Americans Pessimistic About Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

With the fiscal cliff looming just weeks away, the Pew Research Center released a poll reflecting the public's concerns regarding the ongoing negotiations between the White House and Republican Congressmen. 40% of Americans believe lawmakers will reach a deal before the January 1^st deadline, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases take effect.  49% believe no deal will come to fruition, hurling the U.S. over the fiscal cliff – something many experts believe will drag the economy into another recession.  If no deal is reached, 53% of the public said they'd blame Republican Congressmen, and just 27% would place blame on President Obama.  Democrats are more optimistic about negotiations, with 55% saying they expect a deal to emerge before the New Year, compared with just 22% of Republicans

Buffet Rule Favored by 60% of Americans

According to a recent poll conducted by Gallup, a majority of Americans favor the Buffet Rule, a measure that would impose that households with an income of $1 million or more pay at least 30% in taxes. Despite the fact that the majority of Americans approve of the rule, the public remains largely divided along party lines. More than 50% of both Democrats and Independents favor the rule, while only 43% of Republicans do. Additionally, although there appears to be broad public support for implementing the rule, the public does view it as a priority. When respondents were asked what should be the country’s biggest concern, less than 1% cited the growing income disparity between Americans as the most important issue. 

Congress' Approval Ratings Remain Low

Gallup reports that Americans continue to retain an unfavorable view of Congress.  Congress’ approval rating is 12%, up from an all-time low of 10% in February, but remaining at 15% or less since last August.  Americans’ unfavorable view of Congress is even more apparent when taking into account that 82% now disapprove of Congress.  In addition, Gallup also notes that while in the past, party differences could be seen in Congress’ approval ratings, today, both Republicans and Democrats view Congress with a similarly unenthusiastic 12% approval rating.  

Pew: Public's Frustration with Congress Could Cost Republican Incumbents in 2012

The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press reports that "discontent with Congress has reached record levels, and the implications for incumbents in next year’s elections could be stark." Two-thirds of respondents say that "most" congressional members should be voted out of office in 2012, the highest percentage on record. And Americans are not very forgiving of their own; 33 percent say they do not want to see their own representatives reelected. According to Pew, this "matches the all-time high recorded in 2010, when fully 58 members of Congress lost reelection bids – the most in any election since 1948."

Survey results suggest that the American public is particularly frustrated with the Republican Party, and that Republican incumbents stand to lose the most from the public's discontent. Pew comments: "A record-high 50% say that the current Congress has accomplished less than other recent Congresses, and by nearly two-to-one (40% to 23%) more blame Republican leaders than Democratic leaders for this." Americans are critical of Republican leaders' political approach: "By wide margins, the GOP is seen as the party that is more extreme in its positions, less willing to work with the other side to get things done, and less honest and ethical in the way it governs. And for the first time in over two years, the Democratic Party has gained the edge as the party better able to manage the federal government."

Americans are not putting all the blame on Republicans, of course; they appear to be dissatisfied with Congress as a whole. Democrats survive with more approval than Republicans, but Americans still do not view them very favorably: "Just 31% approve of how Democratic congressional leaders have performed." Still, comparisons between the two parties do indicate that congressional Democrats are at the very least less-disliked than Republicans. For example, while a minority of Americans approve of Democratic congressmen, an even smaller percentage (21%) say they approve of the job Republican leaders have done. In addition, the Democratic Party has retained more support from its base: "While Democrats approve of the job their party’s leaders are doing by a 60% to 31% margin, only 49% of Republicans approve of the GOP leaders in Congress are doing, while 44% disapprove."

The negative Republican attitude differs from the recent historical trend; in recent election cycles, voters from the political party with a House majority say that a majority of congressional members should be reelected. Now, however, "seven-in-ten Republicans say most members of Congress should be replaced, as do 73% of independents and 60% of Democrats."

Americans largely single out current congressional members, and not the political system in which they serve, as the problem.  Pew writes: "In assessing Congress, 55% of the public says they think the system can work fine, it’s the members that are the problem. Just 32% say they think most members have good intentions but the political system is broken. The balance of opinion is virtually identical across party lines."

Independents do not express positive views toward either political party, but they are especially critical of Republicans. "By a 54% to 30% margin they say the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party, is more extreme in its positions, and they are twice as likely to label the Republicans than the Democrats as the less honest and ethical party (42% vs. 21%)."

If congressional members--particularly Republicans--hope to hold onto their jobs come 2012, it seems they will have a lot of work to do.

Pew Study Reveals Hows Well Americans Follow Current Events

Pew Research Center's most recent News IQ survey explores how knowledgeable Americans are regarding current events. The 19-question survey ranged from identifying country maps to recognizing prominent US government officials such as the Secretary of State and Speaker of the House of Representatives. (To test yourself against the results Pew found before reading the summary, follow this link.)



Respondents correctly answered visual questions more often than verbal questions, and scored particularly well when asked to identify prominent political figures. 82% of respondents correctly identified US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, 79% recognized former Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi, and 70% recognized Charmain of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke.


Respondents performed worst when asked to name the British Prime Minister (only 38% correctly chose David Cameron) and when asked to identify the universal symbol of Islam (42%).

Unlike previous surveys, respondents performed significantly differently depending on partisan affiliation. Pew reports: "On 13 out of the 19 questions, Republicans score significantly higher than Democrats and there are no questions on which Democrats did better than Republicans." Republicans were understandably more able to identify that the Republican Party has a majority in the House of Representatives (59% to Democrat's 40%) and that the elephant is a symbol of the GOP (87% to 69%). Republicans were 17 points more likely to identify Greece's debt troubles and 16 points more likely to identify Israel on a map of the Mideast.

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Congressional Approval Rate Falls to 17%

According to June 9-12 polling by Gallup, Congress' approval rate has dropped seven points since May, to 17%. A rate of 17% is closer to poll results in March and April, when it was at 18% and 17%, respectively, and it continues--as it has since January 2010--to register below 25%. Although the survey was conducted during the Anthony Weiner scandal, Gallup proposes that the decline "more likely reflects the end of the rally in support for the government after the death of Osama bin Laden."

Gallup has been measuring American approval of Congress since 1974; in that time, the smallest percentage of Americans who approved of Congress' job performance was recorded this past December, when the approval rate fell to 13%. Since 1974, the congressional approval rate has only fallen below 17% three times, all in the past three years and a signal, according to Gallup, of "the recent negative turn in Americans' views of Congress."At 25%, Democrats are more likely to approve of Congress than Republicans (14%) or independents (13%), but approval rates are low among all three groups. Writes Gallup: "Unless conditions in the United States improve and Americans become more charitable in their ratings of Congress, the 2012 elections may result in another shake-up in Congress' membership, although with divided control of the legislative branch, it is not clear which party would be hurt more."

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