Approval Rates of Black and White Marriage

A recent article from Gallup based on their Minority Rights and Relations poll, conducted June 13-July 5 which surveyed 4,373 Americans, including 1,010 non-Hispanic Blacks reports one of the largest shifts of public opinion in Gallup history, 87% of Americans now favor marriage between Blacks and Whites, up from 4% in 1958. The report explained its findings:

Approval of marriages between Blacks and Whites is up one percentage point from 2011, when this attitude was last measured. Approval has generally increased in a linear fashion from Gallup's first measure in 1958, reaching the majority threshold in 1997, and crossing the three-quarters line in 2004. Eleven percent of Americans today say they disapprove of Black-White marriage, compared with 94% who disapproved in 1958.

Blacks' approval of Black-White marriage (96%) is now nearly universal, while Whites' approval is 12 percentage points lower, at 84%. Blacks' approval has consistently been higher than Whites' over the decades, although attitudes among both racial groups have generally moved in a parallel manner since 1968, when Gallup was first able to report reliable estimates of each group's opinion. The gap between Black approval and White approval in recent years has been smaller than it was prior to 1997.

Read the full article here:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/163697/approve-marriage-blacks-whites.aspx

SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey Points to Minorities as Key Factor in 2012 Presidential Election

On May 1^st, SSDAN Director Dr. William H. Frey released a report for the Brookings Institution citing what he believes to be a key factor in the upcoming presidential election: the minority vote. The first aspect Dr. Frey highlights is the disparity between eligible voters and the total minority population.  For every 100 Hispanic residents in America, only 44 are eligible to vote, whereas for every 100 white residents, 78 are eligible to vote. 

Additionally, Dr. Frey points to the greatly increased voter turnout rate among minorities in 2008 compared to 2004.  Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians all experienced an increase in voter turnout between 2004 and 2008, but what makes this trend significant is the fact that minorities overwhelmingly vote in favor of the Democratic candidate. 

Finally, Dr. Frey emphasizes the idea that "minorities will account for a slightly larger share of eligible voters than in 2008. At the same time, white support for the Republican candidate may be greater than in 2008. Which dynamic will prevail?"  To answer this key question, Dr. Frey illustrates three different scenarios, each taking into account different assumptions of white and minority voting patterns.

In the first scenario, Dr. Frey conducts a simulation based on the 2008 turnout and margins for whites and minorities.  In this scenario, President Obama would win the election handily, garnering 358 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 180 (270 is needed to win). 

The second scenario applies the 2004 turnout and margins for whites and minorities to the simulation.  In this situation, Governor Romney wins a neck and neck election, receiving 286 electoral votes to President Obama's 252. 

Lastly, Dr. Frey generates a third scenario, which takes into account the 2004 turnouts and margins for whites, and the 2008 turnouts and margins for minorities.  In this final scenario, President Obama receives 292 electoral votes to Governor Romney's 246. 

In the full report, Dr. Frey details the historical voting patterns of minorities, and he provides a more in depth look at what to expect for the minority influence on the 2012 election.  Finally, for more information on historical voting patterns among various demographics, SSDAN recently released a brief detailing voter turnout in the past half-century.