.  Romney, who won the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, will compete against remaining GOP candidates in South Carolina's primary on Saturday.

According to Pew's analysis, this increase in negative coverage for Romney may reflect opponents' efforts to attack the current frontrunner through negative advertisements.  In particular, negative discourse regarding Romney revolved around his career at Bain Capital.  According to an article on the Politics and Government Blog of the New York Times, GOP candidate opponent Newt Gingrich described Romney's work at Bain as "rich people figuring out clever legal ways to loot a company."

According to the same report, Ron Paul is currently receiving more positive coverage than any other candidate.  Almost half of the coverage of Ron Paul over the past week has been positive; according to the report, Paul has been described in many press accounts as "having little chance of winning the nomination." 

Of all GOP candidates, Rick Perry currently is criticized the most, with his negative coverage nearly double his positive coverage.  Coverage of President Obama from January 9, 2012 to January, 15, 2012 included fewer positive mentions than any of the GOP candidates.  Only 10% of coverage regarding Obama was positive.  These data come from an analysis of more than 11,000 news websites and mentions on Twitter.

Pew: Public's Frustration with Congress Could Cost Republican Incumbents in 2012

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reports that "discontent with Congress has reached record levels, and the implications for incumbents in next year’s elections could be stark." Two-thirds of respondents say that "most" congressional members should be voted out of office in 2012, the highest percentage on record. And Americans are not very forgiving of their own; 33 percent say they do not want to see their own representatives reelected. According to Pew, this "matches the all-time high recorded in 2010, when fully 58 members of Congress lost reelection bids – the most in any election since 1948."

Survey results suggest that the American public is particularly frustrated with the Republican Party, and that Republican incumbents stand to lose the most from the public's discontent. Pew comments: "A record-high 50% say that the current Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses, and by nearly two-to-one (40% to 23%) more blame Republican leaders than Democratic leaders for this." Americans are critical of Republican leaders' political approach: "By wide margins, the GOP is seen as the party that is more extreme in its positions, less willing to work with the other side to get things done, and less honest and ethical in the way it governs. And for the first time in over two years, the Democratic Party has gained the edge as the party better able to manage the federal government."

Americans are not putting all the blame on Republicans, of course; they appear to be dissatisfied with Congress as a whole. Democrats survive with more approval than Republicans, but Americans still do not view them very favorably: "Just 31% approve of how Democratic congressional leaders have performed." Still, comparisons between the two parties do indicate that congressional Democrats are at the very least less-disliked than Republicans. For example, while a minority of Americans approve of Democratic congressmen, an even smaller percentage (21%) say they approve of the job Republican leaders have done. In addition, the Democratic Party has retained more support from its base: "While Democrats approve of the job their party’s leaders are doing by a 60% to 31% margin, only 49% of Republicans approve of the GOP leaders in Congress are doing, while 44% disapprove."

The negative Republican attitude differs from the recent historical trend; in recent election cycles, voters from the political party with a House majority say that a majority of congressional members should be reelected. Now, however, "seven-in-ten Republicans say most members of Congress should be replaced, as do 73% of independents and 60% of Democrats."

Americans largely single out current congressional members, and not the political system in which they serve, as the problem.  Pew writes: "In assessing Congress, 55% of the public says they think the system can work fine, it’s the members that are the problem. Just 32% say they think most members have good intentions but the political system is broken. The balance of opinion is virtually identical across party lines."

Independents do not express positive views toward either political party, but they are especially critical of Republicans. "By a 54% to 30% margin they say the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party, is more extreme in its positions, and they are twice as likely to label the Republicans than the Democrats as the less honest and ethical party (42% vs. 21%)."

If congressional members--particularly Republicans--hope to hold onto their jobs come 2012, it seems they will have a lot of work to do.

Pew report shows generation gap in 2012 election voting, though not as definitively as is suggested

The Pew Research Center released a report on age and voting trends this week, attempting to shed light on the potential effect of generation on votes in the 2012 presidential election. The unabridged study claims that "Millenial generation voters are inclined to back Barack Obama for reelection by a wide margin in a match-up against Mitt Romney," whereas Silent generation voters strongly back Romney and Generation X and Baby Boomers hold mixed opinions.

The report certainly highlights the current national public opinion amongst varying age groups. However, the graph included in the brief summary presents the data in a misleading format. Although the data points before 2012 show national exit poll data, the 2012 points show "2012 preference based on registered voters." While this may indicate the trend we may observe next year, the predictive 2012 points are misleadingly placed in the same series as more concrete data from past elections. A number of factors (such as get-out-the-vote and campaigning efforts) could influence the so-called "young-old voting gap" in the twelve months leading up to the presidential election. In addition, the Young-Old Gap figures are presented in a confusing, unexplained format. However, Pew's extended report discusses an issue that is at the forefront of much recent election research: divided public opinion in a potential Obama-Romney general election.

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Survey Shows Little Excitement for Republican Candidates

In this report about the Republican candidates for the upcoming 2012 election, a survey was done to find out who the most popular candidate is so far. The results showed that there is no clear-cut favorite. Participants were first asked if they had heard of each candidate, and then asked if there was a good chance, some chance, or no chance that they would vote for them. The top three that people had heard of were Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. Of those, 17% said there was a good chance that they would vote for Mitt Romney, 14% would vote for Sarah Palin, and only 9% would vote for Newt Gingrich. 23% said there was a good chance that they would vote for Herman Cain, but that is out of the 33% people had actually heard of him. When the same survey was analysed using only responses from republican voters, the results were similar, with Mitt Romney taking the lead.

Another part of the survey was about the traits that people like and dislike in presidential candidates. Almost half of the people surveyed are more likely to support a candidate that had served in the military. Other favorable qualities include having been a governor or a business executive. Most people are less likely to support candidates that have never held an elected office, and 61% would be less likely to support a candidate that does not believe in God. Traits that most people agree would make no difference in how they vote include being a woman, black, or hispanic, and having been divorced. Having used marijuana in the past, being Mormon, or being homosexual are also traits that many say would not sway their vote.

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Obama's Higher Approval Rating Not Translating into Improved 2012 Prospects

As has already been mentioned on this blog, polling three days after the death of Osama Bin Laden revealed a six-percent increase in President Obama's approval rating. But according to a recent Gallup article, increased approval of President Obama's job performance has not improved the President's chances at re-election in 2012. Among registered voters, 43% said they were more likely to vote for President Obama over an unnamed Republican, while 40% said they were more likely to choose the Republican over Obama. These results are essentially unchanged--the difference being statistically insignificant--from the 41% of registered voters who said in April that they were more likely to vote for Obama.Because Republicans--and to a lesser degree independents--provided most of the boost in Obama's approval rating following Bin Laden's death, more registered voters may approve more highly of Obama without lending him their support over a Republican in the 2012 election. According to Gallup, while Bin Laden's death improved many Republicans' views of the President, it "convinced few in this largely conservative voting bloc to switch sides in the 2012 general election."

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