Portal for iPhone
Safari for iOS is good. Very good, even! But you might want an alternative%26mdash;an extremely sexy alternative. But useful, too! Like a Hooters waitress who also teaches physics! And is a web browser.
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iPhone
Portal for iPhone
Safari for iOS is good. Very good, even! But you might want an alternative%26mdash;an extremely sexy alternative. But useful, too! Like a Hooters waitress who also teaches physics! And is a web browser.
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A New Approach
by Virgil Carter, Editor
Welcome to the Plexus Blog! Welcome to a new approach to share and explore important issues in non-profit and public sector leadership.
The purpose of the new blog is to provide an electronic “home” to engage and share in discussions about emerging issues, key ideas and visions, and significant challenges and successes facing organizations, large and small, in the non-profit and public sector. The new approach will offer weekly articles by recognized and respected CEOs and senior staff. Each week a new article will be published by an invited author that will highlight an important issue facing non-profit and public sector organizations.
Registered readers will be able to comment and discuss the articles with the authors and other readers. Over time, we expect the blog to become a “must read” for organizational leaders who are looking to share ideas and experiences as a means of learning with colleagues.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that our goal is to attract conversations about key issues with the best and the brightest in our field!
How will this blog differ from the many others on the Internet? Our blog will focus on original articles by invited authors, and reader discussions, intended to stimulate critical thinking and discussion about many of the emerging issues, major ideas, challenges and successes facing association leaders. We’re interested in what lies ahead—the opportunities for leadership and improvement. Our goal is for the blog to be a repository of issues, ideas and experiences that can be shared with colleagues for the benefit of all.
What can you do to participate? If you have an idea for an article, let me hear from you via email at virgilcarter@comcast.net
If you want to share your thoughts, just register and respond to one of the weekly postings.
Welcome! Your suggestions and ideas are invited. Help us make this new approach valuable to you and your colleagues. Actively join us in this new approach!
Welcome to the Plexus Blog! Welcome to a new approach to share and explore important issues in non-profit and public sector leadership.
The purpose of the new blog is to provide an electronic “home” to engage and share in discussions about emerging issues, key ideas and visions, and significant challenges and successes facing organizations, large and small, in the non-profit and public sector. The new approach will offer weekly articles by recognized and respected CEOs and senior staff. Each week a new article will be published by an invited author that will highlight an important issue facing non-profit and public sector organizations.
Registered readers will be able to comment and discuss the articles with the authors and other readers. Over time, we expect the blog to become a “must read” for organizational leaders who are looking to share ideas and experiences as a means of learning with colleagues.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that our goal is to attract conversations about key issues with the best and the brightest in our field!
How will this blog differ from the many others on the Internet? Our blog will focus on original articles by invited authors, and reader discussions, intended to stimulate critical thinking and discussion about many of the emerging issues, major ideas, challenges and successes facing association leaders. We’re interested in what lies ahead—the opportunities for leadership and improvement. Our goal is for the blog to be a repository of issues, ideas and experiences that can be shared with colleagues for the benefit of all.
What can you do to participate? If you have an idea for an article, let me hear from you via email at virgilcarter@comcast.net
If you want to share your thoughts, just register and respond to one of the weekly postings.
Welcome! Your suggestions and ideas are invited. Help us make this new approach valuable to you and your colleagues. Actively join us in this new approach!
Hatch's Record: A FCINO "Demon Sheep" Responsible For The Debt Threat
Responsibility Placed For Our National Debt Threat
With the Federal Reserve now monetizing our $14T debt, it is clear we are on the morning of a major economic downtown with high probabilities of hyperinflation, a downgraded of our bond rating, and/or removal of the dollar as being the world's reserve currency. Any one of these three threats would cause a greater financial disaster than the current recession we have; all three are well on their way to becoming reality. This crisis was caused by individual members and leaders of both parties in Congress over decades of undisciplined spending and earmarks, and of recent note includes signatures on bills from both Presidents Bush and Obama.
Spending Cuts: The Only Solution to Our Debt Crisis
No longer is terrorism my foremost concern for the defense of our country: it is instead the defense of our economic system which can ONLY be resolved through massive spending reduction. Democrats might agree on principles that the debt is a threat, but more often than not their solution is to raise taxes. My counter is that the population is already overtaxed and historically governments have been overthrown for less taxation than we are already suffering. Additionally, both Republicans and Democrats have proved time after time that increased taxation is a "green light" for them to increase spending. This would only exacerbate the problem.
So we must cut. We have to cut everything if we are to have any chance late in this fourth quarter of avoiding looming economic disaster. Entitlements including Social Security and Medicare, defense spending, earmarks, and even petty things like Obama's staff and innumerable czars have to take net hits. Fresh-faced Republicans in the 112th Congress get it and have proposed $2.5T in cuts over 10 years. This is a superb start and so much better than the spending spree of the Democrats, yet hardly enough to balance the budget or avert financialgeddon. I support these cuts, but demand more--much more. We must balance the budget within four years like McCain promised during the 2008 debates (NY Times transcript).
While the House is on to the gig, the Senate is way behind. And the finger must be pointed at fiscal liberals who have helped create this disaster--and that includes our current Senator Orrin Hatch. I have already documented that Hatch has contributed to the problem through his prolific earmarking (see "Hatch Opposes His Own Earmarks", "Hatch Proposes UTOPIA Bailout", Dec 2010).
Hatch's FCINO Record
When Hatch was sworn into office in January 1977, our entire national debt was a mere $0.6T (publicdebt.treas.gov, Wikipedia)--less that the widely-unsuccessful spending aka "stimulus" bill passed in 2009 to defibrillate our economy. Currently the national debt stands over 20 times greater at $14T. By no means is Hatch singlehandedly responsible for this debt, yet the impression of many a Republican in Utah is that Hatch has tried to stem the inevitable tide of Democratic Big Government. If that were true, I'd argue that given 34 years, Hatch has been pretty ineffective in averting economic disaster and we should pass the reigns to another.
Instead of being the chief scissors-operator some GOP Utahns believe he his, Hatch has been hiding his spending ways to his constituency behind his FCINO Demon Sheep clothing (Campaign Ad, Carly Fiorina 2010). Take as evidence the Political Courage Test sponsored by the non-partisan, non-profit Project Vote Smart (PVS): Hatch refuses to participate to let us know where he stands.
1 As background, in 2000 our national debt stood at a breathtaking $5T: to any professed fiscal conservative this is a massive, multi-bell alarm to cut spending, a firestorm out of control.
With the Federal Reserve now monetizing our $14T debt, it is clear we are on the morning of a major economic downtown with high probabilities of hyperinflation, a downgraded of our bond rating, and/or removal of the dollar as being the world's reserve currency. Any one of these three threats would cause a greater financial disaster than the current recession we have; all three are well on their way to becoming reality. This crisis was caused by individual members and leaders of both parties in Congress over decades of undisciplined spending and earmarks, and of recent note includes signatures on bills from both Presidents Bush and Obama.
Spending Cuts: The Only Solution to Our Debt Crisis
No longer is terrorism my foremost concern for the defense of our country: it is instead the defense of our economic system which can ONLY be resolved through massive spending reduction. Democrats might agree on principles that the debt is a threat, but more often than not their solution is to raise taxes. My counter is that the population is already overtaxed and historically governments have been overthrown for less taxation than we are already suffering. Additionally, both Republicans and Democrats have proved time after time that increased taxation is a "green light" for them to increase spending. This would only exacerbate the problem.
So we must cut. We have to cut everything if we are to have any chance late in this fourth quarter of avoiding looming economic disaster. Entitlements including Social Security and Medicare, defense spending, earmarks, and even petty things like Obama's staff and innumerable czars have to take net hits. Fresh-faced Republicans in the 112th Congress get it and have proposed $2.5T in cuts over 10 years. This is a superb start and so much better than the spending spree of the Democrats, yet hardly enough to balance the budget or avert financialgeddon. I support these cuts, but demand more--much more. We must balance the budget within four years like McCain promised during the 2008 debates (NY Times transcript).
While the House is on to the gig, the Senate is way behind. And the finger must be pointed at fiscal liberals who have helped create this disaster--and that includes our current Senator Orrin Hatch. I have already documented that Hatch has contributed to the problem through his prolific earmarking (see "Hatch Opposes His Own Earmarks", "Hatch Proposes UTOPIA Bailout", Dec 2010).
Hatch's FCINO Record
When Hatch was sworn into office in January 1977, our entire national debt was a mere $0.6T (publicdebt.treas.gov, Wikipedia)--less that the widely-unsuccessful spending aka "stimulus" bill passed in 2009 to defibrillate our economy. Currently the national debt stands over 20 times greater at $14T. By no means is Hatch singlehandedly responsible for this debt, yet the impression of many a Republican in Utah is that Hatch has tried to stem the inevitable tide of Democratic Big Government. If that were true, I'd argue that given 34 years, Hatch has been pretty ineffective in averting economic disaster and we should pass the reigns to another.
Instead of being the chief scissors-operator some GOP Utahns believe he his, Hatch has been hiding his spending ways to his constituency behind his FCINO Demon Sheep clothing (Campaign Ad, Carly Fiorina 2010). Take as evidence the Political Courage Test sponsored by the non-partisan, non-profit Project Vote Smart (PVS): Hatch refuses to participate to let us know where he stands.
"Senator Orrin G. Hatch repeatedly refused to provide any responses to citizens on issues through the 2006 National Political Awareness Test." (PVS, Issues Positions)
If Hatch were a fiscal conservative, then to a Utah electorate he should be unafraid to tout his fiscal conservancy and ideas for cutting the budget to reduce the deficit. Hatch's problem is that he's a fiscal liberal who won't find major areas of the budget to cut. This is evidenced by Hatch's response to the PVS "Presidential Election 2000 National Political Awareness Test" where he did reveal his fiscal preferences.
The 2000 PVS Test1 questioned candidates on 13 areas of the budget asking them to identify on a five-point scale from "greatly decrease" to "greatly increase" where they stood with funding. Hatch's revealing answers to this test precluded a single area of the budget for cuts. (Orrin Hatch, 2000 PVS Test Responses) Indeed, coupled with areas of desired fiscal expansion, Hatch's responses would be indicative of an expansion of the budget, not a retraction. In further support of this claim, the PVS Test gave Hatch an opportunity to list "Other" areas of the budget he could elaborate on response and Hatch declined to do so, thus leaving the foregone conclusion that Hatch wanted to increase the budget, a tenant of fiscal liberalism.
The Balanced Budget Amendment: Hatch's Signature Sheep's Cloth
Hatch's signature sheep's cloth is his longstanding support for a Balanced Budget Amendment. While such is a commendable good start and one I support, as evidenced above Hatch has long ignored his own constitutional budget duties to walk the talk and pass responsible budgets within the current scope of the constitution. If the answer to Congressional spending relies uniquely upon a Balanced Budget Amendment as Hatch's record points to, I predict fiscal failure for our country before we get around to it. Hatch has been trying fairly unabatedly for the past three decades to get it through Congress--including a time when Republicans held majorities in both houses. Were even Congressional passage to occur, 3/4 of the states would still have to pass--a process historically taking years at best.
Hatch's support for the Amendment provides what he thinks is cover for his well-documented spending spree and fiscal liberalism. I believe Hatch's sheepskin is rapidly falling off revealing a FCINO to his Utah constituency rightfully panicked by an inescapable debt.
1 As background, in 2000 our national debt stood at a breathtaking $5T: to any professed fiscal conservative this is a massive, multi-bell alarm to cut spending, a firestorm out of control.
Where's Waldo
I have been trying some new page elements on my blog, but last week I couldn't get blogger to use the right size for my header photo. It was either too big to fit on the page, or it was thumbnail sized. Today, it's kind of in between. Mind you, I haven't changed anything. Blogger seems to have a gremlin.
For readers not from Brigham City or the surrounding communities, see if you can find the "B" in the header picture. Just like the kids' book of Where's Waldo. Where's the "B"?
For readers not from Brigham City or the surrounding communities, see if you can find the "B" in the header picture. Just like the kids' book of Where's Waldo. Where's the "B"?
Saturday Drive
I went for a drive yesterday to escape the inversion. I thought if I could get up high enough, I might break through the fog and see the sun! Yes, the sun was in Mantua. It was very cold but seeing the sun felt good. Sometimes, I wonder how my ancestors coped with the long winters in Northern Europe. They didn't have much choice and at least I have electric lights and central heat. Still I dream of palm trees and sandy beaches.
 |
| Leaving the inversion and approaching Mantua |
 |
| Mantua Reservoir frozen over |
Week 27
This was a week of more inversions, as you can see from the overcast in the pictures I took today. Fortunately, the construction work continues. This has become one thing that I really look forward to each week.
 | |
| South side of the Temple showing the underground parking structure & reinforcing steel |
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| North underground parking structure and reinforcing steel |
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| Reinforcing steel for the south underground parking |
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We're starting a new series at TUAW called "My favorite 3 iPhone apps" -- and to kick it off, we're starting with rapper T-Pain. We caught up with the AutoTune master himself at CES promoting the I Am T-pain microphone, based on the ...
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On real GDP growth in the US
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov) has reported an estimate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010. Accordingly, a new estimate of the growth rate in 2010 is available. It looks not so bad: +2.9% per year. Let’s ignore the rates of growth for a while and find out where the U.S. stays in terms of real GDP level. Below is a table with quarterly real (in billions of chained 2005 US dollars) GDP estimates since 2007:
2007q1 13,089.3
2007q2 13,194.1
2007q3 13,268.5
2007q4 13,363.5
2008q1 13,339.2
2008q2 13,359.0
2008q3 13,223.5
2008q4 12,993.7
2009q1 12,832.6
2009q2 12,810.0
2009q3 12,860.8
2009q4 13,019.0
2010q1 13,138.8
2010q2 13,194.9
2010q3 13,278.5
2010q4 13,382.6
Well, the US has finally overcome by a 19 billion margin the level of 2007q4. At a healthy pace of 2.5% per year, the rise since 2007 should be around 1 trillion. Moreover, approximately 1% of real economic growth in the U.S. is associated with the overall population increase by 1% per year. In the fourth quarter of 2007, real GDP per capita was $44.292 (civilian population in December 2007 - 301,710,949) and in the same quarter of 2010 - only $43.255. The overall decrease in real GDP per capita since 2007 is 2.3%.
2007q1 13,089.3
2007q2 13,194.1
2007q3 13,268.5
2007q4 13,363.5
2008q1 13,339.2
2008q2 13,359.0
2008q3 13,223.5
2008q4 12,993.7
2009q1 12,832.6
2009q2 12,810.0
2009q3 12,860.8
2009q4 13,019.0
2010q1 13,138.8
2010q2 13,194.9
2010q3 13,278.5
2010q4 13,382.6
Well, the US has finally overcome by a 19 billion margin the level of 2007q4. At a healthy pace of 2.5% per year, the rise since 2007 should be around 1 trillion. Moreover, approximately 1% of real economic growth in the U.S. is associated with the overall population increase by 1% per year. In the fourth quarter of 2007, real GDP per capita was $44.292 (civilian population in December 2007 - 301,710,949) and in the same quarter of 2010 - only $43.255. The overall decrease in real GDP per capita since 2007 is 2.3%.
iPhone
My favorite 3 iPhone apps: T-Pain
We're starting a new series at TUAW called "My favorite 3 iPhone apps" -- and to kick it off, we're starting with rapper T-Pain. We caught up with the AutoTune master himself at CES promoting the I Am T-pain microphone, based on the ...
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iPhone
Layar Player lets AR loose on iPhone apps - Engadget
Layar's been the go-to platform for augmented reality on Android since 2009, bringing you the useful, the creepy, and the just plain weird -- and.
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iPhone 4 vs LG Optimus 2X: Video Recording Quality Comparison
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BBC iPlayer app for iPhone and iPad to be released in February
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iPhone 4 glass spawns class action lawsuit
Someone should point out to Mr. LeBuhn that an iPhone is actually a minature computer. It is not intended to be dropped. Perhaps if he gets that through his thick skull (which is obviously much thicker and harder than the glass on his ...
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Navigon rolls out iPhone Car Kit for $50 - Engadget
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Verizon iPhone Pre-Orders to Start at 3am ET on February 3rd .
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Verizon iPhone Listings Go Live on Apple's Site [Update: Removed .
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My Response to Obama's SOTU Address
My response to Obama's State of the Union speech tonight is brief. Maybe it was the garden-hose-to-wildfire approach to debt of Obama's promise to "freeze annual domestic spending for the next five years."
So here's my official response (h/t GEICO):
So here's my official response (h/t GEICO):
iPhone
HeyTell for iPhone and Android
Phone calls suck because you're stuck talking to someone in real time. Text messages suck because we all have Godzilla thumbs compared to the keys on these ridiculous touchscreen keyboards. There must be another way. There is!
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Autodesk stock price to rise in 2011Q1
When modeling stock prices by decomposition into two CPI components and linear time trend we exercise two different time periods: after January 1994 and after June 2003. The reason for this separation is simple – the difference between individual CPI components is usually characterized by the presence of several linear trends. When linear trend in the difference between two defining CPI components has a pivot point relevant stock model also has a break in all coefficients. Therefore, we usually prefer to avoid this type of bias and limit our modeling to the period after June 2003 when all turns in many CPI difference did happen after the 2001 recession. This shorter modeling period significantly influences the resolution of the model and we would prefer to use longer time series when possible.
The model for Autodesk (ADSK) is an excellent example of the possibility to extend the modeling period back to 1994. The resulting model has a deterministic character and predicts the share price evolution at a several month horizon. Our model for ADSK is stable over the past year and is defined by expected indices: the consumer price index of motor vehicle maintenance and repair (MVR) and the index of information technology, hardware and software (IT). The latter defining index definitely has tight relations to ADSK.
The MVR index leads the share price by 5 months and the IT one - by 8 months. Figure 1 depicts the overall evolution of the difference between the involved indices. As discussed above, no change in the trend has been observed since 1994. Hence, the final share price model for ADSK should not be biased by the change in the trend.
These two defining CPI components provide the best fit model between June 2010 and December 2010. The MVR coefficient is negative and thus the increasing price of motor vehicle maintenance and repair causes the share price to fall. The IT index has a positive coefficient but the long-term decrease in this index also causes the share to fall. The slope of time trend is positive revealing the price tendency to increase over time. The best-fit 2-C model for an ADSK(t) share price is as follows:
ADSK(t) = -3.97MVR(t-5) + 2.18IT(t-8) + 35.25(t-1990) + 265.90
where t is calendar time.
The predicted and observed curves are presented in Figure 2. The residual error is $4.75 for the period between January 1994 and December 2010. The model provides a relatively good prediction of the share price in the past. Currently, the predicted price shows a strong tendency to rise. One should expect the ADSK price to grow fast in the first quarter of 2011.
Figure 1. Evolution of the difference between MVR and IT. No change in the long-term sustainable linear trend is observed.
Figure 2. Observed and predicted ADSK share prices.
iPhone
Verizon to Offer iPhone With $30 Unlimited Data Plan - Mac Rumors
The Wall Street Journal reports that Verizon will in fact be offering an unlimited data plan for the iPhone when the device goes on sale next month, pricing the offering at $30 per month on top of cus.
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Unemployment in Australia
Following the previous post on inflation in Australia, we present a similar model for the rate of unemployment .
It has been empirically revealed and statistically tested that the rate of unemployment, in developed countries is a linear function of the change in labor force. We expect the same relationship to be valid for Australia. A simple trial-and-error method applied to cumulative unemployment published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at a monthly rate (see Figure 1) allows to accurately estimating both coefficient in the linear relation:
UE(t) = -2.1dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.0977; t>1995
UE(t) = -2.1dLF(t)/LF(t) + 0.131; t<1996 (1)
Because of the change in monetary policy around 1995, we had to split the modeled period into two segments: before and after 1995. The above relationships show that only free term did change in 1996 from +0.131 to +0.099. The slope in the linear relationship is the same over the entire period. All in all, the agreement between the annual and cumulative curves is excellent. One can predict the rate of unemployment at any time horizon using labor force projections. We have failed to find any projection published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics except the one between 1999 and 2016. Unfortunately, this projection was all wrong and heavily underestimated the growth in labor force. It predicted the level of labor force in 2016 at 10,800,000. In December 2010, the level of labor force was 12,132,900. This is good news, however. According to (1), a higher rate of labor force results in a lower rate of unemployment.
Figure 1. Upper panel. Monthly estimates of the rate of unemployment in Australia and that obtained from labor force using (1). Due to high-amplitude fluctuations in the monthly estimates of dLF/LF, the predicted curve is smoothed by a twelve-month moving average, MA(12). Lower panel. Cumulative values of the observed and predicted curves in the upper panel. Notice excellent agreement between the cumulative curves.
iPhone
Handyscope attachment turns your iPhone into a dermatoscope, no .
Just think -- a decade from now, you won't even need to spend eight grueling years in the books to be able to practice medicine.
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McAdams Means to Micromanage Mom (Updated)
Utah State Senator Ben McAdams (D-02) thinks we need more laws to enable us to be good citizens. McAdams is working on (le.utah.gov) and has verbally committed to introduce (SL Tribune, Dec 29 2010) a bill short-titled "Leaving a Child Unattended in a Motor Vehicle." The bill seeks to make criminals out of parents who leave their children unattended in a motor vehicle.
While no one is advocating children be left alone in a motor vehicle, these decisions should be left to the parent, not the state. Parents are already charged by law with the safe rearing of their children. If something were to happen to an unattended child, the parent could under existing state law be held accountable. Why do we need more than this?
In the article "More Nanny State" Paul Mero of Utah's Sutherland Institute responds to the proposed McAdams bill by pointing out that leaving a child unattended doesn't necessarily harm the child, or cause a crime:
++++ Update 1/27: McAdams' bill now has life as S.B. 124
While no one is advocating children be left alone in a motor vehicle, these decisions should be left to the parent, not the state. Parents are already charged by law with the safe rearing of their children. If something were to happen to an unattended child, the parent could under existing state law be held accountable. Why do we need more than this?
In the article "More Nanny State" Paul Mero of Utah's Sutherland Institute responds to the proposed McAdams bill by pointing out that leaving a child unattended doesn't necessarily harm the child, or cause a crime:
In his blog today "Legislating Away Your Liberties", Connor Boyack would have us take a serious look at the incessant cry for expanding legislation:And then there’s this sentence from the [SL Tribune] article: “McAdams said the problem with using existing child-abuse laws in Utah to prosecute people is a requirement in the law to prove that the child was harmed.” Imagine that – someone has to prove that a crime has been committed to be able to prosecute the crime! (Mero Moment, Jan 4 2011)
Connor continues that the solution is to simplify law and thus liberate the citizenry:The constant wave of new laws does not reflect a productive legislature which takes seriously the powers entrusted to it by the people. Rather, it reflects a messy patchwork of legislative “fixes” for a wide variety of ever-present problems that distract and emotionally captivate those who cry out “there ought to be a law!” (Connor's Conundrums, Jan 24, 2011)
Rather than legislating, start repealing. Instead of focusing inordinate amount of time on generally unimportant statutory tweaks, look for ways to restore lost liberty by removing entire chunks of the Utah Code. In short, we need less laws, not more. (Ibid.)I couldn't have put it any better than Connor. Perhaps we need a 45-day de-legislation process following our current session to get rid of all the micromanaging laws we have encumbered ourselves with. We certainly don't need a micromanaging Mom bill such as McAdams plans to unleash this session.
++++ Update 1/27: McAdams' bill now has life as S.B. 124
Inflation in Australia
This is an earlier report on the quantitative model of price inflation in Australia. We use our general approach well described in this blog.
Introduction
To create an inflation model for Australia we use our concept linking inflation solely to the change in labor force. As for other developed countries we use data obtained from various sources. Because of definitional and measuring problems data compatibility over time is not routinely provided by statistical agencies and one has to check for artificial breaks in data series. The OECD reports the following:
Series breaks: A new questionnaire was introduced in 2001 and employment and unemployment series were re-estimated from 1986. From April 1986, employment data include unpaid family workers having worked less than 15 hours in a family business or on a farm. Previously, such persons who worked 1 to 14 hours or who had such a job but were not at work, were defined as either unemployed or not in the labor force, depending on whether they were actively looking for work.
Many central banks shifted their monetary policy to inflation targeting around 1995. This can also introduce a break in underlying time series and the generalized dependence between three economic variables under study. This is the case for France.
The data
Here we introduce the estimates of all variables used in the study. There are two time series for inflation, unemployment and the level of labor force. Figures 1 and 2 introduce the overall behavior of all time series.
Figure 1. Upper panel: Comparison of CPI inflation and GDP deflator in Australia. Lower panel: Comparison of two estimates of unemployment according to US and OECD definitions.
Figure 2. Comparison of two estimates of the change rate of labor force level – according to the OECD and US definition (BLS).
The Phillips curve
Here we plot the rate of unemployment in Australia against reduced CPI inflation. The period between 1974 and 1994 shows a relatively good agreement, but then the curves diverge. This might be related to the new central bank monetary policy, as observed in France. All in all, the Phillips curve does not exist in Australia for the entire period between 1978 and 2009, i.e. for the period of accurate measurements presented by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Figure 3. Upper panel: Comparison of the measured unemployment (US definition) and that predicted from the CPI inflation according to the relationship obtained in the lower panel. The curves are close between 1974 and 1994. The following deviation might result from changes in monetary policy after 1994 and also be associated with revisions to corresponding definitions and measuring procedures. Lower panel: Scatter plot and linear regression of the CPI inflation and unemployment between 1974 and 1994.
Inflation as a linear function of the change in labor force
According to the change in definition of labor force in 1986, as described above, we have slit the period after 1978 (the start of reliable measurements (as reported by the Australian Bureaus of Statistics) into two segments and obtained the following models for inflation (GDP deflator) :
DGDP(t) = 4.2dLF(t)/LF(t) – 0.042; t>1985
DGDP(t) = 7.8dLF(t)/LF(t) – 0.024; t<1986 (1)
Figures 4 and 5 display the observed DGDP curve and that predicted according to (1).
Figure 4. Modeling of unemployment using the change rate of labor force level. Coefficients in the linear relationship are presented in the text and obtained by the trial-and-error method to fit the cumulative curves in Figure 5 between 1978 and 2009.
Figure 5. Modeling the cumulative GDP deflator as a function of the change rate of labor force level. The break in 1985 is explained by the changes in definition the labor force definition and corresponding measurement procedure.
Figure 6. Absolute and relative modeling error for the cumulative inflation in Figure 5. The curves converge in relative terms and one can replace the price deflator with the growth in labor force with the accuracy incrasing with time.
Generalized model for the link between labor force, inflation and unemployment
Because of breaks in the definition of labor force and unemployment/inflation relationship in 1995 (as shown in Figure 3) we spit the entire period of modeling into three segments:
CPI(t) = 3.9dLF(t)/LF(t) +0.88UE(t) - 0.1; t>1995
CPI(t) = 3.9dLF(t)/LF(t) +0.97UE(t) - 0.1; 1985
CPI(t) = 8.3dLF(t)/LF(t) +0.97UE(t) - 0.1; t<1986 (2)
Figure 7 presents the model.
Figure 7. Upper panel: Illustration of the generalized relation between inflation, unemployment and the change rate of labor force leveling Australia. The CPI inflation is modeled using the change rate of labor force level and unemployment. Lower panel: Cumulative curves use to estimate all coefficients in defining relationships (2).
Conclusion
Price inflation in Australia is a one-off function of the change in labor force. This conclusion validates earlier models for many developed countries: the US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, Sweden, Austria, and Switzerland.
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iPhone
White iPhone 4 Option Appears in AT%26T's Online Account Management .
Following our report last week about the white iPhone 4 appearing in an internal Best Buy inventory database with a February 27th release date and similar reports of listing sightings with Vodafone.
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iPad 2 Announcement Coming 9th February
As the iPad 2 gets closer to the "rumored launch", we are now hearing that Apple [AAPL] might be announcing it on February 9th.
Reasons for this are a little different than you'd probably expect. The normal route is that we hear a conference center has been booked out by Apple and then a cryptic invite arrives shortly after. This time, it's related to the press images used that show the original iPad, and some images found in iOS 4.3.
The original press images show a calendar date as 27 January which was the date the first iPad was introduced last year. In the new iOS 4.3 beta that just arrived, a screen shot of the iPad is available (for wallpaper purposes) that shows a date of the 9th February.
As we say, it's an unusual way of looking in to things but it's certainly a possibility that we'll get the new announcement on or around the 9th Feb ready for an April 2011 rumored launch date.
We'll post more details when we hear them.
EnjOy..:)
MamoOn..
iPhone
iPhone Query - The Washington Note
Clemons iPhone.PNG. There must be a few iPhone geniuses out there. I just downloaded several hundred pictures from my iPhone to my computer -- and this is one that downloaded with them. I had calls from TPM Media's publisher Josh ...
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A Crisis Caused by an Ambiguous Map: Utah's District 57 (Update)
For the past fortnight or so, the residents of Utah's House District 57 (a newer portion of Cedar Hills in Utah County) represented by Craig Frank and to a smaller extent the state at large, has been perplexed by an accidental discovery by Frank that he didn't live in his district according to state records: a requirement stipulated by the Utah Constitution.
For me1, there has been a plethora of confusion over this dilemma as reported in the media which seems to have been finally put to rest by the information in the video below, from the District 57 group of voters "Our Vote Counts":
The video highlights that the state was relying on an oxymoronic map showing conflict between the words "city boundary" and the drawn city line whereas the county went with the city boundaries. The city boundaries were certified through several cycles of elections and Lt. Governors (who in Utah serve as Secretaries of State as we haven't that position). These points highlighted in the video and the group's website seem to be rather ignored in the Utah mass media which hasn't helped to alleviate my personal confusion and frustration over the matter.
It seems however, in light of Frank's resignation on Friday (Daily Herald) that there is working another solution as discussed on yesterday's Red Meat Radio (KTKK, 630AM): with a 2/3 supermajority required in both houses, pass SB 113 which would define the boundary for District 57 as the one which everyone has been happily using for the past decade. On the program, Rep. Hughes (R-51) cited concerns about the bill due to lawsuit concerns and appearances of gerrymandering.
Hughes' lawsuit concerns by Democratic operatives were balanced out during the program by the point that the residents of District 57 are threatening a lawsuit to protect their vote. Having been an early outspoken critic on the importance of non-gerrymandered results on upcoming reapportionment (themostsearched, Nov 2010) let me say this: declaring (or moving, whichever be your position) the lines for district 57 contains NO FORM of gerrymandering, but rather righting what has been supposed and incontrovertible all along. Indeed, it seems that any alternative other than this could be considered gerrymandering or at minimum deprecating the will of the voters.
Has anyone speculated if Matheson would still be in office if the lines that the state now upholds were enforced? In 2002, liberal Democrat Matheson won a squeaker against John Swallow and District 57 is staunch and loudspoken conservative. Surely numerous dilemmas such as this could be posed. Without diminishing the plausibility of other solutions, I wholeheartedly support SB 113 and with the state legislature convening tomorrow, urge its passage.
A Time to Reconsider the Residency Requirement
An interesting related issue to all this is to note that while federal Congressional leaders can live outside their boundaries, according to the Utah State Constitution Utah state lawmakers cannot. Last October, I blogged about my opposition to Utah Constitutional Amendment B because it put increased requirements for state legislative office:
Found today's Daily Herald Editorial (h/t Joel Wright) "Honor in Resignation" which helps clarify that Frank resigned specifically for the passage of SB113. The editorial also links the Laura Cabanilla issue here in Provo to which as a resident I concur: Cabanilla definitely should step down. To quote the Herald: "Elective office is not a right or a personal possession."
1 As some setting disclosures, while I am not a resident of District 57, in a few months my son will be a registered voter of the District. I like Craig Frank as a legislator and agree with him on most political issues and would most likely vote for him were I to live in the District. Conversely, I am not a Frank partisan whereby I feel it my duty to uphold Frank over law because of my regard for him.
For me1, there has been a plethora of confusion over this dilemma as reported in the media which seems to have been finally put to rest by the information in the video below, from the District 57 group of voters "Our Vote Counts":
The video highlights that the state was relying on an oxymoronic map showing conflict between the words "city boundary" and the drawn city line whereas the county went with the city boundaries. The city boundaries were certified through several cycles of elections and Lt. Governors (who in Utah serve as Secretaries of State as we haven't that position). These points highlighted in the video and the group's website seem to be rather ignored in the Utah mass media which hasn't helped to alleviate my personal confusion and frustration over the matter.
It seems however, in light of Frank's resignation on Friday (Daily Herald) that there is working another solution as discussed on yesterday's Red Meat Radio (KTKK, 630AM): with a 2/3 supermajority required in both houses, pass SB 113 which would define the boundary for District 57 as the one which everyone has been happily using for the past decade. On the program, Rep. Hughes (R-51) cited concerns about the bill due to lawsuit concerns and appearances of gerrymandering.
Hughes' lawsuit concerns by Democratic operatives were balanced out during the program by the point that the residents of District 57 are threatening a lawsuit to protect their vote. Having been an early outspoken critic on the importance of non-gerrymandered results on upcoming reapportionment (themostsearched, Nov 2010) let me say this: declaring (or moving, whichever be your position) the lines for district 57 contains NO FORM of gerrymandering, but rather righting what has been supposed and incontrovertible all along. Indeed, it seems that any alternative other than this could be considered gerrymandering or at minimum deprecating the will of the voters.
Has anyone speculated if Matheson would still be in office if the lines that the state now upholds were enforced? In 2002, liberal Democrat Matheson won a squeaker against John Swallow and District 57 is staunch and loudspoken conservative. Surely numerous dilemmas such as this could be posed. Without diminishing the plausibility of other solutions, I wholeheartedly support SB 113 and with the state legislature convening tomorrow, urge its passage.
A Time to Reconsider the Residency Requirement
An interesting related issue to all this is to note that while federal Congressional leaders can live outside their boundaries, according to the Utah State Constitution Utah state lawmakers cannot. Last October, I blogged about my opposition to Utah Constitutional Amendment B because it put increased requirements for state legislative office:
If the citizens feel like someone is being a carpetbagger, then let the citizens have freedom through our competitive caucus system to elect someone else.
Although Amendment B passed by nearly 85%--a larger margin than any of the four proposed Amendments--it was widely dismissed as a positive which should be passed. In fact the voter information pamphlet even lacked a "Argument Against" to give voters a pause to think about the consequences of extending residency requirements. Perhaps the crisis surrounding Frank's eligibility may help to demonstrate that there can be unforeseen and unwanted consequences to having a residency requirement for legislators as part of our state's Constitution.
++++ Update: 6pm:Found today's Daily Herald Editorial (h/t Joel Wright) "Honor in Resignation" which helps clarify that Frank resigned specifically for the passage of SB113. The editorial also links the Laura Cabanilla issue here in Provo to which as a resident I concur: Cabanilla definitely should step down. To quote the Herald: "Elective office is not a right or a personal possession."
1 As some setting disclosures, while I am not a resident of District 57, in a few months my son will be a registered voter of the District. I like Craig Frank as a legislator and agree with him on most political issues and would most likely vote for him were I to live in the District. Conversely, I am not a Frank partisan whereby I feel it my duty to uphold Frank over law because of my regard for him.
iPhone
Apple Features Both AT%26T and Verizon in iPhone Ad - Mac Rumors
The advertising push continues to grow for the new Verizon iPhone. After the teaser ad for the Verizon iPhone, Apple has started airing their own ad featuring both AT%26T and Verizon. Existing Ver.
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iPhone
Verizon iPhone 4 costs $50 more than AT%26T iPhone 4 off contract .
While both AT%26T and Verizon sell the iPhone 4 for $199 or $299 depending on storage capacity, both cellular providers sell them for different off-contract prices. This important difference can be seen on the bottom of Apple's iPhone ...
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Week 26
It's great to see progress each week in the construction. The basement walls are rapidly being completed and footings for the parking structures are in work. Now that the Ogden Temple is going to be closed on the second of April, I think I am even more anxious to see the Brigham City Temple completed!
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| North underground parking area |
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| South underground parking structure |
