Can Obama's second term outperform his first?

On President Obama’s inauguration day for his second term, the Economist explores the economic performance of two-term presidents since the start of the 20^th century.  A range of sources measured performance according to industrial production, federal debt, GDP, stock market, household income, unemployment rate, and real house prices.  The overall score of each president’s second term decreases by an average of 4.2 percentage points from their first term score.

Don’t write off Obama’s second term yet, though.  Franklin Roosevelt’s highly successful New Deal policies in his first term led to a substantially lower relative second term, and three of the eleven two-term presidents (including most recent Democratic president Bill Clinton) had higher economic performances in their second terms.

Americans Pessimistic About Fiscal Cliff Negotiations

With the fiscal cliff looming just weeks away, the Pew Research Center released a poll reflecting the public's concerns regarding the ongoing negotiations between the White House and Republican Congressmen. 40% of Americans believe lawmakers will reach a deal before the January 1^st deadline, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases take effect.  49% believe no deal will come to fruition, hurling the U.S. over the fiscal cliff – something many experts believe will drag the economy into another recession.  If no deal is reached, 53% of the public said they'd blame Republican Congressmen, and just 27% would place blame on President Obama.  Democrats are more optimistic about negotiations, with 55% saying they expect a deal to emerge before the New Year, compared with just 22% of Republicans

Strong Latino Vote for Obama

In an analysis of exit polls conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, Barack Obama carried 71% of the Latino vote in Tuesday’s election.  While Democratic candidates have long held an advantage with the Latino electorate, Obama had the second highest advantage with 44% more Latino votes than Mitt Romney.  Bill Clinton takes top billing with the highest advantage among Latinos in 1996 (51%), while the Democratic candidate with the lowest advantage was John Kerry in 2004 (18%).

In addition, the 2012 Presidential race shows more Hispanic support for Obama than 2008, up eight points since the 2008 election.  Also of note, the Hispanic electorate is growing (Latinos made up 8% of the population in 2008, 10% in 2012), making them a salient group of voters in the battleground states of Florida, Nevada and Colorado.  In each of these states, Latino voters comprised more of the voting population than in 2008, up one point in Colorado, two points in Arizona, and three points in Florida.

Other interesting trends within the Latino population show that Hispanic women favored Obama as compared to men (76% to 65%); younger Hispanics were more inclined than older Latinos to vote for Obama (18-29 at 74%, 65+ at 65%); Hispanics will no college degree voted Democrat more than college graduates (75% to 62%); those who made less than $50,000 a favored Democrats more than those who earned above $50,000 (82% to 59%).

Demographics and Leanings of Nonvoters

By choosing not to vote, nonvoters will influence the upcoming election, but with a great deal of media attention on just who is voting, Pew Research Center releases a survey describing those who choose not to come to the polls.

Back in 2008, nonvoters made up 43% of the population of those who could vote.  The current nonvoting population, which strongly favors Obama at 59%, strongly differs from the likely voting population which is split at 47% for both candidates.

Independents make up the largest proportion of nonvoters with 44%, whereas only 27% of likely voters have described themselves as independent.  More Democrats than Republicans are nonvoters, 29% and 17% respectively, while they are locked in a near tie among the likely voting population, 35% and 34% respectively.

In addition, Pew released another table describing gender, religion, and income here.  Key notes show that those with higher incomes are more likely to be voters than nonvoters, that men are more likely than women to be considered as nonvoters, younger voters are more likely nonvoters, and that the category of nonvoters is more likely to be Hispanic.

Presidential Race Polling Very Close

With the election looming just two weeks away, and the final debate between President Barack Obama and his challenger Mitt Romney in the books, the focus turns to polls.  The race has tightened in recent weeks, especially in the key battleground states of Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. The President carried all these states in his win over Senator John McCain in the 2008 election, though polls indicate the 2012 election will be much closer, particularly in the previously mentioned battleground states.  While the President maintained an early advantage in Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado, recent polls in these states place the two candidates in a near deadlocked battle.  Mitt Romney has retained a slight lead in Florida, arguably the most important battleground state, over the past month.

The Economist has compiled an election season map, with polling details for each state.  Based on the most recent polling results President Obama possesses 253 likely Electoral College votes (17 shy of the 270 necessary for victory) to Mitt Romney's 191. However, there are still 94 votes from battleground states that are up in the air.  Should Mitt Romney hold onto his lead in Florida, he would receive 29 votes - the third most for any state.  This would leave him 50 votes shy of victory with 65 votes still on the table.  While Florida represents the most votes for any battleground state, Ohio may yet be the most important.  If the President takes Ohio along with the other 253 likely Obama votes, he surpasses the 270 vote mark with a single vote to spare.  A recent Quinnipiac Poll gives the President a five-point lead in Ohio, and he's led the state in most polls throughout the past two months.  

Health Spending Represents 17.9% of GDP

The California Health Care Foundation recently released its 2012 report on health care costs.  The report illustrates how America pays for its health care, as well as how these costs have evolved over the past half-century.  In 1960, health spending represented just 5.2% of GDP.  By 2010, that proportion ballooned to 17.9%.  Per capita spending has experienced an even more dramatic increase.  In 2000, health spending per capita was $4,878, but after just a decade, that figure rose to $8,402.  Compared to other countries, the U.S. spends far more on health care both per capita and as a percentage of its GDP.  Switzerland’s $5,270 spent on health care per capita makes the nation a distant second to the U.S. in health spending.

Over the past 50 years, the question of who foots the health care bill has constantly changed.  In 1960, the bulk of health care funds came from out-of-pocket spending. Today, however, government programs like Medicare and Medicaid along with private insurance cover the majority of costs, and hospital care, physician and clinical services, and prescription drugs all necessitate far less out-of-pocket spending.  For instance, in 1960, nearly all of the money for prescription drug costs (96%) came from the consumers’ pockets.  In 2010, out-of-pocket spending accounted for just 19% of the expenditures. 

Two-Thirds of Americans Hold Favorable View of President Clinton

President Bill Clinton’s approval rating has reached its highest point yet.  According to Gallup, 66% of Americans hold a favorable view of the ex-President, twenty points higher than President Obama’s approval rating.  And while President Clinton enjoys widespread favorability among his Democratic base - with 90% of Democrats holding a favorable opinion of Clinton - the historically moderate Democrat also won over many Republicans: 44% view President Clinton favorably.

Supreme Court Decision on the Affordable Care Act Projected to Save Federal Government $84 Billion

In an articlefor the New York Times, author Robert Pear dissected the Congressional Budget Office’s revised estimates on the effects of the Affordable Care Act after the landmark Supreme Court decision to uphold the law.  A key portion of the decision alters the legislation to permit States to opt out of the proposed Medicaid expansion.  The CBO predicts that an additional 3 million people will now go without health insurance due to this new aspect of the law, but the agency also expects the federal government should save approximately $84 billion over the next 11 years.  The Affordable Care Act is still projected to provide coverage to 30 million of the 60 million presently uninsured Americans at a price tag of $1.7 trillion over the course of 11 years.  The bulk of the cost emerges after 2014, when many provisions of the Affordable Care Act will take effect.  

Fighting AIDS Worldwide

On July 19^th, The Economist highlighted a report from UNAIDS, a United Nations Agency with the goal of fighting AIDS.  AIDS-related deaths surged upwards from 1990 to its peak in 2005 of 2.3 million per year, but since then, the number of those who have lost their lives to the virus have dropped off.  The decrease in deaths can be partially attributed to the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PREFAR), which President Bush initiated in 2003 and President Obama renewed in 2008.  Since then, the number of people receiving antiretroviral medication has dramatically increased; the figure stands at over 8 million in poorer regions of the world.  Today, while AIDS remains a serious crisis, the number of AIDS-related deaths has fallen to 1.7 million, a level unseen since 2000.

President Obama and Mitt Romney in Statistical Tie With 5 Months and Counting to Election Day

Gallup's Election 2012 poll has President Obama and Mitt Romney in a dead heat.  The President maintains only a one percentage point advantage with 46% of the vote to Romney's 45%.  However, the two are in a virtual tie, as the momentum has not quite shifted one way or the other over the past two months.  In fact, only rarely has the difference between the President Obama and Romney exceeded the margin of error.  Gallup also tracks the President's job approval rating at 47%.

Partisan Divide at 25-Year High

The Pew Research Center recently released a report on the growing partisan polarization in America.  Pew surveyed respondents for the past 25 years on 48 different political values measures.  Over the 48 questions, the average percentage-point difference between Republicans and Democrats was 18%, up from 10% a quarter-century ago.  Additionally, whereas other divides based on race, education, and income have remained stable, party differences have surged.  The issues that have contributed most to this increasing polarization are the social safety net, the environment, labor unions, equal opportunity, the scope and size of the government, and immigration.  The environment and the size of the government in particular have experienced the greatest shift in polarization; the percentage-point difference regarding the environment and size of government is 34% and 27% higher respectively than 25 years ago.  Perhaps this disparity is linked to another of Pew’s discoveries examining partisan identification.  When asked how they identify themselves, 68% of Republicans believed they were conservative, up from 60% in 2000. Additionally, 38% of Democrats felt they were liberal, up from 28% in 2000.

In Response to Gay Marriage Support, 1 in 4 Americans View the President Less Favorably

Following President Obama’s endorsement of legalized gay marriage, the Pew Research Center released a survey on how the announcement has affected Americans’ opinions of the President.  Overall, 52% say their opinion has not changed, 25% say they now view the President less favorably, and 19% say they view the President more favorably.  Many in the media suspected the African American community’s support of President Obama would decrease; however, the survey shows that 68% of African Americans were unaffected by the announcement, 16% view the President more favorably, and 13% view the President less favorably.  Among young adults ages 18-29, and adults aged 30-49, 22% view the President more favorably.  These two age groups were the most likely age groups to view the President more favorably with the announcement.  Among seniors aged 65 and over, 42% now view the President less favorably.

Obama Loses Latino Approval with Rise in Deportations

The majority of Latinos in the United States oppose the way in which the Obama administration is addressing the deportation of illegal immigrants, according to a survey conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center.   

Since 2009, under President Obama, deportations have increased to an annual average of 400,000.  This represents a 30% increase in annual average of deportations since the second term of the Bush administration and is almost double the annual average of deportations during the first term of the Bush administration. 

A vast majority (81%) of the 11.2 million immigrants in the United States without authorization are of Hispanic origin.  Individuals of Hispanic origin constitute an even larger percentage of deported unauthorized immigrants, with 97% of those deported in 2010 identifying as having Hispanic origin. 

Not all Latinos are cognizant of the increase in deportations during Obama's presidency.  A little over a third of Latinos polled (36%) responded that the Bush administration deported about the same number of immigrants as the Obama administration deports currently.  Fewer than half of the Latinos polled reported knowledge of the increase in deportations under the Obama administration; 41% claimed that deportations had increased during Obama's presidency.

Foreign-born Hispanics are much more likely than native-born Hispanics to be aware of the increase in deportations since Obama assumed office.  Whereas 55% of foreign-born Hispanics were aware of this trend, only 25% of native-born Hispanics were.  Awareness of the increase in deportations is most prevalent among Hispanic individuals who have greater chances of being deported.  Almost three-quarters of Hispanic immigrants who do not have United States citizenship or a green card, a population with a high risk of being deported, are aware that deportations have increased under the Obama administration.

Those who disapprove of Obama's policy are likely to be those who are aware that deportations have increased under the Obama administration.