By Burak Tansan
The recent volatility in the Turkish economy can mainly be attributed to concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve's phasing out of quantitative easing. Even though Turkey’s current-account deficit has been declining, it is still relatively large at 5.7 percent of GDP as of 2012. Turkey finances most of this deficit with foreign-capital inflows in the form of portfolio investments and short-term loans, so talk about Fed policy changes resulted in worries about Turkey's ability to continue financing its deficit.
Turkey's main challenge, therefore, is to further reduce its current-account deficit without compromising economic growth. Because around 60 percent of this deficit is generated by net energy imports, improving energy efficiency must be a priority. Turkey should also improve its efforts to attract foreign direct investment, which is a much more stable and value-adding source of financing than inflows of short-term external capital.
In the long term, Turkey has strong fundamentals that should continue to power economic growth well after the current volatility has abated. These advantages include the following:
- Well-Managed Public Finances. Turkey has a budget deficit of only around 2 percent of GDP, and public debt accounts for around 36 percent of GDP. That makes Turkey one of the few countries in Europe that meets the Maastricht criteria.
- A Very Healthy and Advanced Banking System. Turkey’s banking system has a capital-adequacy ratio of around 17 percent and a nonperforming loan ratio of less than 3 percent.
- Favorable Demographics. Turkey has the largest working-age population in Europe, and it is still growing. The average age is 29. Moreover, 6 million Turkish households are projected to enter the middle class over the next five years.
- A Unique Geopolitical Position. Turkey is located between Europe and Asia, which means that it is a bridge between rapidly developing economies and the developed world. Turkey offers access to 1 billion people living within four hours’ flying distance.
- Increase the value added of what it produces. Currently, Turkey's manufacturing exports are overly reliant on products assembled from imported components. As Turkish wages rise, it will be difficult to remain competitive. Moving up the value-added ladder will require greater investment in research and development. Currently, public and private R&D spending equals only around 1 percent of Turkish GDP. The government's ambitious goal is to increase that to 3 percent of GDP by 2023.
- Boost domestic savings. Currently, savings in Turkey amount to less than 15 percent of GDP. That is low for a developing economy. The government has taken some steps to make private pension plans more attractive. For example, for every Turkish lira that workers contribute to their own private retirement account, the government contributes an additional 25 percent—up to a limit.
- Continue to improve the investment climate. Industry has reacted well to new government incentives for investment in industries in which Turkey's trade deficit is particularly high. The climate could be further improved with a more transparent and predictable regulatory environment and a more efficient legal system.
Turkey in Cahoots with Al-Qaeda: We are bound to succeed together! Tesekkür ederiz!
Islam is a terrorist culture, not a religion. Basil Venitis, venitis@gmail.com, http://themostsearched.blogspot.com, @Venitis
The bully of East Mediterranean declared a casus-belli against Greece
Turkey has a casus-belli against Greece, a fellow NATO member, over the issue of continental shelf! Turkey demands Greek oil under the Aegean Sea! Moreover, Charles Aznavour overheard Erdogan state that he hates Armenians and Greeks! No wonder, Turkey refuses to apologize for the Armenian genocide, the Pontian genocide, and the Cypriot genocide.
Turkey still occupies Northern Cyprus, killing Cypriots, bringing Turkish settlers to Northern Cyprus, destroying Christian churches, looting Cypriot property, and terrorizing all people. Some Turcokleptocrats will eventually go to Hague for crimes against humanity. The Cypriot genocide continues up to this moment.
Turkey, the casus-belli-bully, is the world’s largest prison of journalists, bloggers, and generals. Erdogan has outlined his course declaring democracy is a streetcar. When you come to your stop, you get off. His dictatorial mentality can already be seen in such steps as challenging the independent judiciary, fostering nonsensical conspiracy theories to jail his opponents, imprisoning countless journalists, and issuing preposterous fines against unfriendly media companies.
These autocratic ways are growing over time. After a decade of reasonably democratic rule, impending crises signal Erdogan’s moment to get off the streetcar of democracy. As the AKP bares its fangs, Turkey further rejects Occident and grows to resemble a repressive stagnant theocracy. Ataturk’s country is no more. There are currently 30,000 pending complaints against Turkey in the European Court of Human Rights concerning violations of various political and personal freedoms.
Turkey needs to end its use of overly broad antiterrorism laws to hold thousands of activists and journalists, who have spoken out or engaged in the non-violent promotion of Kurdish rights, in prolonged detention. Tight government control of appointments to the national human rights institution and ombudsman undermine confidence in potentially important oversight mechanisms.
Turkey’s restrictions on freedom of expression are evident both in its laws and in the pattern of prosecutions and convictions under these laws. Turcokleptocrats’ intolerance of dissenting voices, extending as far as criticizing television soap operas, and their willingness to sue for defamation perpetuates a chilling climate for free speech. The campaign of arrests have intensified against Kurdish political activists, as well as students, journalists, human rights defenders, and trade unionists.
Impunity for serious human rights violations by Turcokleptocrats remains a huge challenge. Investigations into police violence lag behind investigations into the victims. Despite a commitment to reduce domestic violence with a new law designed to protect women from violence, the police and courts repeatedly fail to provide effective protection for women who try to file complaints.
Turkey and Fourth Reich pretend they want to unite! To get rid of the deep state of Ataturk, Caliph Erdogan hoodwinks that Turkey is eager to be enslaved to Fourth Reich. But Turkey already has a free trade agreement with Fourth Reich that allows it to manufacture for tariff-free sale throughout the Fourth Reich market. Turkey has a remarkable 8% growth, while Fourth Reich is in depression.
Turkey has the nerve to hoodwink about joining EU, while declaring casus belli against EU and occupying by brutal force a part of EU! EU is just scared of Turkey, the casus-belli-bully, which has the second largest army in NATO. 80% of EU citizens and 70% of Turks oppose Turkey’s membership to EU. EU cannot afford a clash of cultures within its borders. Graecoroman culture and Islamic culture cannot mix.
Pretrial detention in Turkey is being used as a punishment without trial. Turkey abuses civil liberties under the pretense of shutting down terrorist organizations. Turkey’s terrorism laws aren’t being used against terrorists. They’re used against innocent military officers, journalists, academics, defense lawyers, and ethnic Kurds accused of imaginary pseudoterrorist conspiracies. All charges are attacks on free speech. These freakish abuses are compounded by the routine manner in which disgusting Turkish judges agree to deny defendants bail. Many of the accused innocents have been in jail for years, some for a decade, as they await trial. This amounts to routine summary punishment of the presumed innocent.
Turkish preacher Fethullah Gulen is the most influential preacher of Islam in Occident. His followers have founded schools in 140 countries, banks, media companies, hospitals, insurance companies, universities, the largest Turkish newspaper Zaman, and the ruling party of Turkey AKP. The cemaat religious community educates its future leaders throughout the world in houses of light, a mixture of a shared student residence and a Koran school. Gulen is their guru, an ideologue who tolerates no dissent, and who is only interested in power and influence, not understanding and tolerance. Gulen dreams of a new age in which Islam will dominate Occident.
The houses of light are the foundation of the movement, where young Fethullahcis, followers of Gulen, are taught to become loyal servants. The residences exist in many countries, including Turkey, the United States, and Germany. There are two dozen in Berlin alone. The cemaat offers schoolchildren and university students a home, free of charge, and in return it expects them to devote their lives to hizmet, service to Islam.
Most civil servants are Fethullahcis. Gulen trained and supported them. When these grateful children assume office, they continue to serve Gulen. Fethullahcis hold ninety percent of senior positions in the Turkish police force! Fethullahci Erdogan was locked for six months in prison for publicly reciting a verse declaring the mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets - words considered by a court to be incitement to religious militancy. Now taking his revenge, CaliphErdogan has locked many thousands of Turks in prison!
Anyone who messes up with Erdogan, Gulen, or Kurdistan is destroyed. 200 innocent Turkish journalists are in jails, the highest incarceration rates for members of the news media in the world. 700 innocent Turkish military officers are also behind bars, wrongfully charged in a series of pseudoplots to topple the government with weird names such as Ergenekon, Sledgehammer, and Action Plan Against Reactionary Forces.
Turkish officers are resigning en masse to avoid arrest and sentencing for conspiracy against the government. Mass detentions of both serving and retired officers have been taking place in Turkey over the last decade. There are many trials against top brass accused of plotting against the ruling government.
Over at least the past half a century, the Turkish armed forces have been notorious for regular interference in domestic politics, organizing several coups to displace governments and generally having great influence on the political landscape. Turkish high brass has always been proud of staying guard of the secular nature of the Turkish state, the legacy of Kemal Ataturk.
In the eyes of the military AKP symbolizes the threat to Turkey's secularism, whereas Erdogan’s party eyes the armed forces as a dictator that has been telling the country what to do for too long. Twenty per cent of all Turkish 348 generals and admirals are currently locked behind bars.
In late January 2013 the exodus of Turkish officers from the army was given a new push. Famous Admiral Nusret Guner resigned over the detention of hundreds of his colleagues. His premature voluntary retirement sparked yet another wave of resignations. Guner says: In the past few years my comrades in arms, some of whom I know very closely and about whose patriotism I have never felt the slightest doubt, have been found guilty through verdicts handed down by courts in the name of the nation.
Two hundred Turkish Air Force officers followed the example of Guner’s resignation. These pilots say: well, no one really loves us, we’ve served the ten years minimum time, let’s just take our pensions and get a better job in a private sector.
The cases against the officers have been marked by forged documents, detentions without evidence, and an attempt to subordinate the military not to the institutions of the state but to Caliph Erdogan himself. Although many Turks do not support the military’s interference in the political system, they still see the legal proceedings against it as politically motivated. In that, they are correct: The downfall of the officers is the culmination of a highly undemocratic campaign to intimidate, harass, and imprison Erdogan’s opponents.
All suspect cases have been cooked up, with public opinion shaped by leaks to Fethullahci newspapers like Taraf and Zaman. Too much of the evidence is doubtful to believe the investigations are aimed at further democratization. Fethullahci prosecutors are hounding certain groups and individuals for political gain. The aggressive way in which these investigations are carried out shows the existence of a secret agenda or a hidden motive behind these operations against the army, intellectuals, academics, journalists. These cases have had a devastating impact on the morale of officers, and their focus if these cases are ever dropped will be trying to restore the morale of the officers rather than seeking to take revenge.
Pianist Fazil Say is an internationally acclaimed Turkish artist. He had to pay damages for insulting Muslim religious values on Twitter. Erdogan calls him a traitor to the nation. Many Turks quote Persian poet Omar Khayyam: You say that there are rivers of wine. Does that mean it is a heavenly bar? You say two virgins will be given to every believer. Does that mean it is a heavenly brothel? Say was one of the two hundred Twitter users to circulate the Khayyam quote, but he is the only one to face a trial for posing a risk to public order. Selective persecution is just a political tool.
Author and Nobel Prize winner Orhan Pamuk had to pay damages after he openly criticized the genocide of Armenians. Elif Shafak alos paid damages for broaching the same topic in her book, The bastard of Istanbul. Nedim Guersel, author of the novel Allah's Daughters, had to pay damages for blasphemy.
Media that criticize Caliph Erdogan have found themselves in financial trouble due to punitive fines and tax investigations. After the leading newspaper Hurriyet connected Erdogan to a charity scandal, Erdogan fined the publication’s corporate owner, the Dogan Group, $523 million for tax evasion, and then fined it again seven months later for $2.5 billion in unpaid taxes and other unspecified irregularities, putting the total amount owed higher than the value of the company itself. The campaign served as a warning to other media not to criticize Erdogan, and, alongside arrests and firings of unfriendly journalists, it has created a climate of fear.
Caliph Erdogan has limited the ability of ordinary Turks to question his power. The anxiety produced by Erdogan’s actions against journalists, the military, and politicians has produced a high degree of self-censorship. Erdogan has empowered special security courts to arrest citizens on suspicion of terrorism without evidence or any right to a hearing and has used judicial indictments to target those calling for greater autonomy for the Kurds. Erdogan has virtually taken over the Turkish Academy of Sciences, once a bastion of Kemalist orthodoxy.
Caliph Erdogan has also established a nationwide internet filtering system which blocks out most messages and most blogs that are against him, Turkishness, Islam, AKP, Fethullahcis, Gulen, the Ergenekon persecution, the Sledgehammer persecution, the Armenian genocide, the Pontian genocide, the occupation of Northern Kurdistan, and the occupation of Northern Cyprus!
Caliph Erdogan cannot control his vanity. He now wants to leave his own legend on the cityscape of Istanbul with a supermosque. Erdogan's supermosque will be built on the highest hill on the Asian side of the Bosphorus, will have a capacity of 30,000 worshippers, and bear six minarets taller than the Prophet's Mosque in Medina.
Vanity is a long Turkish tradition. On the European side, Sultan Suleiman put his legend on the city with the Suleymaniye Mosque, which could be seen everywhere from old Istanbul. Now Erdogan wants to put his own legend on the Asian side. Ottoman sultans adorned the hills of historic Istanbul with mosques dedicated to their victories. By building the supermosque, Erdogan is telling the world he is the new caliph.
Erdogan has won the battle with the old secular elite that emerged with the founding of the modern republic in 1923. Erdogan has muzzled the military, upholder of secularism, that had ousted four governments since 1960. Reforms in the military and the judiciary were promoted as complying with change demanded for entry to the European Union. Economic growth, outstripping EU, is driven increasingly by trade with Middle East.
Erdogan is embracing Istanbul's imperial past, when the Ottoman Empire sprawled across three continents. Erdogan plans to dig a 45-km channel linking the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara to ease congestion in the Bosphorus Strait. He proposes a new constitution, replacing the version written after a 1980 military coup and in the process creating a powerful executive presidency. Barred from running for prime minister again, Erdogan is widely expected to bid for the new presidency in 2014, cementing his status as Turkey's most significant leader since Kemal Ataturk.
Füle hoodwinks:
We are bound to succeed together! Tesekkür ederiz!
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